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Picture
MLPT.jk Cashflow more positive

Current 2,030 Target 2,460 + 21%

12/31/2022
1 minute read

  • Last 12 months sales growth + 15%
  • Last 12 months cash flow + 13% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) + 15% of market cap
  • Latest cash minus liabilities -37% of market cap

Sales grew 12%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly sales
15% 42% -13% -17% 12%
743 ; 1,053 ; 911 ; 759 ; 853 billion rupiah
  • Sales grew 12% in the third quarter to 853 billion rupiah ; our total forecasts v actual sales are -1% now.
  • This brings the average to 6% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 936 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
​
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
18% 11% 12% 34% 11%
96 ; 83 ; 68 ; 225 ; 61 billion rupiah
  • The cash margin went from 34% to 11% profit from 225 to 61 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at 17% now.
  • We use a 11% cash margin to predict a 69 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
​
Cashflow more positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
13 ; 372 ; -293 ; -83 ; 394 billion rupiah
-16 ; -42 ; -30 ; 314 ; -125 billion rupiah
  • Free cashflow went from 231 to 269 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -125 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 127 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -8 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 96 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
​
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
379 ; 704 ; 206 ; 347 ; 320 billion rupiah
1,574 ; 2,034 ; 1,895 ; 1,815 ; 1,726 billion rupiah
  • Cash declined 347 to 320 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities declined 1,815 to 1,726 billion rupiah so net cash was up -1,468 to -1,406 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -55 billion rupiah equity payout -320 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -1,077 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
37 ; 6 ; 6 ; 6 ; 6 billion rupiah
-11 ; 11 ; 169 ; 84 ; 291 billion rupiah
  • MLPT.jk paid 296 billion rupiah in the third quarter 6 billion rupiah liabilities 291 billion rupiah equity, will pay 375 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market cap of 3,806 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.70 X assets with a 5 years payback & a 1% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 384 billion rupiah which means a 10 X valuation. A 12 X valuation gives a 21% higher target price 2,460 rupiah.
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