MPPA.jk Cashflow less positive
Current 130 Target 137 + 6%
12/30/2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -20%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterlysales
-31% 24% -2% 20% -20%
1,389 ; 1,720 ; 1,689 ; 2,029 ; 1,616 billion rupiah
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
3% -2% 1% 3% -1%
-81 ; -165 ; -109 ; -49 ; -131 billion rupiah
Cashflow less positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
7 ; -164 ; -287 ; 67 ; 52 billion rupiah
-34 ; 17 ; -17 ; -6 ; -25 billion rupiah
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
133 ; 753 ; 348 ; 205 ; 240 billion rupiah
4,040 ; 4,066 ; 4,264 ; 3,513 ; 3,514 billion rupiah
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
-0 ; -50 ; 100 ; 205 ; -5 billion rupiah
0 ; -716 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 billion rupiah
Current 130 Target 137 + 6%
12/30/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 16%
- Last 12 months cash flow -33% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) -42% of market cap
- Latest cash minus liabilities -297% of market cap
Sales declined seasonally -20%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterlysales
-31% 24% -2% 20% -20%
1,389 ; 1,720 ; 1,689 ; 2,029 ; 1,616 billion rupiah
- Sales declined seasonally -20% in the third quarter to 1,616 billion rupiah ; our total forecasts v actual sales are + 4% now.
- This brings the average to 5% growth.
- We predict average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,966 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
3% -2% 1% 3% -1%
-81 ; -165 ; -109 ; -49 ; -131 billion rupiah
- The cash margin went from 3% to -1% profit from -49 to -131 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cash margin is at 0% now.
- We use a 2% cash margin to predict a -93 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow less positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
7 ; -164 ; -287 ; 67 ; 52 billion rupiah
-34 ; 17 ; -17 ; -6 ; -25 billion rupiah
- Free cashflow went from 61 to 26 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -25 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -91 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -8 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 22 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
133 ; 753 ; 348 ; 205 ; 240 billion rupiah
4,040 ; 4,066 ; 4,264 ; 3,513 ; 3,514 billion rupiah
- Cash increased 205 to 240 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 3,513 to 3,514 billion rupiah so net cash was up -3,308 to -3,274 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -89 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -3,185 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
-0 ; -50 ; 100 ; 205 ; -5 billion rupiah
0 ; -716 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 billion rupiah
- MPPA.jk (raised) -5 billion rupiah in the third quarter -5 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity, will pay 89 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market cap of 1,102 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.33 X assets with a 35 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 89 billion rupiah which means a 12 X valuation. A 13 X valuation gives a 6% higher target price 137 rupiah.