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Picture
NEE Cashflow more negative

Current 77 Target 49 -36%

1/26/2023
1 minute read
  • Last 12 months sales growth + 22%
  • Last 12 months cash flow -7% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) -8% of market cap
  • Latest cash minus liabilities -71% of market cap

Sales declined -8%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly ales
15% -43% 47% 59% -8%
5,046 ; 2,890 ; 4,236 ; 6,719 ; 6,164 million dollars
  • Sales declined -8% in the fourth quarter to 6,164 million dollars ; our total forecasts v actual sales are + 3% now.
  • This brings the average to 14% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 6,842 million dollars in the fourth quarter 2023.

Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
27% 84% 46% 34% 19%
953 ; -693 ; 1,113 ; 1,559 ; 1,267 million dollars
  • The cash margin went from 34% to 19% profit from 1,559 to 1,267 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at 46% now.
  • We use a 44% cash margin to predict a 1,826 million dollars profit in the fourth quarter 2023.

Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
1,317 ; 1,962 ; 2,831 ; 2,474 ; 995 million dollars
-1,746 ; -4,693 ; -4,615 ; -4,541 ; -4,510 million dollars
  • Free cashflow went from -2,067 to -3,515 million dollars in the fourth quarter with -4,510 million dollars investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at -2,524 million dollars now.
  • We assume -1,746 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 907 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.

Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
639 ; 2,061 ; 2,861 ; 2,508 ; 1,601 million dollars
95,243 ; 100,693 ; 107,163 ; 109,663 ; 109,499 million dollars
  • Cash declined 2,508 to 1,601 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
  • Liabilities declined 109,663 to 109,499 million dollars so net cash was down -107,155 to -107,898 million dollars .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -1,802 million dollars equity payout -1,825 million dollars liabilities net cash will be -106,073 million dollars in 12 months time.

Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
-2,116 ; -4,889 ; -4,510 ; -1,224 ; -4,063 million dollars
764 ; 835 ; 869 ; -319 ; 1,072 million dollars
  • NEE (raised) -2,991 million dollars in the fourth quarter -4,063 million dollars liabilities 1,072 million dollars equity, will pay 3,626 million dollars this next 12 months.
  • At the current market cap of 152,197 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 0.94 X assets with a 44 years payback & a 1% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 3,626 million dollars which means a 42 X valuation. A 27 X valuation gives a -36% lower target price 49 dollars.
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