sharpfokus
  • Asjmp
  • English
  • ABMM
  • ADMF
  • AVIA
  • BBTN
  • BISI
  • BLTZ
  • BNII
  • BNLI
  • BRMS
  • BUKK
  • BVIC
  • CMNP
  • CMNT
  • DLTA
  • DRMA
  • DVLA
  • DYAN
  • EAST
  • FASW
  • GOTO
  • HEXA
  • IKBI
  • INTD
  • IPPE
  • ITMG
  • JIHD
  • KDSI
  • KIJA
  • MEGA
  • MERK
  • MMLP
  • MPMX
  • MTDL
  • MTEL
  • NFCX
  • NISP
  • OKAS
  • RIGS
  • SLIS
  • STAA
  • STTP
  • TGKA
  • VICI
  • WEHA
  • WIRG
  • WOMF
  • Home
  • BERK
  • CL
  • CVX
  • CVX
  • FB
  • GOLD
  • INTC
  • IP
  • MAR
  • PG
  • PEP
  • T
  • TSN
  • TWTR
  • TXN
  • V
  • Presents
  • Kenny
  • Ranks
  • Palmweekly
  • Stockbit
  • TIRA
  • Meeting
  • MBAP
  • HTUFS
  • 7Steps
  • INTA
  • Model
  • MCOL
  • ESTI
  • Intern
  • Stockbitapp
  • SONA
  • Model1
  • Pdf
  • OBMD
  • PSKT
  • DGIK
  • Data
  • Above
  • IATA
  • mm
  • Untitled
  • Capital
  • Subscribe
  • SharpfokUS
Picture

MLBI sales jump

MLBI Current 8,725 Target 15,914 + 82%

Oct 26, 2022
1 minute read
​
  • MLBI last 12 months sales growth + 48%
  • MLBI last 12 months cash flow + 6% of market cap
  • MLBI last 12 months Capital + 6% of market cap
  • MLBI latest net cash -8% of market cap

Sales jumped 21%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-3% 50% -16% -3% 21%
536 802 674 653 792
  • Sales jumped 21% in the third quarter to 792 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 4% now.
  • This brings the average to 13% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 8% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 983 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
​
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-60% -58% -61% -62% -65%
131 254 202 192 213
  • The cash cost ratio went from -62% to -65% profit from 192 to 213 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cost ratio is at -61% now.
  • We use the average -61% cost ratio to predict a 319 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
​
Cashflow much higher
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
152 472 396 133 411
-57 -95 -65 -51 -85
  • Free cashflow went from 82 to 326 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -85 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 279 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -67 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 322 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
​
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
570 638 868 544 520
2,036 1,823 1,808 2,192 1,974
  • Cash declined 544 to 520 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities declined 2,192 to 1,974 billion rupiah so net cash was up -1,648 to -1,454 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -657 billion rupiah equity payout -366 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -821 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
1,015 1,312 1,412 1,819 2,169
153 298 100 -450 350
0 0 0 857 0
  • MLBI cumulative capital improved 1,819 to 2,169 billion rupiah with + 350 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be 2,809 billion rupiah in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 18,384 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 5.91 X assets with a 2 years payback & a 4% yield.
  • Our 12m cashflow forecast is 1,290 billion rupiah (vs 1,135 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 14 X valuation. A 26 X valuation gives a 82% higher target price 15,914 rupiah.
Picture
SUBSCRIBE
  • Asjmp
  • English
  • ABMM
  • ADMF
  • AVIA
  • BBTN
  • BISI
  • BLTZ
  • BNII
  • BNLI
  • BRMS
  • BUKK
  • BVIC
  • CMNP
  • CMNT
  • DLTA
  • DRMA
  • DVLA
  • DYAN
  • EAST
  • FASW
  • GOTO
  • HEXA
  • IKBI
  • INTD
  • IPPE
  • ITMG
  • JIHD
  • KDSI
  • KIJA
  • MEGA
  • MERK
  • MMLP
  • MPMX
  • MTDL
  • MTEL
  • NFCX
  • NISP
  • OKAS
  • RIGS
  • SLIS
  • STAA
  • STTP
  • TGKA
  • VICI
  • WEHA
  • WIRG
  • WOMF
  • Home
  • BERK
  • CL
  • CVX
  • CVX
  • FB
  • GOLD
  • INTC
  • IP
  • MAR
  • PG
  • PEP
  • T
  • TSN
  • TWTR
  • TXN
  • V
  • Presents
  • Kenny
  • Ranks
  • Palmweekly
  • Stockbit
  • TIRA
  • Meeting
  • MBAP
  • HTUFS
  • 7Steps
  • INTA
  • Model
  • MCOL
  • ESTI
  • Intern
  • Stockbitapp
  • SONA
  • Model1
  • Pdf
  • OBMD
  • PSKT
  • DGIK
  • Data
  • Above
  • IATA
  • mm
  • Untitled
  • Capital
  • Subscribe
  • SharpfokUS