MRNA an 8% yield
MRNA Current 161 Target 144 -10%
Aug 4, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -22%
Last 5 quarters
4,354 4,969 7,211 6,066 4,749
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-6% -53% -35% -40% -55%
Cashflow less negative , last 12 months -0.1% of market cap
Last 5 quarters million dollars
125 -85 2,128 -1,189 -894
Net cash up to -8% of market cap
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-3,846 -5,249 -3,676 -5,486 -5,185
Capital improved, last 12 months + 4% of market cap
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-2,154 -2,186 -1,357 -746 535
Aug 4, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -22%
Last 5 quarters
4,354 4,969 7,211 6,066 4,749
- Sales declined -22% in the second quarter to 4,749 million dollars -13% below our 5,459 million dollars forecast.
- This brings the average growth to 42% growth.
- We predict average growth of -10% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 3,980 million dollars in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-6% -53% -35% -40% -55%
- The cash cost ratio went from -40% to -55% profit from 3,657 to 2,197 million dollars in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -46% now.
- We use the latest -55% cost ratio to predict a 1,770 million dollars profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow less negative , last 12 months -0.1% of market cap
Last 5 quarters million dollars
125 -85 2,128 -1,189 -894
- Free cashflow went from -1,189 to -894 million dollars in the second quarter with -1,152 million dollars investment cashflow (mostly buying short term securities).
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -10 million dollars now.
- We assume the same -1,152 million dollars investment spending which with lower sales gives a positive 896 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up to -8% of market cap
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-3,846 -5,249 -3,676 -5,486 -5,185
- Cash declined 5,048 to 2,873 million dollars in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 10,534 to 8,058 million dollars so net cash was up -5,486 to -5,185 million dollars
- With our forecast cashflow & a -4,872 million dollars equity payout 1,287 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -6,288 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital improved, last 12 months + 4% of market cap
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-2,154 -2,186 -1,357 -746 535
- MRNA 14 quarter cumulative capital improved improved -746 to 535 million dollars in the second quarter with 0 million dollars from liabilities + 1,281 million dollars from equity & will be 4,121 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 63,964 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 2.09 X assets with a 6 years payback & an 8% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 3,585 million dollars which means an 18 X valuation. A 16 X valuation gives a -10% lower target price 144 dollars.
