MEGA negative cashflow
MEGA.jk Current 5,400 Target 4,917 -9%
11/22/2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 16%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
2% 10% -16% 10% 16%
2,564 2,812 2,357 2,591 2,998
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-59% -57% -57% -57% -58%
967 1,478 704 790 1,147
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
-1,124 -4,674 -6,956 16,607 22
3,396 9,634 3,102 -15,625 -2,476
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
12,348 17,592 10,654 12,381 10,780
101,459 113,735 96,290 106,327 108,049
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
0 -4 285 -745 -854
0 0 2,800 0 0
11/22/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 17%
- Last 12 months cash flow -1% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 2% of market cap
- Latest net cash -153% of market cap
Sales grew 16%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
2% 10% -16% 10% 16%
2,564 2,812 2,357 2,591 2,998
- Sales grew 16% in the third quarter to 2,998 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 3% now.
- This brings the average to 5% growth.
- We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 3,119 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-59% -57% -57% -57% -58%
967 1,478 704 790 1,147
- The cash cost ratio went from -57% to -58% profit from 790 to 1,147 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -57% now.
- We use a -58% cost ratio to predict a 1,216 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
-1,124 -4,674 -6,956 16,607 22
3,396 9,634 3,102 -15,625 -2,476
- Free cashflow went from 982 to -2,454 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -2,476 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -91 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -394 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 902 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
12,348 17,592 10,654 12,381 10,780
101,459 113,735 96,290 106,327 108,049
- Cash declined 12,381 to 10,780 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 106,327 to 108,049 billion rupiah so net cash was down -93,946 to -97,269 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -950 billion rupiah equity payout -43 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -94,611 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
0 -4 285 -745 -854
0 0 2,800 0 0
- MEGA.jk (raised) -854 billion rupiah in the third quarter -854 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity & will pay 993 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market value of 63,401 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.49 X assets with a 38 years payback & a 1% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 3,608 billion rupiah which means a 18 X valuation. A 16 X valuation gives a -9% lower target price 4,917 rupiah.
