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Picture
Picture

NISP.jk Sales grew 33%

Current 775 Target 1,103 + 42%

Feb 2, 2023
1 minute read

  • Last 12 months sales growth + 24%
  • Last 12 months cash flow + 15% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) + 3% of market cap
  • Latest cash minus liabilities -1,059% of market cap

Sales grew 33%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly sales
7% 8% -1% -14% 33%
3,178 ; 3,445 ; 3,422 ; 2,956 ; 3,946 billion rupiah
  • Sales grew 33% in the fourth quarter to 3,946 billion rupiah .
  • This brings the quarterly average to 7% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 4,267 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 2023.
​
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash profit margin, net profit
46% 36% 34% 46% 32%
485 ; 621 ; 1,028 ; 899 ; 779 billion rupiah
  • The cash profit margin went from 46% to 32% net profit from 899 to 779 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
  • The average margin is at 37% now.
  • We use a 32% cash profit margin to predict a 936 billion rupiah net profit in the fourth quarter 2023.

Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
4,709 ; -13,162 ; 14,524 ; -11,188 ; -1,779 billion rupiah
-9,419 ; 14,493 ; 1,161 ; -6,534 ; 5,234 billion rupiah
  • Free cashflow went from -17,723 to 3,455 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with 5,234 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 687 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -55 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 1,274 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.

Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
12,061 ; 13,464 ; 28,919 ; 11,363 ; 14,632 billion rupiah
182,068 ; 193,141 ; 190,654 ; 187,211 ; 204,288 billion rupiah
  • Cash increased 11,363 to 14,632 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 187,211 to 204,288 billion rupiah so net cash was down -175,848 to -189,656 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -1,084 billion rupiah equity payout -4,014 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -185,642 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 2 billion rupiah
0 ; 0 ; 505 ; 0 ; 0 billion rupiah
  • NISP.jk paid 2 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 2 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity, will pay 5,098 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market cap of 17,906 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.08 X assets with a 44 years payback & a 6% yield forecast.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 5,098 billion rupiah which means a 4 X valuation. A 5 X valuation gives a 42% higher target price 1,103 rupiah.
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