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MRNA sales & cashflow jump, but expecting lower ahead
MRNA Current 136 Target 111 -18%
March 7 2022
1 minute read
Sales were ‘boosted’ 45%, but expected to decline now
Last 5 quarters
261% 239% 125% 14% 45%
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters
139% 53% -5% -30% -57%
Cashflow higher, but expected lower
Last 5 quarters million dollars
1,073, 2,789, 125, -85, 2,128
Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 5 quarters million dollars
472 -3,414 -3,846 -5,249 -3,676
Capital raised improved & will turn positive, but a -18% lower target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-2,090 -2,118 -2,154 -2,186 -1,357
March 7 2022
1 minute read
Sales were ‘boosted’ 45%, but expected to decline now
Last 5 quarters
261% 239% 125% 14% 45%
- Sales were ‘boosted’ 45% in the fourth quarter to 7,211 million dollars far above our 4,721 million dollars forecast.
- This brings the average growth to 106% growth!
- We predict a decline now & average growth of -10% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 4,731 million dollars in the fourth quarter 2022.
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters
139% 53% -5% -30% -57%
- The cash cost ratio went from -30% to -57% but with higher sales profit doubled from 2,112 to 4,868 million dollars in the fourth quarter
- The average cost ratio is at -9% now.
- We use the latest -57% cost ratio to predict a lower 2,024 million dollars profit in the fourth quarter 2022.
Cashflow higher, but expected lower
Last 5 quarters million dollars
1,073, 2,789, 125, -85, 2,128
- Free cashflow went from -85 to 2,128 million dollars in the fourth quarter with lower -1,138 million dollars investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 1,239 million dollars now.
- We assume the same -1,138 million dollars investment spending which with lower sales gives a lower 870 million dollars Cashflow in the fourth quarter 2022.
Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 5 quarters million dollars
472 -3,414 -3,846 -5,249 -3,676
- Cash increased 5,550 to 6,848 million dollars in the fourth quarter
- Liabilities declined 10,799 to 10,524 million dollars so net cash improved -5,249 to -3,676 million dollars.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -2,871 million dollars equity payout -1,798 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -1,420 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital raised improved & will turn positive, but a -18% lower target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-2,090 -2,118 -2,154 -2,186 -1,357
- MRNA 12 quarter capital raised improved -2,186 to -1,357 million dollars in the fourth quarter with a -829 million dollars equity payout & will turn positive 3,312 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 60,720 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 2.05 X assets with a 4 years payback & a 5% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 4,950 million dollars which means an 12 X valuation. A 10 X valuation gives a -18% lower target price of 111 dollars.