OBMD 6% yield forecast
OBMD Current 310 Target 330 + 6%
Sep 10, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 12%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
14% 16% 0% 41% 12%
16 19 19 26 29
Costs down profit flat
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-129% -116% -116% -142% -75%
-1 2 2 7 7
Cashflow positive
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
-4 -4 -4 -7 8
-1 0 0 -0 -1
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
0 0 28 21 25
0 0 12 12 11
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
7 -9 -24 -24 -22
-2 1 1 0 3
0 -17 -17 0 0
Sep 10, 2022
1 minute read
- OBMD last 12 months sales growth 4X average + 81%
- OBMD last 12 months cash flow -3% of market cap
- OBMD last 12 months Capital -12% of market cap
- OBMD latest net cash + 6% of market cap
Sales grew 12%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
14% 16% 0% 41% 12%
16 19 19 26 29
- Sales grew 12% in the second quarter to 29 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is not applicable yet.
- This brings the average to 17% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 32 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs down profit flat
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-129% -116% -116% -142% -75%
-1 2 2 7 7
- The cash cost ratio went from -142% to -75% profit was flat at 7 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -112% now.
- We use the latest -75% cost ratio to predict a 7 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow positive
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
-4 -4 -4 -7 8
-1 0 0 -0 -1
- Free cashflow went from -7 to 7 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -1 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -2 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -1 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 6 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
0 0 28 21 25
0 0 12 12 11
- Cash increased 21 to 25 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 12 to 11 billion rupiah so net cash was up 9 to 14 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -14 billion rupiah equity payout -2 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be 24 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
7 -9 -24 -24 -22
-2 1 1 0 3
0 -17 -17 0 0
- OBMD cumulative capital improved -24 to -22 billion rupiah with + 3 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be -5 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 227 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.8 X assets with a 4 years payback & a 6% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 24 billion rupiah (vs -7 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 9 X valuation. A 10 X valuation gives a 6% higher target price 330 rupiah.
