MSFT Sales grew 5%
Current 243 Target 249 + 3%
1/25/2023
1 minute read
Sales grew 5%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly ales
14% -5% 5% -3% 5%
51,728 ; 49,360 ; 51,865 ; 50,122 ; 52,747 million dollars
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
46% 45% 45% 43% 41%
18,765 ; 16,728 ; 16,740 ; 17,556 ; 16,425 million dollars
Cashflow less positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
14,480 ; 25,386 ; 24,629 ; 23,198 ; 11,173 million dollars
-1,161 ; -16,171 ; -9,729 ; -3,132 ; -7,150 million dollars
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
20,604 ; 12,498 ; 13,931 ; 22,884 ; 15,646 million dollars
180,379 ; 181,683 ; 198,298 ; 186,218 ; 181,416 million dollars
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
0 ; 4,197 ; 0 ; 1,000 ; 750 million dollars
11,986 ; 12,990 ; 12,928 ; 9,883 ; 10,599 million dollars
Current 243 Target 249 + 3%
1/25/2023
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 2%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 3% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) + 3% of market cap
- Latest cash minus liabilities -9% of market cap
Sales grew 5%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly ales
14% -5% 5% -3% 5%
51,728 ; 49,360 ; 51,865 ; 50,122 ; 52,747 million dollars
- Sales grew 5% in the fourth quarter to 52,747 million dollars ; our total forecasts v actual sales are -100% now.
- This brings the average to 1% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 56,453 million dollars in the fourth quarter 2023.
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
46% 45% 45% 43% 41%
18,765 ; 16,728 ; 16,740 ; 17,556 ; 16,425 million dollars
- The cash margin went from 43% to 41% profit from 17,556 to 16,425 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
- The average cash margin is at 43% now.
- We use a 43% cash margin to predict a 19,228 million dollars profit in the fourth quarter 2023.
Cashflow less positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
14,480 ; 25,386 ; 24,629 ; 23,198 ; 11,173 million dollars
-1,161 ; -16,171 ; -9,729 ; -3,132 ; -7,150 million dollars
- Free cashflow went from 20,066 to 4,023 million dollars in the fourth quarter with -7,150 million dollars investment cashflow & large negative working capital.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 12,051 million dollars now.
- We assume -9,046 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 14,530 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
20,604 ; 12,498 ; 13,931 ; 22,884 ; 15,646 million dollars
180,379 ; 181,683 ; 198,298 ; 186,218 ; 181,416 million dollars
- Cash declined 22,884 to 15,646 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
- Liabilities declined 186,218 to 181,416 million dollars so net cash was down -163,334 to -165,770 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -36,717 million dollars equity payout -21,401 million dollars liabilities net cash will be -144,369 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
0 ; 4,197 ; 0 ; 1,000 ; 750 million dollars
11,986 ; 12,990 ; 12,928 ; 9,883 ; 10,599 million dollars
- MSFT paid 11,349 million dollars in the fourth quarter 750 million dollars liabilities 10,599 million dollars equity, will pay 58,118 million dollars this next 12 months.
- At the current market cap of 1,808,305 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 4.76 X assets with a 6 years payback & a 2% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 58,118 million dollars which means a 31 X valuation. A 32 X valuation gives a 3% higher target price 249 rupiah.