MIKA a bit expensive
MIKA Current 2,610 Target 2,666 + 2%
Aug 15, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -10%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-1% -14% -7% 15% -10%
1,186 1,017 946 1,093 980
Costs down profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-67% -66% -57% -68% -65%
338 298 352 295 281
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
340 281 990 210 155
254 323 -1,021 617 -48
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
1,694 1,617 1,283 1,763 1,352
868 902 936 966 805
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
2,120 2,800 3,104 3,450 3,969
0 0 0 0 0
0 681 304 346 518
Aug 15, 2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months cash flow + 4% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 5% of market cap
- Latest net cash + 2% of market cap
Sales declined -10%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-1% -14% -7% 15% -10%
1,186 1,017 946 1,093 980
- Sales declined -10% in the second quarter to 980 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 5% now.
- This brings the average to -4% growth.
- We predict average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,167 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs down profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-67% -66% -57% -68% -65%
338 298 352 295 281
- The cash cost ratio went from -68% to -65% profit from 295 to 281 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -64% now.
- We use the average -64% cost ratio to predict a 355 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
340 281 990 210 155
254 323 -1,021 617 -48
- Free cashflow went from 826 to 108 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -48 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 377 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -48 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 344 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
1,694 1,617 1,283 1,763 1,352
868 902 936 966 805
- Cash declined 1,763 to 1,352 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 966 to 805 billion rupiah so net cash was down 797 to 547 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -1,177 billion rupiah equity payout -149 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be 744 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
2,120 2,800 3,104 3,450 3,969
0 0 0 0 0
0 681 304 346 518
- MIKA cumulative capital improved 3,450 to 3,969 billion rupiah with 0 & + 518 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be 5,295 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 36,330 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 5.7 X assets with a 4 years payback & a 3% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 1,374 billion rupiah which means a 26 X valuation. A 27 X valuation gives a 2% higher target price 2,666 rupiah.
