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Picture
NRCA.jk Cashflow more positive

Current 294 Target 322 + 10%

1/8/2023
1 minute read

  • Last 12 months sales growth + 66%
  • Last 12 months cash flow + 18% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) -2% of market cap
  • Latest cash minus liabilities -101% of market cap

Sales grew 16%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly ales
17% 75% -2% -16% 16%
368 ; 645 ; 630 ; 528 ; 611 billion rupiah
  • Sales grew 16% in the third quarter to 611 billion rupiah ; our total forecasts v actual sales are + 9% now.
  • This brings the average to 18% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 673 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.

Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
3% 6% 6% 3% 4%
8 ; 35 ; 33 ; 11 ; 23 billion rupiah
  • The cash margin went from 3% to 4% profit from 11 to 23 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at 5% now.
  • We use a 5% cash margin to predict a 28 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.

Cashflow more positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
-55 ; 213 ; -163 ; 35 ; 60 billion rupiah
-0 ; -4 ; -5 ; -3 ; -5 billion rupiah
  • Free cashflow went from 33 to 55 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -5 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 32 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -5 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 28 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.

Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
468 ; 495 ; 525 ; 543 ; 608 billion rupiah
1,052 ; 976 ; 1,227 ; 1,279 ; 1,328 billion rupiah
  • Cash increased 543 to 608 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 1,279 to 1,328 billion rupiah so net cash was up -736 to -720 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -111 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -609 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
-5 ; 181 ; -198 ; -22 ; -9 billion rupiah
0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 36 ; 0 billion rupiah
  • NRCA.jk (raised) -9 billion rupiah in the third quarter -9 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity, will pay 111 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market cap of 711 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.28 X assets with a 17 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 111 billion rupiah which means a 6 X valuation. A 7 X valuation gives a 10% higher target price 322 rupiah.
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