MIKA expensive
MIKA Current 2,760 Target 2,094 -24%
11/16/22
1 minute read
Sales grew 2%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-14% -7% 15% -10% 2%
1,017 946 1,093 980 1,000
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-66% -57% -68% -65% -71%
298 352 295 281 230
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment Cashflow billion rupiah
281 990 210 155 296
323 -1,021 617 -48 -304
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
1,617 1,283 1,763 1,352 1,340
902 936 966 805 863
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, new from liabilities, equity
2,800 3,104 3,450 3,969 3,974
0 0 0 0 0
681 304 346 518 5
11/16/22
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth -2%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 2% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 3% of market cap
- Latest net cash + 1% of market cap
Sales grew 2%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-14% -7% 15% -10% 2%
1,017 946 1,093 980 1,000
- Sales grew 2% in the third quarter to 1,000 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 4% now.
- This brings the average to 0% growth.
- We predict average growth of 0% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 982 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-66% -57% -68% -65% -71%
298 352 295 281 230
- The cash cost ratio went from -65% to -71% profit from 281 to 230 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -65% now.
- We use a -67% cost ratio to predict a 255 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment Cashflow billion rupiah
281 990 210 155 296
323 -1,021 617 -48 -304
- Free cashflow went negative from 108 to -8 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -304 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 224 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -176 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with lower sales gives 146 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
1,617 1,283 1,763 1,352 1,340
902 936 966 805 863
- Cash declined 1,352 to 1,340 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 805 to 863 billion rupiah so net cash was down 547 to 477 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -820 billion rupiah equity payout + 238 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be 239 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, new from liabilities, equity
2,800 3,104 3,450 3,969 3,974
0 0 0 0 0
681 304 346 518 5
- MIKA cumulative capital improved 3,969 to 3,974 billion rupiah with 0 & + 5 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be 4,556 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 38,390 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 5.4 X assets with a 9 years payback & a 2% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 583 billion rupiah which means a 66 X valuation. A 50 X valuation gives a -24% lower target price 2,094 rupiah.
