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MLPT less sharp with negative cashflow
MLPT Current 3,110 Target 4,115 + 32%
Jun 6, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -13%
Last 5 quarters
-35% 16% 15% 42% -13%
Costs down profit down
Last 5 quarters
-88% -86% -82% -89% -88%
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-46, 74, 3, 337, -320
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-936 -1,142 -1,195 -1,330 -1,689
Capital paid improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
309, 534, 559, 565, 740
Jun 6, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -13%
Last 5 quarters
-35% 16% 15% 42% -13%
- Sales declined seasonally -13% in the first quarter to 911 billion rupiah 8% above our 842 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 15% growth.
- We predict average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,053 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs down profit down
Last 5 quarters
-88% -86% -82% -89% -88%
- The cash cost ratio went from -89% to -88% profit from 83 to 68 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -86% now.
- We use the average -86% cost ratio to predict a 107 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-46, 74, 3, 337, -320
- Free cashflow went negative from 337 to -320 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -30 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 24 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -30 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 112 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-936 -1,142 -1,195 -1,330 -1,689
- Cash declined 704 to 206 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities declined 2,034 to 1,895 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -1,330 to -1,689 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -131 billion rupiah equity payout -340 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -1,349 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
309, 534, 559, 565, 740
- MLPT 21 quarter capital paid improved 565 to 740 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -6 billion rupiah liabilities -169 billion rupiah equity payouts & will be 1,193 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 5,831 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 2.15 X assets with a 6 years payback & a 2% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 454 billion rupiah which means a 13 X valuation. A 17 X valuation gives a 32% higher target price of 4,115 rupiah.