MLBI sales +18% YoY
MLBI Current 9,200 Target 14,779 + 61%
Aug 9, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -3%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-4% -3% 50% -16% -3%
555 536 802 674 653
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-61% -60% -58% -61% -62%
133 131 254 202 192
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
93 152 472 396 133
-65 -57 -95 -65 -51
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
624 570 638 868 544
2,154 2,036 1,823 1,808 2,192
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
862 1,015 1,312 1,412 1,819
-551 153 298 100 -450
997 0 0 0 857
Aug 9, 2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months cash flow + 5% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 5% of market cap
- Latest net cash -9% of market cap
Sales declined -3%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-4% -3% 50% -16% -3%
555 536 802 674 653
- Sales declined -3% in the second quarter to 653 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is 15% now.
- This brings the average to 7% growth.
- We predict average growth of 8% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 798 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-61% -60% -58% -61% -62%
133 131 254 202 192
- The cash cost ratio went from -61% to -62% profit from 202 to 192 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -60% now.
- We use the average -60% cost ratio to predict a 261 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
93 152 472 396 133
-65 -57 -95 -65 -51
- Free cashflow went from 331 to 82 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -51 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 221 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -51 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 299 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
624 570 638 868 544
2,154 2,036 1,823 1,808 2,192
- Cash declined 868 to 544 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 1,808 to 2,192 billion rupiah so net cash was down -940 to -1,648 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -583 billion rupiah equity payout -407 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -1,033 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
862 1,015 1,312 1,412 1,819
-551 153 298 100 -450
997 0 0 0 857
- MLBI cumulative capital improved 1,412 to 1,819 billion rupiah with -450 & + 857 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be 2,554 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 19,384 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 6.46 X assets with a 2 years payback & a 3% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 1,198 billion rupiah which means an 16 X valuation. A 26 X valuation gives a 61% higher target price 14,779 rupiah.
