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MRNA an 8% yield

MRNA Current 161 Target 144 -10%

Aug 4, 2022
1 minute read

Sales declined -22%
Last 5 quarters
4,354 4,969 7,211 6,066 4,749
  • Sales declined -22% in the second quarter to 4,749 million dollars -13% below our 5,459 million dollars forecast.
  • This brings the average growth to 42% growth.
  • We predict average growth of -10% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 3,980 million dollars in the second quarter 2023.
​
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-6% -53% -35% -40% -55%
  • The cash cost ratio went from -40% to -55% profit from 3,657 to 2,197 million dollars in the second quarter.
  • The average cost ratio is at -46% now.
  • We use the latest -55% cost ratio to predict a 1,770 million dollars profit in the second quarter 2023.
​
Cashflow less negative , last 12 months -0.1% of market cap
Last 5 quarters million dollars
125 -85 2,128 -1,189 -894
  • Free cashflow went from -1,189 to -894 million dollars in the second quarter with -1,152 million dollars investment cashflow (mostly buying short term securities).
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at -10 million dollars now.
  • We assume the same -1,152 million dollars investment spending which with lower sales gives a positive 896 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.

Net cash up to -8% of market cap
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-3,846 -5,249 -3,676 -5,486 -5,185
  • Cash declined 5,048 to 2,873 million dollars in the second quarter.
  • Liabilities declined 10,534 to 8,058 million dollars so net cash was up -5,486 to -5,185 million dollars
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -4,872 million dollars equity payout 1,287 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -6,288 million dollars in 12 months time.
​
Capital improved, last 12 months + 4% of market cap
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-2,154 -2,186 -1,357 -746 535
  • MRNA 14 quarter cumulative capital improved improved -746 to 535 million dollars in the second quarter with 0 million dollars from liabilities + 1,281 million dollars from equity & will be 4,121 million dollars in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 63,964 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 2.09 X assets with a 6 years payback & an 8% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 3,585 million dollars which means an 18 X valuation. A 16 X valuation gives a -10% lower target price 144 dollars.
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