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Picture
MTDL.jk Cashflow positive

Current 540 Target 725 + 34%

1/18/2023
1 minute read


  • Last 12 months sales growth + 22%
  • Last 12 months cash flow -5% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) + 3% of market cap
  • Latest cash minus liabilities -42% of market cap
​
Sales grew 20%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly ales
18% 42% -19% -12% 20%
4,470 ; 6,366 ; 5,168 ; 4,559 ; 5,454 billion rupiah
  • Sales grew 20% in the third quarter to 5,454 billion rupiah ; our total forecasts v actual sales are +7% now.
  • This brings the average to 8% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 6,331 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.

Margin flat profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
4% 4% 5% 3% 3%
177 ; 230 ; 241 ; 139 ; 165 billion rupiah
  • The cash margin was flat at 3% profit increased from 139 to 165 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at 4% now.
  • We use a 4% cash margin to predict a 228 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.

Cashflow positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
178 ; -118 ; -718 ; -74 ; 620 billion rupiah
3 ; 3 ; -12 ; 1 ; -7 billion rupiah
  • Free cashflow went from -73 to 613 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -7 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at -76 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -4 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 222 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.

Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
1,772 ; 1,657 ; 1,281 ; 1,234 ; 1,268 billion rupiah
3,105 ; 3,666 ; 4,425 ; 3,826 ; 4,021 billion rupiah
  • Cash increased 1,234 to 1,268 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 3,826 to 4,021 billion rupiah so net cash was down -2,592 to -2,753 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -88 billion rupiah equity payout -746 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -1,951 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
0 ; 0 ; -354 ; -26 ; 380 billion rupiah
91 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 200 billion rupiah
  • MTDL.jk paid 580 billion rupiah in the third quarter 380 billion rupiah liabilities 200 billion rupiah equity, will pay 834 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market cap of 6,630 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.80 X assets with a 8 years payback & a 1% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 890 billion rupiah which means a 7 X valuation. A 10 X valuation gives a 34% higher target price 725 rupiah.
SHARPFOKUS DATA
  • Asjmp
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  • ADMF
  • AVIA
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  • BISI
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  • BVIC
  • CMNP
  • CMNT
  • DLTA
  • DRMA
  • DUTI
  • DVLA
  • DYAN
  • EAST
  • FASW
  • GOTO
  • HEXA
  • IKBI
  • INTD
  • IPPE
  • ITMG
  • JIHD
  • KDSI
  • MCOL
  • MEGA
  • MERK
  • MMLP
  • MPMX
  • MTDL
  • MTEL
  • MYOH
  • NFCX
  • NISP
  • OKAS
  • PPRO
  • RIGS
  • SLIS
  • SMDR
  • STAA
  • STTP
  • TCID
  • TGKA
  • VICI
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