MRAT cashflow more negative
MRAT Current 372 Target 128 -66%
Sep 19, 2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped 22%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-1% -9% -11% 6% 22%
88 80 71 75 92
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-98% -101% -98% -98% -107%
0.4 -2.0 0.1 0.3 -9.5
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
-5 -2 15 -11 -21
0 -3 -4 -7 -0
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
6 5 9 13 5
222 226 235 260 260
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
-68 -70 -71 -94 -107
-3 -3 1 -23 -13
0 0 0 0 0
Sep 19, 2022
1 minute read
- MRAT last 12 months sales growth + 5%
- MRAT last 12 months cash flow -21% of market cap
- MRAT last 12 months Capital -25% of market cap
- MRAT latest net cash -160% of market cap
Sales jumped 22%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-1% -9% -11% 6% 22%
88 80 71 75 92
- Sales jumped 22% in the second quarter to 92 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 2% now.
- This brings the average to 2% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 97 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-98% -101% -98% -98% -107%
0.4 -2.0 0.1 0.3 -9.5
- The cash cost ratio went from -98% to -107% profit from 0.3 to -9.5 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -101% now.
- We use a -99% cost ratio to predict a -1.4 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
-5 -2 15 -11 -21
0 -3 -4 -7 -0
- Free cashflow went from -19 to -21 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -0 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -8 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -0.2 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 1.1 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
6 5 9 13 5
222 226 235 260 260
- Cash declined 13 to 5 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 260 to 260 billion rupiah so net cash was down -247 to -255 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -5 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -250 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
-68 -70 -71 -94 -107
-3 -3 1 -23 -13
0 0 0 0 0
- MRAT cumulative capital worsened -94 to -107 billion rupiah with -13 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be -102 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 159 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.27 X assets with a 129 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 4.6 billion rupiah (vs -33 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 35 X valuation. A 12 X valuation gives a -66% lower target price 128 rupiah.
