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MIKA sharp cashflow but expensive
MIKA Current 2,660 Target 2,471 -7%
May 16, 2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped 15%
Last 5 quarters
9% -1% -14% -7% 15%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-65% -67% -66% -57% -68%
Cashflow higher in investment gains
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
395, 594, 604, -30, 826
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
133, 826, 715, 347, 797
Capital paid improved , a -7% lower target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
2,120, 2,120, 2,800, 3,104, 3,450
May 16, 2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped 15%
Last 5 quarters
9% -1% -14% -7% 15%
- Sales jumped 15% in the first quarter to 1,093 billion rupiah 10% above our 994 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to -2% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,193 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-65% -67% -66% -57% -68%
- The cash cost ratio went from -57% to -68% profit from 352 to 295 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -65% now.
- We use the average -65% cost ratio to predict a 367 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher in investment gains
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
395, 594, 604, -30, 826
- Free cashflow went from -30 to 826 billion rupiah in the first quarter with 617 billion rupiah investment gains.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 498 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -57 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 364 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
133, 826, 715, 347, 797
- Cash increased 1,283 to 1,763 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 936 to 966 billion rupiah so net cash improved 347 to 797 billion rupiah
- With our forecast cashflow & a -1,112 billion rupiah equity payout -179 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be 1,060 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved , a -7% lower target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
2,120, 2,120, 2,800, 3,104, 3,450
- MIKA 25 quarter capital paid improved 3,104 to 3,450 billion rupiah in the first quarter with a -346 billion rupiah equity payment & will be 4,742 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 37,019 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 5.3 X assets with a 4 years payback & a 3% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 1,376 billion rupiah which means an 27 X valuation. A 25 X valuation gives a -7% lower target price 2,471 rupiah.