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MLIA 9% yield forecast

MLIA Current 540 Target 1,214 + 125%

October 25, 2022
1 minute read

  • MLIA last 12 months sales growth + 15%
  • MLIA last 12 months cash flow + 22% of market cap
  • MLIA last 12 months Capital + 10% of market cap
  • MLIA latest net cash -46% of market cap

Sales grew 11%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
19% 10% 6% -10% 11%
1,149 1,260 1,332 1,194 1,324
  • Sales grew 11% in the second quarter to 1,324 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 2% now.
  • This brings the average to 4% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 4% again in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,528 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.

Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-77% -77% -76% -76% -78%
191 217 255 224 223
  • The cash cost ratio went from -76% to -78% profit from 224 to 223 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
  • The average cost ratio is at -77% now.
  • We use the average -77% cost ratio to predict a 287 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.

Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
156 228 410 137 173
-151 -28 -9 -33 -83
  • Free cashflow went from 104 to 90 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -83 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 199 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -58 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 287 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.

Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
370 475 812 816 836
2,840 2,712 2,763 2,646 2,493
  • Cash increased 816 to 836 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
  • Liabilities declined 2,646 to 2,493 billion rupiah so net cash was up -1,830 to -1,657 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & -331 billion rupiah equity -462 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -840 billion rupiah in 12 months time.

Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
668 764 829 935 1,011
-58 88 65 106 76
0 0 0 0 0
  • MLIA cumulative capital improved 935 to 1,011 billion rupiah with + 76 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be 1,804 billion rupiah in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 3,572 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.52 X assets with a 5 years payback & a 9% yield.
  • Our 12m cashflow forecast is 1,148 billion rupiah (vs 794 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 3 X valuation. A 7 X valuation gives a 125% higher target price 1,214 dollars.
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