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Picture

MRAT cashflow less negative

MRAT.jk Current 775 Target 382 -51%

12/10/2022
1 minute read

  • Last 12 months sales growth -36%
  • Last 12 months cash flow -10% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital -13% of market cap
  • Latest net cash -79% of market cap
​
Sales declined -44%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-9% -11% 6% 22% -44%
80 ; 71 ; 75 ; 92 ; 51
  • Sales declined -44% in the third quarter to 51 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is 1% now.
  • This brings the average to -7% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 63 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
​
Margin down profit less negative
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
-1% 2% 2% -7% -11%
-2 ; 0 ; 0 ; -10 ; -9
  • The cash margin went from -7% to -11% profit from -10 to -9 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at -4% now.
  • We use a 1% cash margin to predict a -2 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
​
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
-2 ; 15 ; -11 ; -21 ; -4
-3 ; -4 ; -7 ; -0 ; -0
  • Free cashflow went from -21 to -4 billion rupiah in the third quarter with 0 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at -8 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume 0 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 1 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
​
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
5 ; 9 ; 13 ; 5 ; 8
226 ; 235 ; 260 ; 260 ; 275
  • Cash increased 5 to 8 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 260 to 275 billion rupiah so net cash was down -255 to -267 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -3 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -264 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-3 ; 1 ; -23 ; -13 ; -6
0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0
  • MRAT.jk (raised) -6 billion rupiah in the third quarter -6 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity, will pay 3 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market value of 336 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.57 X assets with a 176 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 3 billion rupiah which means a 101 X valuation. A 50 X valuation gives a -51% lower target price 382 rupiah.
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