MPPA cashflow turns positive
MPPA Current 226 Target 238 + 5%
Aug 10, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 20%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
29% -31% 24% -2% 20%
2,000 1,389 1,720 1,689 2,029
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-94% -97% -102% -99% -97%
-8 -81 -165 -109 -49
Cashflow turns positive
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
188 7 -164 -287 67
-1 -34 17 -17 -6
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
161 133 753 348 205
3,916 4,040 4,066 4,264 3,513
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-767 -767 -1,533 -1,433 -1,229
250 -0 -50 100 205
0 0 -716 0 0
Aug 10, 2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months cash flow -22% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital -24% of market cap
- Latest net cash -173% of market cap
Sales grew 20%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
29% -31% 24% -2% 20%
2,000 1,389 1,720 1,689 2,029
- Sales grew 20% in the second quarter to 2,029 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 1% now.
- This brings the average to 3% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,189 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-94% -97% -102% -99% -97%
-8 -81 -165 -109 -49
- The cash cost ratio went from -99% to -97% profit from -109 to -49 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -98% now.
- We use the latest -97% cost ratio to predict a -44 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow turns positive
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
188 7 -164 -287 67
-1 -34 17 -17 -6
- Free cashflow went from -305 to 61 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -6 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -104 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -6 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 68 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
161 133 753 348 205
3,916 4,040 4,066 4,264 3,513
- Cash declined 348 to 205 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 4,264 to 3,513 billion rupiah so net cash was up -3,916 to -3,308 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -230 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -3,078 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-767 -767 -1,533 -1,433 -1,229
250 -0 -50 100 205
0 0 -716 0 0
- MPPA cumulative capital improved -1,433 to -1,229 billion rupiah with + 205 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be -998 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 1,916 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.55 X assets with a 65 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 58 billion rupiah which means a 33 X valuation. A 35 X valuation gives a 5% higher target price 238 rupiah.
