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Picture
NIKL.jk Cashflow more negative

Current 650 Target 603 -7%

1/1/2023
1 minute read


  • Last 12 months sales growth + 29%
  • Last 12 months cash flow -25% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) -23% of market cap
  • Latest cash minus liabilities -110% of market cap
​
Sales grew 3%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterlysales
18% 30% 8% -11% 3%
746 ; 971 ; 1,047 ; 931 ; 963 billion rupiah
  • Sales grew 3% in the third quarter to 963 billion rupiah ; our total forecasts v actual sales are -1% now.
  • This brings the average to 8% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,082 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.

Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
7% 3% 7% 1% 2%
33 ; 16 ; 66 ; 16 ; 28 billion rupiah
  • The cash margin went from 1% to 2% profit from 16 to 28 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at 3% now.
  • We use a 4% cash margin to predict a 50 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.

Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
-148 ; -16 ; -231 ; -66 ; -79 billion rupiah
-5 ; -18 ; 0 ; -1 ; -4 billion rupiah
  • Free cashflow went from -67 to -82 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -4 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at -103 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -4 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 42 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.

Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
444 ; 400 ; 553 ; 471 ; 471 billion rupiah
1,791 ; 1,899 ; 2,298 ; 2,155 ; 2,277 billion rupiah
  • Cash was flat at 471 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 2,155 to 2,277 billion rupiah so net cash was down -1,684 to -1,806 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -169 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -1,637 billion rupiah in 12 months time.

Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
-216 ; 11 ; -373 ; 3 ; -49 billion rupiah
0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 25 ; 0 billion rupiah
  • NIKL.jk (raised) -49 billion rupiah in the third quarter -49 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity, will pay 169 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market cap of 1,640 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.50 X assets with a 16 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 169 billion rupiah which means a 10 X valuation. A 9 X valuation gives a -7% lower target price 603 rupiah.
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