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Picture
MTEL.jk Cashflow big negative

Current 800 Target 375 -53%

12/31/2022
1 minute read


  • Last 12 months sales growth + 3%
  • Last 12 months cash flow -19% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) -5% of market cap
  • Latest cash minus liabilities -24% of market cap
​
Sales grew 1%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterlysales
8% 0% 3% -1% 1%
1,821 ; 1,821 ; 1,870 ; 1,856 ; 1,880 billion rupiah
  • Sales grew 1% in the third quarter to 1,880 billion rupiah ; our total forecasts v actual sales are -87% now.
  • This brings the average to 1% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,937 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
​
Margin up profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
71% 71% 58% 61% 62%
680 ; 680 ; 459 ; 432 ; 335 billion rupiah
  • The cash margin went from 61% to 62% profit from 432 to 335 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at 63% now.
  • We use a 62% cash margin to predict a 474 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
​
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
7 ; 7 ; 2,088 ; 1,136 ; -2,731 billion rupiah
-3,325 ; -3,325 ; -224 ; -844 ; -9,020 billion rupiah
  • Free cashflow went from 292 to -11,752 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -9,020 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at -3,228 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -534 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 652 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
​
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
0 ; 19,133 ; 18,639 ; 17,022 ; 5,403 billion rupiah
0 ; 24,083 ; 23,374 ; 21,568 ; 21,699 billion rupiah
  • Cash declined 17,022 to 5,403 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 21,568 to 21,699 billion rupiah so net cash was down -4,546 to -16,296 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -2,609 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -13,687 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
-3,182 ; -3,182 ; 2,358 ; 886 ; -756 billion rupiah
-4,071 ; -4,071 ; 0 ; 1,024 ; 624 billion rupiah
  • MTEL.jk (raised) -132 billion rupiah in the third quarter -756 billion rupiah liabilities 624 billion rupiah equity, will pay 2,609 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market cap of 66,822 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.23 X assets with a 19 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 2,609 billion rupiah which means a 26 X valuation. A 12 X valuation gives a -53% lower target price 375 rupiah.
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