MPMX sales up +21%
Current 1,165 Target 1,732 + 49%
Mar 27, 2023
1 minute read
A quick glance
Sales grew 21%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly sales
7% -7% -36% 73% 21%
3,342 ; 3,116 ; 1,995 ; 3,453 ; 4,179 billion rupiah
Margin flat profit up
Last 5 quarters cash profit margin, net profit
6% 7% 11% 5% 5%
89 ; 146 ; 161 ; 151 ; 205 billion rupiah
Cashflow small positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
46 ; 308 ; -84 ; 547 ; 28 billion rupiah
-63 ; 7 ; 177 ; -71 ; -24 billion rupiah
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
1,848 ; 2,197 ; 1,514 ; 1,988 ; 1,999 billion rupiah
3,611 ; 3,837 ; 2,138 ; 2,937 ; 2,703 billion rupiah
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
-90 ; -30 ; 25 ; -1 ; -54 billion rupiah
0 ; -6 ; 746 ; 0 ; 44 billion rupiah
Mar 27, 2023
1 minute read
A quick glance
- Last 12 months sales growth + 25% vs 2019 -23%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 18% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) + 14% of market cap
- Latest cash minus liabilities -14% of market cap
- Latest market value to assets 0.56 X. Last 12 months cashflow to assets 10%
Sales grew 21%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly sales
7% -7% -36% 73% 21%
3,342 ; 3,116 ; 1,995 ; 3,453 ; 4,179 billion rupiah
- Sales grew 21% in the fourth quarter to 4,179 billion rupiah .
- This brings the quarterly average to 13% growth.
- We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 4,245 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 2023.
Margin flat profit up
Last 5 quarters cash profit margin, net profit
6% 7% 11% 5% 5%
89 ; 146 ; 161 ; 151 ; 205 billion rupiah
- The cash profit margin was flat at 5%, net profit increased from 151 to 205 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- The average margin is at 7% now.
- We use a 7% cash profit margin to predict a 261 billion rupiah net profit in the fourth quarter 2023.
Cashflow small positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
46 ; 308 ; -84 ; 547 ; 28 billion rupiah
-63 ; 7 ; 177 ; -71 ; -24 billion rupiah
- Free cashflow went from 476 to 4 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with -24 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 222 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -24 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 269 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
1,848 ; 2,197 ; 1,514 ; 1,988 ; 1,999 billion rupiah
3,611 ; 3,837 ; 2,138 ; 2,937 ; 2,703 billion rupiah
- Cash increased 1,988 to 1,999 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- Liabilities declined 2,937 to 2,703 billion rupiah so net cash was up -949 to -704 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -294 billion rupiah equity payout -501 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be 79 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
-90 ; -30 ; 25 ; -1 ; -54 billion rupiah
0 ; -6 ; 746 ; 0 ; 44 billion rupiah
- MPMX.JK (raised) -10 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter, -54 billion rupiah liabilities 44 billion rupiah equity, will pay 796 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market cap of 5,072 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.56 X assets with a 10% cashflow to assets 6% dividend yield forecast.
- Our cashflow forecast is 1,077 billion rupiah which means a 5 X valuation. A 7 X valuation gives a 49% higher target price 1,732 rupiah.