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Picture
Picture

MEGA.jk Cashflow more positive

Current 5,600 Target 6,363 + 14%

Feb 3, 2023
1 minute read

  • Last 12 months sales growth + 8%
  • Last 12 months cash flow + 5% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) + 2% of market cap
  • Latest cash minus liabilities -155% of market cap

Sales grew 2%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly sales
10% -16% 10% 16% 2%
2,812 ; 2,357 ; 2,591 ; 2,998 ; 3,048 billion rupiah
  • Sales grew 2% in the fourth quarter to 3,048 billion rupiah .
  • This brings the quarterly average to 3% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 3,296 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 2023.

Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash profit margin, net profit
57% 35% 35% 41% 50%
1,478 ; 704 ; 790 ; 1,147 ; 1,412 billion rupiah
  • The cash profit margin went from 41% to 50% net profit from 1,147 to 1,412 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
  • The average margin is at 40% now.
  • We use a 40% cash profit margin to predict a 1,218 billion rupiah net profit in the fourth quarter 2023.

Cashflow jumps positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
-4,674 ; -6,956 ; 16,607 ; 22 ; 6,888 billion rupiah
9,634 ; 3,102 ; -15,625 ; -2,476 ; 1,591 billion rupiah
  • Free cashflow went from -2,454 to 8,479 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with 1,591 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 788 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -443 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 849 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.

Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
17,592 ; 10,654 ; 12,381 ; 10,780 ; 19,517 billion rupiah
113,735 ; 96,290 ; 106,327 ; 108,049 ; 121,117 billion rupiah
  • Cash increased 10,780 to 19,517 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 108,049 to 121,117 billion rupiah so net cash was down -97,269 to -101,600 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -1,423 billion rupiah equity payout -1,973 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -99,627 billion rupiah in 12 months time.

Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
-4 ; 285 ; -745 ; -854 ; -257 billion rupiah
0 ; 2,800 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 billion rupiah
  • MEGA.jk (raised) -257 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter -257 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity, will pay 3,396 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market cap of 65,749 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.46 X assets with a 36 years payback & a 2% yield forecast.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 3,396 billion rupiah which means a 19 X valuation. A 22 X valuation gives a 14% higher target price 6,363 rupiah.
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