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Picture
NFLX Margin up

Current 326 Target 308 -6%

1/20/2023
1 minute read


  • Last 12 months sales growth + 2%
  • Last 12 months cash flow -0% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) + 0% of market cap
  • Latest cash minus liabilities -16% of market cap

Sales declined -1%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly ales
3% 2% 1% -1% -1%
7,709 ; 7,868 ; 7,970 ; 7,926 ; 7,852 million dollars
  • Sales declined -1% in the fourth quarter to 7,852 million dollars ; our total forecasts v actual sales are + 1% now.
  • This brings the average to 0% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 8,170 million dollars in the fourth quarter 2023.

Margin up profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
-5% 11% 3% 6% 15%
607 ; 1,597 ; 1,441 ; 1,398 ; 55 million dollars
  • The cash margin went from 6% to 15% profit from 1,398 to 55 million dollars in the fourth quarter with higher non cash costs.
  • The average cash margin is at 9% now.
  • We use a 15% cash margin to predict a 1,673 million dollars profit in the fourth quarter 2023.

Cashflo negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
-403 ; 923 ; 103 ; 557 ; 444 million dollars
-954 ; -246 ; -159 ; -85 ; -1,587 million dollars
  • Free cashflow went from 472 to -1,143 million dollars in the fourth quarter with -1,587 million dollars investment cashflow from investment in short term securities.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at -12 million dollars now.
  • We assume -163 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 1,070 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.

Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
6,028 ; 6,019 ; 5,819 ; 6,114 ; 5,147 million dollars
28,735 ; 27,787 ; 27,275 ; 27,034 ; 27,817 million dollars
  • Cash declined 6,114 to 5,147 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 27,034 to 27,817 million dollars so net cash was down -20,920 to -22,670 million dollars .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -1,328 million dollars equity payout -2,951 million dollars liabilities net cash will be -19,719 million dollars in 12 months time.
​
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
0 ; 700 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 million dollars
136 ; -14 ; -11 ; -4 ; -7 million dollars
  • NFLX (raised) -7 million dollars in the fourth quarter 0 million dollars liabilities -7 million dollars equity, will pay 4,280 million dollars this next 12 months.
  • At the current market cap of 145,223 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 2.85 X assets with a 11 years payback & a 1% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 4,280 million dollars which means a 34 X valuation. A 32 X valuation gives a -6% lower target price 308 rupiah.
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