MNCN 10% yield forecast
MNCN Current 895 Target 1,809 + 102%
Sep 2, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 2%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
27% -19% 15% 2% 2%
2,723 2,210 2,549 2,605 2,669
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-63% -69% -63% -64% -67%
843 546 766 697 646
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
869 956 479 658 725
-232 -187 -90 -191 -371
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
870 1,080 1,286 1,409 910
3,659 3,377 3,850 3,490 3,190
Cash declined 1,409 to 910 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
2,964 3,258 3,849 4,192 4,554
434 174 591 344 361
2 120 0 0 0
Sep 2, 2022
1 minute read
- MNCN last 12 months sales growth below average -2%
- MNCN last 12 months cash flow 4X average + 17% of market cap
- MNCN last 12 months Capital 13X average + 13% of market cap
- MNCN latest net cash -19% of market cap
Sales grew 2%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
27% -19% 15% 2% 2%
2,723 2,210 2,549 2,605 2,669
- Sales grew 2% in the second quarter to 2,669 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 1% now.
- This brings the average to 0% growth.
- We predict average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 3,129 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-63% -69% -63% -64% -67%
843 546 766 697 646
- The cash cost ratio went from -64% to -67% profit from 697 to 646 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -65% now.
- We use the average -65% cost ratio to predict a 840 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
869 956 479 658 725
-232 -187 -90 -191 -371
- Free cashflow went from 466 to 354 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -371 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 495 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -281 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 665 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
870 1,080 1,286 1,409 910
3,659 3,377 3,850 3,490 3,190
Cash declined 1,409 to 910 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 3,490 to 3,190 billion rupiah so net cash was down -2,081 to -2,280 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -1,129 billion rupiah equity payout -592 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -751 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
2,964 3,258 3,849 4,192 4,554
434 174 591 344 361
2 120 0 0 0
- MNCN cumulative capital improved 4,192 to 4,554 billion rupiah with + 361 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be 6,274 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 11,838 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.51 X assets with an 8 years payback & a 10% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 2,658 billion rupiah (vs 1,955 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 4 X valuation. A 9 X valuation gives a 102% higher target price 1,809 rupiah.
