NKE more capital paid
Current 120 Target 145 + 20%
Mar 18, 2023
1 minute read
Sales grew 5%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly sales
-7% -4% 13% 4% 5%
11,357 ; 10,871 ; 12,234 ; 12,687 ; 13,315 million dollars
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash profit margin, net profit
15% 15% 12% 14% 12%
1,337 ; 1,396 ; 1,439 ; 1,468 ; 1,331 million dollars
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
2,757 ; 169 ; 1,151 ; 357 ; -715 million dollars
-1,606 ; -606 ; 187 ; -214 ; 191 million dollars
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
10,751 ; 8,704 ; 8,574 ; 7,226 ; 6,490 million dollars
23,993 ; 23,768 ; 25,040 ; 25,266 ; 24,375 million dollars
More capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
67 ; 40 ; 0 ; -33 ; 104 million dollars
1,036 ; 1,570 ; 1,380 ; 1,381 ; 1,869 million dollars
Mar 18, 2023
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 17%, vs 2019 +27%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 0% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) + 3% of market cap
- Latest cash minus liabilities -10% of market cap
- 4.76X assets with a 6 years payback
Sales grew 5%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly sales
-7% -4% 13% 4% 5%
11,357 ; 10,871 ; 12,234 ; 12,687 ; 13,315 million dollars
- Sales grew 5% in the fourth quarter to 13,315 million dollars .
- This brings the quarterly average to 4% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 14,443 million dollars in the fourth quarter 2023.
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash profit margin, net profit
15% 15% 12% 14% 12%
1,337 ; 1,396 ; 1,439 ; 1,468 ; 1,331 million dollars
- The cash profit margin went from 14% to 12% net profit from 1,468 to 1,331 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
- The average margin is at 13% now.
- We use a 13% cash profit margin to predict a 1,705 million dollars net profit in the fourth quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
2,757 ; 169 ; 1,151 ; 357 ; -715 million dollars
-1,606 ; -606 ; 187 ; -214 ; 191 million dollars
- Free cashflow went from 143 to -524 million dollars in the fourth quarter with 191 million dollars investment cashflow & negative working capital.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 130 million dollars now.
- We assume -111 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 1,704 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
10,751 ; 8,704 ; 8,574 ; 7,226 ; 6,490 million dollars
23,993 ; 23,768 ; 25,040 ; 25,266 ; 24,375 million dollars
- Cash declined 7,226 to 6,490 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
- Liabilities declined 25,266 to 24,375 million dollars so net cash was up -18,040 to -17,885 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -7,703 million dollars equity payout + 889 million dollars liabilities net cash will be -18,774 million dollars in 12 months time.
More capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
67 ; 40 ; 0 ; -33 ; 104 million dollars
1,036 ; 1,570 ; 1,380 ; 1,381 ; 1,869 million dollars
- NKE paid 1,973 million dollars in the fourth quarter 104 million dollars liabilities 1,869 million dollars equity, will pay 6,814 million dollars this next 12 months.
- At the current market cap of 186,672 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 4.76 X assets with a 6 years payback & a 4% yield forecast.
- Our cashflow forecast is 6,814 million dollars which means a 27 X valuation. A 33 X valuation gives a 20% higher target price 145 dollars.