MTDL.jk Cashflow positive
Current 540 Target 725 + 34%
1/18/2023
1 minute read
Sales grew 20%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly ales
18% 42% -19% -12% 20%
4,470 ; 6,366 ; 5,168 ; 4,559 ; 5,454 billion rupiah
Margin flat profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
4% 4% 5% 3% 3%
177 ; 230 ; 241 ; 139 ; 165 billion rupiah
Cashflow positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
178 ; -118 ; -718 ; -74 ; 620 billion rupiah
3 ; 3 ; -12 ; 1 ; -7 billion rupiah
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
1,772 ; 1,657 ; 1,281 ; 1,234 ; 1,268 billion rupiah
3,105 ; 3,666 ; 4,425 ; 3,826 ; 4,021 billion rupiah
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
0 ; 0 ; -354 ; -26 ; 380 billion rupiah
91 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 200 billion rupiah
Current 540 Target 725 + 34%
1/18/2023
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 22%
- Last 12 months cash flow -5% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) + 3% of market cap
- Latest cash minus liabilities -42% of market cap
Sales grew 20%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly ales
18% 42% -19% -12% 20%
4,470 ; 6,366 ; 5,168 ; 4,559 ; 5,454 billion rupiah
- Sales grew 20% in the third quarter to 5,454 billion rupiah ; our total forecasts v actual sales are +7% now.
- This brings the average to 8% growth.
- We predict average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 6,331 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Margin flat profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
4% 4% 5% 3% 3%
177 ; 230 ; 241 ; 139 ; 165 billion rupiah
- The cash margin was flat at 3% profit increased from 139 to 165 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cash margin is at 4% now.
- We use a 4% cash margin to predict a 228 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
178 ; -118 ; -718 ; -74 ; 620 billion rupiah
3 ; 3 ; -12 ; 1 ; -7 billion rupiah
- Free cashflow went from -73 to 613 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -7 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -76 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -4 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 222 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
1,772 ; 1,657 ; 1,281 ; 1,234 ; 1,268 billion rupiah
3,105 ; 3,666 ; 4,425 ; 3,826 ; 4,021 billion rupiah
- Cash increased 1,234 to 1,268 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 3,826 to 4,021 billion rupiah so net cash was down -2,592 to -2,753 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -88 billion rupiah equity payout -746 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -1,951 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
0 ; 0 ; -354 ; -26 ; 380 billion rupiah
91 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 200 billion rupiah
- MTDL.jk paid 580 billion rupiah in the third quarter 380 billion rupiah liabilities 200 billion rupiah equity, will pay 834 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market cap of 6,630 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.80 X assets with a 8 years payback & a 1% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 890 billion rupiah which means a 7 X valuation. A 10 X valuation gives a 34% higher target price 725 rupiah.