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MPPA still dull with more negative cashflow
MPPA Current 242 Target 214 -11%
May 13, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -2%
Last 5 quarters
-5% 29% -31% 24% -2%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-97% -94% -97% -102% -99%
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-116, 187, -27, -147, -305
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-4,365 -3,755 -3,907 -3,313 -3,916
Capital raised improved , a -11% lower target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,051 -801 -801 -1,567 -1,467
May 13, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -2%
Last 5 quarters
-5% 29% -31% 24% -2%
- Sales declined -2% in the first quarter to 1,689 billion rupiah -3% below our 1,737 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 5% growth.
- We predict average growth of 8% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,198 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-97% -94% -97% -102% -99%
- The cash cost ratio went from -102% to -99% profit from -165 to -109 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -98% now.
- We use a lower -96% cost ratio to predict a -40 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-116, 187, -27, -147, -305
- Free cashflow went from -147 to -305 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -17 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -73 billion rupiah now.
- We assume lower -9 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 30 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-4,365 -3,755 -3,907 -3,313 -3,916
- Cash declined 753 to 348 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 4,066 to 4,264 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -3,313 to -3,916 billion rupiah
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -320 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -3,596 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital raised improved , a -11% lower target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,051 -801 -801 -1,567 -1,467
- MPPA 25 quarter capital raised improved -1,567 to -1,467 billion rupiah in the first quarter with a -100 billion rupiah liabilities payment & will be -1,147 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 2,052 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.48 X assets with a 36 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 121 billion rupiah which means an 17 X valuation. A 15 X valuation gives a -11% lower target price 214 rupiah.