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OILS, a -5% lower target price
Current 282 Target 268 -5%
December 12th 2021
1 minute read
Sales growing 4% a quarter
Costs at -98%, just profitable, forecast 2 billion rupiah a quarter
Cashflow very negative, forecast plus 2 billion rupiah
Balance sheet, higher leverage
Valuation, more capital raised, a -5% lower target price
1 minute read
Sales growing 4% a quarter
- Sales are up an annualized 15% in the third quarter from a year ago to an average 84 billion rupiah.
- This means the quarterly average is 4% growth.
- We predict average growth of another 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 99 billion rupiah by the third quarter of 2022.
Costs at -98%, just profitable, forecast 2 billion rupiah a quarter
- The cash cost ratio was at -98% as of the third quarter giving a 1 billion rupiah 9 months net profit.
- The average Cashflow cost ratio is much higher at -119% now.
- We use the latest -98% cost ratio to predict a higher 2 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.
Cashflow very negative, forecast plus 2 billion rupiah
- Free cashflow was -45 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -1 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -15 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -0 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 2 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
Balance sheet, higher leverage
- Cash increased from 1 to 3 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased from 52 to 58 billion rupiah so net cash worsened from -52 to -55 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -2 billion rupiah equity payout net cash will improve to -49 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Valuation, more capital raised, a -5% lower target price
- OILS capital from the last 15 quarters fell to -69 billion rupiah in the third quarter with 7 billion rupiah new liabilities & 41 billion rupiah new equity & will be -61 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 128 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.90 X assets with a 17 years payback & a 2% yield.
- Our 12 month cashflow forecast is 8 billion rupiah which means an 17 X valuation. A 16 X valuation gives a -5% lower target price of 268 rupiah.