Other stocks here
NFLX looking sharper as cashflow back to positive
NFLX Current 338 Target 285 -16%
Apr 20, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 2%
Last 5 quarters
8% 2% 2% 3% 2%
Costs down profit doubled
Last 5 quarters
-86% -98% -101% -105% -89%
Cashflow positive
Last 5 quarters million dollars
692, -175, -106, -1,358, 677
Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-18,835 -19,330 -19,898 -22,708 -21,768
Capital raised improved , a -16% lower target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-15,149 -14,669 -14,587 -14,451 -13,765
Apr 20, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 2%
Last 5 quarters
8% 2% 2% 3% 2%
- Sales grew 2% in the first quarter to 7,868 million dollars -2% below our 8,018 million dollars forecast.
- This brings the average to 2% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% again in this next 12 months to bring sales to 8,517 million dollars in the first quarter 2023.
Costs down profit doubled
Last 5 quarters
-86% -98% -101% -105% -89%
- The cash cost ratio went from -105% to -89% profit doubled from 607 to 1,597 million dollars in the first quarter
- The average cost ratio is at -98% now.
- We use the latest -89% cost ratio to predict a 843 million dollars profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow positive
Last 5 quarters million dollars
692, -175, -106, -1,358, 677
- Free cashflow went positive from -1,358 to 677 million dollars in the first quarter with -246 million dollars investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -240 million dollars now.
- We assume lower -189 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 782 million dollars Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-18,835 -19,330 -19,898 -22,708 -21,768
- Cash declined 6,028 to 6,019 million dollars in the first quarter.
- Liabilities declined 28,735 to 27,787 million dollars so net cash improved -22,708 to -21,768 million dollars.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -977 million dollars equity payout -2038 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -19,730 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital raised improved , a -16% lower target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-15,149 -14,669 -14,587 -14,451 -13,765
- NFLX 29 quarters capital raised improved -14,451 to -13,765 million dollars in the first quarter with -700 million dollars liabilities 14 million dollars equity & will be -10,749 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 150,102 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 3.3 X assets with a 13 years payback & a 1% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 3,016 million dollars which means an 50 X valuation. A 42 X valuation gives a -16% lower target price 285 dollars.