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MNCN looking sharp as capital paid jumps
MNCN Current 1,065 Target 2,567 + 141%
Apr 22, 2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped 15%
Last 5 quarters
-0% 7% 27% -19% 15%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-72% -71% -62% -69% -63%
Cashflow lower, but average rising
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-75, 281, 639, 747, 384
Balance sheet higher leverage
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-3,623 -3,360 -2,789 -2,297 -2,564
Capital paid improved , a 141% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
4,278, 4,651, 5,087, 5,381, 5,973
Apr 22, 2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped 15%
Last 5 quarters
-0% 7% 27% -19% 15%
- Sales jumped 15% in the fourth quarter to 2,549 billion rupiah 10% above our 2,320 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 8% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,996 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 2022.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-72% -71% -62% -69% -63%
- The cash cost ratio went from -69% to -63% profit from 546 to 766 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter
- The average cost ratio is at -66% now.
- We use the average -68% cost ratio to predict a 790 billion rupiah profit in the fourth quarter 2022.
Cashflow lower, but average rising
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-75, 281, 639, 747, 384
- Free cashflow went from 747 to 384 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with -90 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 513 billion rupiah now.
- We assume lower -152 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 796 billion rupiah Cashflow in the fourth quarter 2022.
Balance sheet higher leverage
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-3,623 -3,360 -2,789 -2,297 -2,564
- Cash increased 1,080 to 1,286 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter
- Liabilities increased 3,377 to 3,850 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -2,297 to -2,564 billion rupiah
- With our forecast cashflow & a -1,407 billion rupiah equity payout -714 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -1,131 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved , a 141% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
4,278, 4,651, 5,087, 5,381, 5,973
- MNCN 28 quarter capital paid improved 5,381 to 5,973 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with a -591 billion rupiah liabilities payment & will be 8,083 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 14,087 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.64 X assets with a 7 years payback & a 10% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 2,830 billion rupiah which means an 5 X valuation. A 12 X valuation gives a 141% higher target price 2,567 rupiah.
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