META cashflow less negative
META Current 181 Target 182 + 1%
Sep 15, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 10%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
15% -6% 26% -4% 10%
166 155 196 189 207
Costs flat profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-81% -85% -82% -69% -69%
4 -10 -3 28 32
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
-23 86 14 47 6
-170 -95 -23 -218 -48
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
330 308 986 725 665
2,594 3,339 3,226 3,205 3,144
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
-1,825 -2,608 -2,516 -2,474 -2,447
-103 -783 82 42 26
0 0 10 0 0
Sep 15, 2022
1 minute read
- META last 12 months sales growth + 25%
- META last 12 months cash flow -7% of market cap
- META last 12 months Capital -20% of market cap
- META latest net cash -79% of market cap
Sales grew 10%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
15% -6% 26% -4% 10%
166 155 196 189 207
- Sales grew 10% in the second quarter to 207 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -0% now.
- This brings the average to 6% growth.
- We predict average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 249 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs flat profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-81% -85% -82% -69% -69%
4 -10 -3 28 32
- The cash cost ratio was flat at -69% profit increased from 28 to 32 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -76% now.
- We use the average -76% cost ratio to predict a 27 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
-23 86 14 47 6
-170 -95 -23 -218 -48
- Free cashflow went less negative from -171 to -42 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -48 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -58 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -48 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 7 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
330 308 986 725 665
2,594 3,339 3,226 3,205 3,144
- Cash declined 725 to 665 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 3,205 to 3,144 billion rupiah so net cash was up -2,480 to -2,479 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -26 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -2,453 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
-1,825 -2,608 -2,516 -2,474 -2,447
-103 -783 82 42 26
0 0 10 0 0
- META cumulative capital improved -2,474 to -2,447 billion rupiah with + 26 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be -2,421 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 3,136 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.47 X assets with a 226 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 26 billion rupiah (vs -231 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 120 X valuation. A 121 X valuation gives a 1% higher target price 182 rupiah.
