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Picture

META cashflow more negative

META.jk Current 121 Target 83 -31%

12/9/2022
1 minute read

  • Last 12 months sales growth + 33%
  • Last 12 months cash flow -20% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital + 3% of market cap
  • Latest net cash -145% of market cap

Sales declined slightly
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-6% 26% -4% 10% -0%
155 ; 196 ; 189 ; 207 ; 206
  • Sales declined slightlu in the third quarter to 206 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -1% now.
  • This brings the average to 8% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 227 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
​
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
15% 18% 31% 31% 37%
-10 ; -3 ; 28 ; 32 ; 40
  • The cash margin went from 31% to 37% profit from 32 to 40 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at 29% now.
  • We use a 34% cash margin to predict a 44 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
​
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
86 ; 14 ; 47 ; 6 ; 84
-95 ; -23 ; -218 ; -48 ; -235
  • Free cashflow went from -42 to -150 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -235 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at -93 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -48 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 26 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.

Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
308 ; 986 ; 725 ; 665 ; 616
3,339 ; 3,226 ; 3,205 ; 3,144 ; 3,285
  • Cash declined 665 to 616 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 3,144 to 3,285 billion rupiah so net cash was down -2,479 to -2,669 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -105 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -2,564 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-783 ; 82 ; 42 ; 26 ; -114
0 ; 10 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0
  • META.jk (raised) -114 billion rupiah in the third quarter -114 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity, will pay 105 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market value of 1,844 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.27 X assets with a 59 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 105 billion rupiah which means a 18 X valuation. A 12 X valuation gives a -31% lower target price 83 rupiah.
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