MTEL cashflow lower again
MTEL Current 770 Target 779 + 1%
Aug 5, 2022
1 minute read
Last 12 months cash flow -7% of market cap
Last 12 months Capital -16% of market cap
Latest net cash -7% of market cap
Sales declined -1%
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
1,687 1,821 1,821 1,870 1,856
Costs down profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-43% -29% -29% -42% -39%
358 680 680 459 432
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
999 7 7 2,088 1,136
-260 -3,325 -3,325 -224 -844
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
19,133 18,639 17,022
24,083 23,374 21,568
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-24,233 -31,486 -38,738 -36,380 -34,471
-3,182 -3,182 -3,182 2,358 886
-4,071 -4,071 -4,071 0 1,024
Aug 5, 2022
1 minute read
Last 12 months cash flow -7% of market cap
Last 12 months Capital -16% of market cap
Latest net cash -7% of market cap
Sales declined -1%
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
1,687 1,821 1,821 1,870 1,856
- Sales declined -1% in the second quarter to 1,856 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is -3% now.
- This brings the average to 5% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,004 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs down profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-43% -29% -29% -42% -39%
358 680 680 459 432
- The cash cost ratio went from -42% to -39% profit from 459 to 432 billion rupiah in the second quarter on higher non cash costs.
- The average cost ratio is at -35% now.
- We use the latest -39% cost ratio to predict a 523 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
999 7 7 2,088 1,136
-260 -3,325 -3,325 -224 -844
- Free cashflow went from 1,864 to 292 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -844 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -1,120 billion rupiah now.
- We assume lower -534 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives positive 353 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
19,133 18,639 17,022
24,083 23,374 21,568
- Cash declined 18,639 to 17,022 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 23,374 to 21,568 billion rupiah so net cash was up -4,735 to -4,546 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -1,414 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -1,767 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-24,233 -31,486 -38,738 -36,380 -34,471
-3,182 -3,182 -3,182 2,358 886
-4,071 -4,071 -4,071 0 1,024
- MTEL capital improved -36,380 to -34,471 billion rupiah with + 886 & + 1,024 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be -33,057 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 64,307 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.18 X assets with a 27 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 1,414 billion rupiah which means a 45.5 X valuation. A 46 X valuation gives a 1% higher target price 779 rupiah.
