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OILS, a -5% lower target price
Current 282 Target 268 -5%

December 12th 2021
1 minute read

Sales growing 4% a quarter
  • Sales are up an annualized 15% in the third quarter from a year ago to an average 84 billion rupiah.
  • This means the quarterly average is 4% growth.
  • We predict average growth of another 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 99 billion rupiah by the third quarter of 2022.
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Costs at -98%, just profitable, forecast 2 billion rupiah a quarter
  • The cash cost ratio was at -98% as of the third quarter giving a 1 billion rupiah 9 months net profit.
  • The average Cashflow cost ratio is much higher at -119% now.
  • We use the latest -98% cost ratio to predict a higher 2 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.
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Cashflow very negative, forecast plus 2 billion rupiah
  • Free cashflow was -45 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -1 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at -15 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -0 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 2 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.

Balance sheet, higher leverage
  • Cash increased from 1 to 3 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased from 52 to 58 billion rupiah so net cash worsened from -52 to -55 billion rupiah.
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -2 billion rupiah equity payout net cash will improve to -49 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
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Valuation, more capital raised, a -5% lower target price
  • OILS capital from the last 15 quarters fell to -69 billion rupiah in the third quarter with 7 billion rupiah new liabilities & 41 billion rupiah new equity & will be -61 billion rupiah in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 128 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.90 X assets with a 17 years payback & a 2% yield.
  • Our 12 month cashflow forecast is 8 billion rupiah which means an 17 X valuation. A 16 X valuation gives a -5% lower target price of 268 rupiah.
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