MMLP average Cashflow positive
MMLP Current 460 Target 431 -6%
Sep 21, 2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped 26%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
11% -3% 6% -13% 26%
81 79 84 73 92
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-116% -114% 94% -42% -61%
47 49 223 46 43
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
29 25 47 39 78
-513 -35 -75 -13 10
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
761 890 770 782 1,166
892 1,000 950 928 1,215
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
-821 -959 -868 -854 -1,151
11 -138 26 14 -301
-93 0 65 0 5
Sep 21, 2022
1 minute read
- MMLP last 12 months sales growth + 14%
- MMLP last 12 months cash flow + 2% of market cap
- MMLP last 12 months Capital -10% of market cap
- MMLP latest net cash -2% of market cap
Sales jumped 26%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
11% -3% 6% -13% 26%
81 79 84 73 92
- Sales jumped 26% in the second quarter to 92 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -20% now.
- This brings the average to 4% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% again in this next 12 months to bring sales to 105 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-116% -114% 94% -42% -61%
47 49 223 46 43
- The cash cost ratio went from -42% to -61% profit from 46 to 43 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -31% now.
- We use the latest -61% cost ratio to predict a 31 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
29 25 47 39 78
-513 -35 -75 -13 10
- Free cashflow went from 25 to 88 billion rupiah in the second quarter with positive 10 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 19 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -2 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 19 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
761 890 770 782 1,166
892 1,000 950 928 1,215
- Cash increased 782 to 1,166 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 928 to 1,215 billion rupiah so net cash was up -146 to -49 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -74 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be 25 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
-821 -959 -868 -854 -1,151
11 -138 26 14 -301
-93 0 65 0 5
- MMLP cumulative capital worsened -854 to -1,151 billion rupiah with -301 & + 5 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be -1,077 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 3,169 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.4 X assets with a 85 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 74 billion rupiah (vs 76 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 43 X valuation. A 40 X valuation gives a -6% lower target price 431 rupiah.