MLBI sales jump
MLBI Current 8,725 Target 15,914 + 82%
Oct 26, 2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped 21%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-3% 50% -16% -3% 21%
536 802 674 653 792
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-60% -58% -61% -62% -65%
131 254 202 192 213
Cashflow much higher
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
152 472 396 133 411
-57 -95 -65 -51 -85
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
570 638 868 544 520
2,036 1,823 1,808 2,192 1,974
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
1,015 1,312 1,412 1,819 2,169
153 298 100 -450 350
0 0 0 857 0
Oct 26, 2022
1 minute read
- MLBI last 12 months sales growth + 48%
- MLBI last 12 months cash flow + 6% of market cap
- MLBI last 12 months Capital + 6% of market cap
- MLBI latest net cash -8% of market cap
Sales jumped 21%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-3% 50% -16% -3% 21%
536 802 674 653 792
- Sales jumped 21% in the third quarter to 792 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 4% now.
- This brings the average to 13% growth.
- We predict average growth of 8% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 983 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-60% -58% -61% -62% -65%
131 254 202 192 213
- The cash cost ratio went from -62% to -65% profit from 192 to 213 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -61% now.
- We use the average -61% cost ratio to predict a 319 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow much higher
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
152 472 396 133 411
-57 -95 -65 -51 -85
- Free cashflow went from 82 to 326 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -85 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 279 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -67 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 322 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
570 638 868 544 520
2,036 1,823 1,808 2,192 1,974
- Cash declined 544 to 520 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 2,192 to 1,974 billion rupiah so net cash was up -1,648 to -1,454 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -657 billion rupiah equity payout -366 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -821 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
1,015 1,312 1,412 1,819 2,169
153 298 100 -450 350
0 0 0 857 0
- MLBI cumulative capital improved 1,819 to 2,169 billion rupiah with + 350 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be 2,809 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 18,384 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 5.91 X assets with a 2 years payback & a 4% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 1,290 billion rupiah (vs 1,135 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 14 X valuation. A 26 X valuation gives a 82% higher target price 15,914 rupiah.
