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NIKL less dull with less negative cashflow
NIKL Current 810 Target 861 + 6%
21 Jul 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -13%
Last 5 quarters
-7% 19% 31% 8% -13%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-97% -94% -98% -93% -95%
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters million dollars
7.6, -10.6, -2.1, -16.0, -4.5
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-68.0 -94.0 -105.0 -122 -108
Capital raised improved , a 6% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
12.2 -2.7 -1.8 -28.4 -26.4
21 Jul 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -13%
Last 5 quarters
-7% 19% 31% 8% -13%
- Sales declined -13% in the second quarter to 63.5 million dollars -14% below our 73.8 million dollars forecast.
- This brings the average to 11% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 71.3 million dollars in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-97% -94% -98% -93% -95%
- The cash cost ratio went from -93% to -95% profit from 4.6 to 1.1 million dollars in the second quarter
- The average cost ratio is at -95% now.
- We use the average -95% cost ratio to predict a 3.0 million dollars profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters million dollars
7.6, -10.6, -2.1, -16.0, -4.5
- Free cashflow went less negative from -16.0 to -4.5 million dollars in the second quarter with -0.1 million dollars investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -8.3 million dollars now.
- We assume the same -0.1 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives a positive 3.5 million dollars Cashflow in the second quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-68.0 -94.0 -105.0 -122 -108
- Cash increased 39 to 39 million dollars in the second quarter
- Liabilities declined 160 to 147 million dollars so net cash improved -122 to -108 million dollars
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0.0 million dollars equity payout -13.6 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -95 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital raised improved , a 6% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
12.2 -2.7 -1.8 -28.4 -26.4
- NIKL 30 quarter capital raised improved -28.4 to -26.4 million dollars in the second quarter with + 0.2 million dollars from liabilities + 1.7 million dollars from equity & will be -13 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 141 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 0.69 X assets with a 12 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our 12 month cashflow forecast is 14 million dollars which means a 10 X valuation. A 11 X valuation gives a 6% higher target price of 861 rupiah.
