NFCX cashflow positive
NFCX Current 12,950 Target 8683 -33%
October 7, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -8%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-6% 17% 5% 8% -8%
1,993 2,325 2,440 2,630 2,428
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-89% -90% -97% -98% -99%
151 148 8 30 7
Cashflow positive
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
68 -61 71 -66 61
-7 -62 -74 -37 -5
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
314 223 317 280 307
409 368 540 598 537
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
-391 -422 -520 -586 -557
-5 1 -86 -66 29
1 -32 -12 0 0
October 7, 2022
1 minute read
- NFCX last 12 months sales growth + 22%
- NFCX last 12 months cash flow -2% of market cap
- NFCX last 12 months Capital -2% of market cap
- NFCX latest net cash -3% of market cap
Sales declined -8%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-6% 17% 5% 8% -8%
1,993 2,325 2,440 2,630 2,428
- Sales declined -8% in the second quarter to 2,428 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is 0 now.
- This brings the average to 5% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,856 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-89% -90% -97% -98% -99%
151 148 8 30 7
- The cash cost ratio went from -98% to -99% profit from 30 to 7 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -96% now.
- We use a -98% cost ratio to predict a 54 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow positive
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
68 -61 71 -66 61
-7 -62 -74 -37 -5
- Free cashflow went positive from -103 to 56 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -5 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -43 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -21 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 45 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
314 223 317 280 307
409 368 540 598 537
- Cash increased 280 to 307 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 598 to 537 billion rupiah so net cash was up -318 to -230 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & -62 billion rupiah equity -100 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -112 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
-391 -422 -520 -586 -557
-5 1 -86 -66 29
1 -32 -12 0 0
- NFCX cumulative capital improved -586 to -557 billion rupiah with + 29 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be -396 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 8578 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 4.33 X assets with a 9 years payback & a 1% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 180 billion rupiah (vs -173 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 48 X valuation. A 32 X valuation gives a -33% lower target price 8683 dollars.
