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MTDL, rather dull with negative cashflow
MTDL Current 650 Target 760 + 17%
Jun 13, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -19%
Last 5 quarters
-3% -2% 18% 42% -19%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-95% -95% -96% -96% -95%
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
264, -256, 181, -116, -730
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-869 -1,106 -1,333 -2,009 -3,144
Capital paid worsened , a 17% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
363, 450, 541, 541, 187
Jun 13, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -19%
Last 5 quarters
-3% -2% 18% 42% -19%
- Sales declined -19% in the first quarter to 5,168 billion rupiah, 34% higher than a year ago.
- This brings the average to 10% growth.
- We predict average growth of 7% a quarter in this next 12 months to bring sales to 6,532 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-95% -95% -96% -96% -95%
- The cash cost ratio went from -96% to -95% profit from 230 to 241 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -96% now.
- We use the average -96% cost ratio to predict a 275 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
264, -256, 181, -116, -730
- Free cashflow went from -116 to -730 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -12 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -230 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -12 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 269 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-869 -1,106 -1,333 -2,009 -3,144
- Cash declined 1,657 to 1,281 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 3,666 to 4,425 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -2,009 to -3,144 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -318 billion rupiah equity payout -719 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -2,425 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid worsened , a 17% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
363, 450, 541, 541, 187
- MTDL 17 quarter capital paid worsened 541 to 187 billion rupiah in the first quarter with 354 billion rupiah new liabilities but will be 1,223 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 7,980 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.93 X assets with a 7 years payback & a 4% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 1,036 billion rupiah which means an 8 X valuation. A 9 X valuation gives a 17% higher target price 760 rupiah.