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Picture

MNCN 14% yield forecast

MNCN.jk Current 815 Target 1,620 + 99%

12/5/2022
1 minute read

  • Last 12 months sales growth -7%
  • Last 12 months cash flow + 18% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital + 18% of market cap
  • Latest net cash -10% of market cap

Sales declined -23%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-19% 15% 2% 2% -23%
2,210 2,549 2,605 2,669 2,061
  • Sales declined -23% in the third quarter to 2,061 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 1% now.
  • This brings the average to -1% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,392 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.

Margin up profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
31% 37% 36% 33% 38%
546 766 697 646 548
  • The cash margin went from 33% to 38% profit from 646 to 548 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at 36% now.
  • We use a 37% cash margin to predict a 650 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.

Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
956 479 658 725 1,001
-187 -90 -191 -371 -269
  • Free cashflow went from 354 to 732 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -269 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 485 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -206 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 670 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.

Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
1,080 1,286 1,409 1,401 1,452
3,377 3,850 3,490 3,190 2,527
  • Cash increased 1,401 to 1,452 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities declined 3,190 to 2,527 billion rupiah so net cash was up -1,789 to -1,075 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -1,525 billion rupiah equity payout -469 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be 78 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
174 591 344 361 681
120 0 0 0 0
  • MNCN.jk paid 681 billion rupiah in the third quarter 681 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity, will pay 1,994 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market value of 10,780 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.48 X assets with a 8 years payback & a 14% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 2,678 billion rupiah which means a 4 X valuation. A 8 X valuation gives a 99% higher target price 1,620 rupiah.
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