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MLPT looking pretty sharp as sales rise to a record
MLPT Current 3,500 Target 4,262 +22%
Mar 29, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew seasonally 42%
Last 5 quarters
25% -35% 16% 15% 42%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-90% -88% -86% -82% -89%
Cashflow seasonally higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
383 -46 74 3 337
Balance sheet higher leverage
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-906 -936 -1,142 -1,195 -1,330
Capital paid improved, a 22% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
293 309 534 559 565
Mar 29, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew seasonally 42%
Last 5 quarters
25% -35% 16% 15% 42%
- Sales grew seasonally 42% in the fourth quarter to a record 1,053 billion rupiah 13% above our 929 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 10% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,145 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 2022.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-90% -88% -86% -82% -89%
- The cash cost ratio went from -82% to -89% profit from 96 to 83 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -86% now.
- We use the average -86% cost ratio to predict a 121 billion rupiah profit in the fourth quarter 2022.
Cashflow seasonally higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
383 -46 74 3 337
- Free cashflow went from 3 to 337 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with -42 billion rupiah investment spending & seasonally positive working capital.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 92 billion rupiah now.
- We assume lower -30 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 122 billion rupiah Cashflow in the fourth quarter 2022.
Balance sheet higher leverage
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-906 -936 -1,142 -1,195 -1,330
- Cash increased 379 to 704 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- Liabilities increased 1,574 to 2,034 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -1,195 to -1,330 billion rupiah
- With our forecast cashflow & a -113 billion rupiah equity payout -296 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -1,034 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved, a 22% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
293 309 534 559 565
- MLPT 20 quarters capital paid improved 559 to 565 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with -6 billion rupiah liabilities -11 billion rupiah equity payments & will be 946 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 6,563 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 2.22 X assets with a 6 years payback & a 2% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 381 billion rupiah which means an 17 X valuation. A 21 X valuation gives a 22% higher target price of 4,262 rupiah.