Other stocks here
MLBI, looking sharper as cashflow continues strong
MLBI Current 9,125 Target 14,725 + 61%
Apr 27, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally
-16% -4% -3% 50% -16%
Costs up profit down
-60% -61% -60% -58% -61%
Cashflow slightly lower
407, 31, 98, 380, 359
Balance sheet net cash improved
-608, -1,530, -1,466, -1,185, -940
Capital paid improved , a 61% higher target price
416, 862, 1,015, 1,312, 1,412
Apr 27, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally
-16% -4% -3% 50% -16%
- Sales declined seasonally -16% in the first quarter to 674 billion rupiah -7% below our 722 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 6% growth.
- We predict average growth of 9% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 881 billion rupiah in the first quarter of 2023.
Costs up profit down
-60% -61% -60% -58% -61%
- The cash cost ratio went from -58% to -61% profit from 254 to 202 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -60% now.
- We use the average -60% cost ratio to predict a 292 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter of 2023.
Cashflow slightly lower
407, 31, 98, 380, 359
- Free cashflow went slightly lower from 380 to 359 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -65 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 217 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -65 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 290 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter of 2023.
Balance sheet net cash improved
-608, -1,530, -1,466, -1,185, -940
- Cash increased 638 to 868 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities declined 1,823 to 1,808 billion rupiah so net cash improved -1,185 to -940 billion rupiah
- With our forecast cashflow & a -729 billion rupiah equity payout -305 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -635 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved , a 61% higher target price
416, 862, 1,015, 1,312, 1,412
- MLBI capital from the last 25 quarters improved 1,312 to 1,412 billion rupiah in the first quarter. with a -100 liabilities payment & will be 2,446 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 19,226 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 6.17 X assets with a 2 years payback & a 4% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 1,034 billion rupiah which means an 19 X valuation. A 30 X valuation gives a 61% higher target price 14,725 rupiah.