NISP a 10% yield
NISP Current 700 Target 1,066 + 52%
Aug 4, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -1%
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
3,124 2,975 3,178 3,445 3,422
Costs up profit up on lower provisions
Last 5 quarters
-64% -60% -54% -64% -66%
Cashflow higher, last 12 months + 132% of market cap!
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,764 8,947 -4,710 1,334 15,699
Non cash assets declined-8%
Last 5 quarters
-2% 1% 4% 5% -8%
Capital improved, last 12 months + 5% of market cap
Last 5 quarters sales to assets
1,290 1,632 1,632 1,632 2,137
Aug 4, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -1%
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
3,124 2,975 3,178 3,445 3,422
- Sales declined -1% in the second quarter to 3,422 billion rupiah 1% above our 3,376 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 2% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% again in this next 12 months to bring sales to 3,942 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit up on lower provisions
Last 5 quarters
-64% -60% -54% -64% -66%
- The cash cost ratio went from -64% to -66%, provisions 575 to 81 billion rupiah, so profit jumped from 621 to 1,028 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -61% now.
- We use a -60% cost ratio, -81 billion rupiah provisions, to predict a higher 1,428 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher, last 12 months + 132% of market cap!
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,764 8,947 -4,710 1,334 15,699
- Free cashflow went from 1,334 to 15,699 billion rupiah in the second quarter with 1,161 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 5,317 billion rupiah now with a large income from selling government bonds.
- We assume -16 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 1,529 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Non cash assets declined-8%
Last 5 quarters
-2% 1% 4% 5% -8%
- Non cash assets growth went from 5% to -8%, average growth is 0% the last 12 months.
- Sales to assets went from 1.6% to 1.8%, the average is 1.6% the last 12 months.
- We use average assets growth of 2%, sales to assets 1.9% in our forecasts.
Capital improved, last 12 months + 5% of market cap
Last 5 quarters sales to assets
1,290 1,632 1,632 1,632 2,137
- NISP 14 quarter cumulative capital improved 1,632 to 2,137 billion rupiah in the second quarter with 0 billion rupiah from liabilities + 505 billion rupiah from equity & will be 3,821 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 16,062 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at a 10% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 6,117 billion rupiah which means a 3 X valuation. A 4 X valuation gives a 52% higher target price 1,066 rupiah.
