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MLIA looking very sharp with a 13% yield forecast
MLIA Current 2,260 Target 8,927 + 295%
May 17, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 6%
Last 5 quarters
11% -11% 19% 10% 6%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-82% -81% -77% -77% -76%
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
373, 15, 4, 200, 400
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-2,696 -2,562 -2,470 -2,237 -1,951
Capital paid improved , a 295% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
628, 738, 668, 764, 829
May 17, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 6%
Last 5 quarters
11% -11% 19% 10% 6%
- Sales grew 6% in the first quarter to 1,332 billion rupiah 7% above our 1,247 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 6% growth.
- We predict average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,684 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-82% -81% -77% -77% -76%
- The cash cost ratio went from -77% to -76% profit from 217 to 255 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -78% now.
- We use the latest -76% cost ratio to predict a 340 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
373, 15, 4, 200, 400
- Free cashflow went from 200 to 400 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -9 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 155 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -9 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 397 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-2,696 -2,562 -2,470 -2,237 -1,951
- Cash increased 475 to 812 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 2,712 to 2,763 billion rupiah so net cash improved -2,237 to -1,951 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -375 billion rupiah equity payout -513 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -849 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved , a 295% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
628, 738, 668, 764, 829
- MLIA 21 quarter capital paid improved 764 to 829 billion rupiah in the first quarter with a -65 billion rupiah liabilities payment & will be 1,716 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 2,990 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.44 X assets with a 4 years payback & a 13% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 1,476 billion rupiah which means an 2 X valuation. A 8 X valuation gives a 295% higher target price 8,927 rupiah.