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NFLX a little sharper as cashflow stays positive, but profitability remains low
NFLX Current 191 Target 207 + 8%
Jul 20, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 1%
Last 5 quarters
2% 2% 3% 2% 1%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-98% -101% -105% -89% -97%
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters million dollars
2, -291, -1,329, 651, 67
Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-19,330 -19,898 -22,708 -21,768 -21,456
Capital raised worsened slightly , a 8% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-14,669 -14,587 -14,451 -13,765 -13,776
Jul 20, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 1%
Last 5 quarters
2% 2% 3% 2% 1%
- Sales grew 1% in the second quarter to 7,970 million dollars -1% below our 8,025 million dollars forecast.
- This brings the average to 2% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% again in this next 12 months to bring sales to 8,627 million dollars in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-98% -101% -105% -89% -97%
- The cash cost ratio went from -89% to -97% profit from 1,597 to 1,441 million dollars in the second quarter
- The average cost ratio is at -98% now.
- We use a lower -93% cost ratio to predict a 1,750 million dollars profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters million dollars
2, -291, -1,329, 651, 67
- Free cashflow went from 651 to 67 million dollars in the second quarter with -159 million dollars investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -225 million dollars now.
- We assume the same -159 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives higher 478 million dollars Cashflow in the second quarter 2023.
Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-19,330 -19,898 -22,708 -21,768 -21,456
- Cash declined 6,019 to 5,819 million dollars in the second quarter
- Liabilities declined 27,787 to 27,275 million dollars so net cash improved -21,768 to -21,456 million dollars
- With our forecast cashflow & a -346 million dollars equity payout -1494 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -19,962 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital raised worsened slightly , a 8% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-14,669 -14,587 -14,451 -13,765 -13,776
- NFLX 30 quarter capital raised worsened -13,765 to -13,776 million dollars in the second quarter with 0 million dollars from liabilities -11 million dollars from equity but will be -11,925 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 84,821 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 1.6 X assets with a 22 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 1,840 million dollars which means a 46 X valuation. A 50 X valuation gives a 8% higher target price 207 dollars.
