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Picture

MGRO lower sales

MGRO.jk Current 790 Target 589 -25%
​
12/14/2022
1 minute read

  • Last 12 months sales growth -32%
  • Last 12 months cash flow -21% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital -29% of market cap
  • Latest net cash -57% of market cap
​
Sales declined -26%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
49% 20% -13% -12% -26%
2,114 ; 2,543 ; 2,224 ; 1,955 ; 1,440
  • Sales declined -26% in the third quarter to 1,440 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -70% now.
  • This brings the average to -8% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,618 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
​
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
4% 2% 1% 0% -2%
55 ; 33 ; 7 ; -14 ; -55
  • The cash margin went from 0% to -2% profit from -14 to -55 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at 0% now.
  • We use a 3% cash margin to predict a 31 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
​
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
165 ; -27 ; -282 ; -210 ; 48
-7 ; -42 ; -3 ; -17 ; -48
  • Free cashflow went from -226 to -1 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -48 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at -145 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -23 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 29 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
​
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
212 ; 91 ; 109 ; 283 ; 429
1,307 ; 1,110 ; 1,472 ; 1,813 ; 2,018
  • Cash increased 283 to 429 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 1,813 to 2,018 billion rupiah so net cash was down -1,530 to -1,589 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -115 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -1,473 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
60 ; 58 ; -303 ; -425 ; -147
0 ; -6 ; 0 ; 25 ; 0
  • MGRO.jk (raised) -147 billion rupiah in the third quarter -147 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity, will pay 115 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market value of 2,785 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.05 X assets with a 19 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 115 billion rupiah which means a 24 X valuation. A 18 X valuation gives a -25% lower target price 589 rupiah.
SHARPFOKUS DATA
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