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MGRO less sharp with negative cashflow
MGRO Current 875 Target 953 + 9%
May 15, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -13%
Last 5 quarters
-21% 15% 49% 20% -13%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-100% -97% -96% -98% -99%
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-78 -184 157 -69 -285
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-838 -1,024 -1,095 -1,019 -1,363
Capital raised worsened , a 9% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-641 -676 -616 -563 -866
May 15, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -13%
Last 5 quarters
-21% 15% 49% 20% -13%
- Sales declined -13% in the first quarter to 2,224 billion rupiah -16% below our 2,645 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 18% growth.
- We predict average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,647 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-100% -97% -96% -98% -99%
- The cash cost ratio went from -98% to -99% profit from 33 to 7 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -97% now.
- We use the average -97% cost ratio to predict a 45 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-78 -184 157 -69 -285
- Free cashflow went more negative from -69 to -285 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -3 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -95 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -3 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 65 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-838 -1,024 -1,095 -1,019 -1,363
- Cash increased 91 to 109 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 1,110 to 1,472 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -1,019 to -1,363 billion rupiah
- With our forecast cashflow & a -17 billion rupiah equity payout -197 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -1,132 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital raised worsened , a 9% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-641 -676 -616 -563 -866
- MGRO 17 quarter capital raised worsened -563 to -866 billion rupiah in the first quarter with 303 billion rupiah new liabilities but will be -618 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 3,085 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.46 X assets with a 8 years payback & a 1% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 258 billion rupiah which means a 12 X valuation. A 13 X valuation gives a 9% higher target price 953 rupiah.