Other stocks here
MLIA sharp with an 8% yield forecast
MLIA Current 590 Target 1,214 + 106%
Jul 27, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -10%
Last 5 quarters
963 1,149 1,260 1,332 1,194
Costs flat profit down
Last 5 quarters
-81% -77% -77% -76% -76%
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
15 4 200 400 104
Balance sheet net cash improved Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-2,562 -2,470 -2,237 -1,951 -1,830
Cumulative capital last 12 months + 5% of market cap.
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
738 668 764 829 935
Jul 27, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -10%
Last 5 quarters
963 1,149 1,260 1,332 1,194
- Sales declined -10% in the second quarter to 1,194 billion rupiah -11% below our 1,345 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 6% growth.
- We predict average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,400 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs flat profit down
Last 5 quarters
-81% -77% -77% -76% -76%
- The cash cost ratio was flat at -76% profit declined from 255 to 224 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -77% now.
- We use the average -77% cost ratio to predict a 263 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
15 4 200 400 104
- Free cashflow went from 400 to 104 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -33 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 177 billion rupiah which is 18% of market cap.
- We assume -55 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 287 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Balance sheet net cash improved Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-2,562 -2,470 -2,237 -1,951 -1,830
- Cash increased 812 to 816 billion rupiah in the 0 quarter.
- Liabilities declined 2,763 to 2,646 billion rupiah so net cash improved -1,951 to -1,830 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -332 billion rupiah equity payout -491 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -1,014 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Cumulative capital last 12 months + 5% of market cap.
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
738 668 764 829 935
- MLIA 22 quarter cumulative capital paid improved 829 to 935 billion rupiah in the second quarter with + 106 billion rupiah from liabilities 0 billion rupiah from equity & will be 1,651 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 3,903 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.57 X assets with a 5 years payback & an 8% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 1,148 billion rupiah which means a 3 X valuation. A 7 X valuation gives a 106% higher target price 1,214 rupiah.
