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NRCA, a 23% higher target price
Current 288 Target 355 +23%

November 27th 2021
1 minute read
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Sales jumped 17%
  • Sales jumped 17% in the third quarter to 368 billion rupiah vs our 321 billion rupiah forecast.
  • This brings the quarterly average to -8% growth.
  • We predict positive average growth of 9% to bring sales to 518 billion rupiah in the third quarter of 2022.
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Costs 2 points lower, but higher above 100% in cashflow
  • The cash cost ratio was at -97% in the third quarter giving a 8 billion rupiah net profit.
  • The average Cashflow cost ratio is higher at -107% now.
  • We use the latest -97% cost ratio to predict a 12 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.
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Cashflow more negative, but expected positive
  • Free cashflow was more negative, -42 to -55 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -0 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at -18 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume the same -0 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a positive 15 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
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Balance sheet, higher leverage
  • Cash declined from 518 to 468 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased from 1,042 to 1,052 billion rupiah so net cash worsened from -524 to -584 billion rupiah.
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -4 billion rupiah equity payout net cash will be -535 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
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Valuation, a 23% higher target price
  • NRCA capital from the last 23 quarters declined to 204 billion rupiah in the third quarter with a 5 billion rupiah increase in liabilities but will increase to 258 billion rupiah in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 696 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.32 X assets with a 32 years payback & a 1% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 54 billion rupiah which means an 13 X valuation. A 16 X valuation gives a 23% higher target price of 355 rupiah.
Data file & model
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