MLIA 9% yield forecast
MLIA Current 540 Target 1,214 + 125%
October 25, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 11%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
19% 10% 6% -10% 11%
1,149 1,260 1,332 1,194 1,324
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-77% -77% -76% -76% -78%
191 217 255 224 223
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
156 228 410 137 173
-151 -28 -9 -33 -83
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
370 475 812 816 836
2,840 2,712 2,763 2,646 2,493
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
668 764 829 935 1,011
-58 88 65 106 76
0 0 0 0 0
October 25, 2022
1 minute read
- MLIA last 12 months sales growth + 15%
- MLIA last 12 months cash flow + 22% of market cap
- MLIA last 12 months Capital + 10% of market cap
- MLIA latest net cash -46% of market cap
Sales grew 11%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
19% 10% 6% -10% 11%
1,149 1,260 1,332 1,194 1,324
- Sales grew 11% in the second quarter to 1,324 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 2% now.
- This brings the average to 4% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% again in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,528 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-77% -77% -76% -76% -78%
191 217 255 224 223
- The cash cost ratio went from -76% to -78% profit from 224 to 223 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -77% now.
- We use the average -77% cost ratio to predict a 287 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
156 228 410 137 173
-151 -28 -9 -33 -83
- Free cashflow went from 104 to 90 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -83 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 199 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -58 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 287 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
370 475 812 816 836
2,840 2,712 2,763 2,646 2,493
- Cash increased 816 to 836 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 2,646 to 2,493 billion rupiah so net cash was up -1,830 to -1,657 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & -331 billion rupiah equity -462 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -840 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
668 764 829 935 1,011
-58 88 65 106 76
0 0 0 0 0
- MLIA cumulative capital improved 935 to 1,011 billion rupiah with + 76 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be 1,804 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 3,572 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.52 X assets with a 5 years payback & a 9% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 1,148 billion rupiah (vs 794 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 3 X valuation. A 7 X valuation gives a 125% higher target price 1,214 dollars.
