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MTEL looking a bit dull with more negative cashflow
MTEL Current 785 Target 609 -22%
March 11 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 3%
Last 3 years
4% 4% 3%
Costs down profit up
Last 3 years
-66% -50% -44%
Cashflow more negative on higher investment
Last 3 years billion rupiah
-1,366 -868 -2,598
Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 3 years billion rupiah
-12,012 -16,606 -4,950
Capital raised worsened
Last 3 years billion rupiah
-6,230 -9,870 -38,881
March 11 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 3%
Last 3 years
4% 4% 3%
- Quarterly sales grew an average 3% in 2021 to 1,717 billion rupiah which is 11% higher than a year ago.
- This brings the average to 3% growth.
- We predict faster average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,028 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 2022.
Costs down profit up
Last 3 years
-66% -50% -44%
- The cash cost ratio went from -50% to -44% average quarterly profit from to 345 billion rupiah in 2021.
- The 2 years average cost ratio is at -47% now.
- We use the latest -44% cost ratio to predict a 519 billion rupiah profit in the fourth quarter 2022.
Cashflow more negative on higher investment
Last 3 years billion rupiah
-1,366 -868 -2,598
- Average quarterly cashflow went from -868 to -2,598 billion rupiah in 2021 with higher -3,149 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -2,598 billion rupiah now.
- We assume lower -2,222 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a better -1,676 billion rupiah Cashflow in the fourth quarter 2022.
Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 3 years billion rupiah
-12,012 -16,606 -4,950
- Cash increased 516 to 19,133 billion rupiah in 2021.
- Liabilities increased 17,122 to 24,083 billion rupiah so net cash improved -16,606 to -4,950 billion rupiah
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout 4,654 billion rupiah new liabilities net cash will be -9,603 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital raised worsened
Last 3 years billion rupiah
-6,230 -9,870 -38,881
- MTEL 16 quarters of capital raised worsened -9,870 to -38,881 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with 5,729 billion rupiah new liabilities 23,282 billion rupiah new equity & will be -41,103 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 65,560 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.02 X assets with a 0% yield.
- Our operating cashflow forecast is 4,235 billion rupiah which means an 15 X valuation. A 12 X valuation gives a -22% lower target price of 609 rupiah.