MSFT sales record high
MSFT Current 282 Target 291 + 3%
Aug 11, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 5%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
11% -2% 14% -5% 5%
46,152 45,317 51,728 49,360 51,865
Costs flat profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-55% -58% -54% -55% -55%
16,458 20,505 18,765 16,728 16,740
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
22,710 24,540 14,480 25,386 24,629
-10,853 -3,250 -1,161 -16,171 -9,729
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
14,224 19,165 20,604 12,498 13,931
191,791 183,440 180,379 181,683 198,298
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
152,731 169,007 180,993 198,180 211,108
0 4,826 0 4,197 0
0 11,450 11,986 12,990 12,928
Aug 11, 2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months cash flow + 3% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 3% of market cap
- Latest net cash -9% of market cap
Sales grew 5%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
11% -2% 14% -5% 5%
46,152 45,317 51,728 49,360 51,865
- Sales grew 5% in the second quarter to 51,865 million dollars ; our forecasts v sales is -0.02% now.
- This brings the average to 3% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 57,292 million dollars in the second quarter 2023.
Costs flat profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-55% -58% -54% -55% -55%
16,458 20,505 18,765 16,728 16,740
- The cash cost ratio Wenas flat at -55% profit increased slightly from 16,728 to 16,740 million dollars in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -55% now.
- We use the average -55% cost ratio to predict a 19,799 million dollars profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
22,710 24,540 14,480 25,386 24,629
-10,853 -3,250 -1,161 -16,171 -9,729
- Free cashflow went from 9,215 to 14,900 million dollars in the second quarter with -9,729 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 14,681 million dollars now.
- We assume -7,578 million dollars investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 16,970 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
14,224 19,165 20,604 12,498 13,931
191,791 183,440 180,379 181,683 198,298
- Cash increased 12,498 to 13,931 million dollars in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 181,683 to 198,298 million dollars so net cash was down -169,185 to -184,367 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -58,046 million dollars equity payout -9,833 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -174,534 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
152,731 169,007 180,993 198,180 211,108
0 4,826 0 4,197 0
0 11,450 11,986 12,990 12,928
- MSFT cumulative capital improved 198,180 to 211,108 million dollars with 0 & + 12,928 million dollars from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be 278,986 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 2,105,362 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 6 X assets with a 5 years payback & a 3% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 67,878 million dollars which means a 31 X valuation. A 32 X valuation gives a 3% higher target price 291 dollars.
