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NIKL back to dull again with more negative cashflow
NIKL Current 915 Target 1,052 +15%
25 Apr 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 8%
Last 5 quarters
21% -7% 19% 31% 8%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-93% -97% -94% -96% -93%
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters million dollars
1.2, 7.6, -10.6, -2.1, -16.0
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-80.0 -68.0 -94.0 -105 -122
Capital raised worsened, a 15% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
8.5, 12.2, -2.7, -1.8, -28.4
25 Apr 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 8%
Last 5 quarters
21% -7% 19% 31% 8%
- Sales grew 8% in the first quarter to 73.1 million dollars -2% below our 74.8 million dollars forecast.
- This brings the average to 13% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 82.1 million dollars in the first quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-93% -97% -94% -96% -93%
- The cash cost ratio went from -96% to -93% profit from 1.1 to 4.6 million dollars in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -95% now.
- We use the average -95% cost ratio to predict a 3.2 million dollars profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters million dollars
1.2, 7.6, -10.6, -2.1, -16.0
- Free cashflow went more negative from -2.1 to -16.0 million dollars in the first quarter even with 0.0 million dollars investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -5.3 million dollars now.
- We assume the same 0.0 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 3.8 million dollars Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-80.0 -68.0 -94.0 -105 -122
- Cash increased 28 to 39 million dollars in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 133 to 160 million dollars so net cash worsened -105 to -122 million dollars.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -2.4 million dollars equity payout -12.1 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -110 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital raised worsened, a 15% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
8.5, 12.2, -2.7, -1.8, -28.4
- NIKL 29 quarter capital raised worsened -1.8 to -28.4 million dollars in the first quarter with 26.0 million dollars liabilities 0.0 million dollars equity & will be -14 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 165 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 0.76 X assets with a 12 years payback & a 1% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 15 million dollars which means an 11 X valuation. A 13 X valuation gives a 15% higher target price of 1,052 rupiah.