OILS more negative cashflow
OILS Current 204 Target 190 -7%
October 9, 2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped 27%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-14% 12% 42% -4% 27%
77 86 122 117 149
Costs flat profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-98% -97% -98% -96% -96%
1 2 2 4 5
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
7 -57 6 1 -6
-3 5 -3 -2 -8
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
0 3 5 6 2
0 58 55 84 76
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
-15 -69 -67 -70 -79
3 -14 1 -3 -9
0 -40 1 0 0
October 9, 2022
1 minute read
- OILS last 12 months sales growth 5X average + 94%
- OILS last 12 months cash flow -69% of market cap
- OILS last 12 months Capital -69% of market cap
- OILS latest net cash -80% of market cap
Sales jumped 27%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-14% 12% 42% -4% 27%
77 86 122 117 149
- Sales jumped 27% in the second quarter to 149 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -38% now.
- This brings the average to 19% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 169 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs flat profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-98% -97% -98% -96% -96%
1 2 2 4 5
- The cash cost ratio was flat at -96% profit increased from 4 to 5 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -97% now.
- We use the latest -96% cost ratio to predict a 6 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
7 -57 6 1 -6
-3 5 -3 -2 -8
- Free cashflow went from -1 to -14 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -8 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -16 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -5 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives positive 1 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
0 3 5 6 2
0 58 55 84 76
- Cash declined 6 to 2 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 84 to 76 billion rupiah so net cash was up -78 to -74 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & 0 billion rupiah equity -5 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -69 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
-15 -69 -67 -70 -79
3 -14 1 -3 -9
0 -40 1 0 0
- OILS cumulative capital worsened -70 to -79 billion rupiah with -9 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be -74 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 93 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.49 X assets with a 30 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 5 billion rupiah (vs -64 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 17 X valuation. A 16 X valuation gives a -7% lower target price 190 rupiah.
