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NRCA dull with negative cashflow again
NRCA Current 288 Target 323 + 12%
Jun 20, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -2%
Last 5 quarters
-17% -8% 17% 75% -2%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-97% -99% -97% -94% -94%
Cashflow negative again
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
17, -42, -55, 209, -168
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-458 -524 -584 -481 -702
Capital paid worsened , a 12% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
173, 209, 204, 385, 187
Jun 20, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -2%
Last 5 quarters
-17% -8% 17% 75% -2%
- Sales declined -2% in the first quarter to 630 billion rupiah 43% above our 441 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 20% growth.
- We predict average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 755 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-97% -99% -97% -94% -94%
- The cash cost ratio went from -94% to -94% profit from 35 to 33 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -96% now.
- We use the average -96% cost ratio to predict a 27 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative again
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
17, -42, -55, 209, -168
- Free cashflow went negative again from 209 to -168 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -5 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -14 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -5 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a positive 24 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-458 -524 -584 -481 -702
- Cash increased 495 to 525 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 976 to 1,227 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -481 to -702 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -30 billion rupiah equity payout -61 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -641 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid worsened , a 12% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
173, 209, 204, 385, 187
- NRCA 25 quarter capital paid worsened 385 to 187 billion rupiah in the first quarter with +198 billion rupiah liabilities but will be 279 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 696 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.29 X assets with a 21 years payback & a 4% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 92 billion rupiah which means an 8 X valuation. A 9 X valuation gives a 12% higher target price 323 rupiah .