MERK 6% yield forecast
MERK.jk Current 5,200 Target 7,773 + 49%
11/21/2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -10%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
10% -0% 9% -1% -10%
279 278 302 298 269
Costs flat profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-84% -85% -85% -83% -83%
36 14 63 60 27
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
49 0 47 3 -21
2 -21 -5 -4 1
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
217 196 237 129 110
249 342 314 289 225
Capital flat
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
0 0 0 0 0
55 -1 0 107 0
11/21/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth -4%
- Last 12 months cash flow -0% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 5% of market cap
- Latest net cash -5% of market cap
Sales declined -10%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
10% -0% 9% -1% -10%
279 278 302 298 269
- Sales declined -10% in the third quarter to 269 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 3% now.
- This brings the average to -1% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 284 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs flat profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-84% -85% -85% -83% -83%
36 14 63 60 27
- The cash cost ratio was flat at -83% profit declined from 60 to 27 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -84% now.
- We use a -83% cost ratio to predict a 41 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
49 0 47 3 -21
2 -21 -5 -4 1
- Free cashflow went from -1 to -20 billion rupiah in the third quarter with 1 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -0 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -1 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 46 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
217 196 237 129 110
249 342 314 289 225
- Cash declined 129 to 110 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 289 to 225 billion rupiah so net cash was up -160 to -115 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -132 billion rupiah equity payout -42 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -63 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital flat
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
0 0 0 0 0
55 -1 0 107 0
- MERK.jk paid 0 billion rupiah in the third quarter 0 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity but will pay 173 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market value of 2,330 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 2.47 X assets with a 6 years payback & a 6% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 183 billion rupiah which means a 13 X valuation. A 19 X valuation gives a 49% higher target price 7,773 rupiah.
