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MEGA dull with negative cashflow
MEGA Current 5,900 Target 6,570 + 11%
May 20, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -16%
Last 5 quarters
-9% 7% 2% 10% -16%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-65% -64% -59% -43% -65%
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters
360 4,405 2,272 4,960 -3,854
Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 5 quarters
-90,162 -88,798 -89,111 -96,143 -85,636
Capital paid improved 11% higher target price
Last 5 quarters
3,851, 3,851, 3,851, 3,847, 6,932
May 20, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -16%
Last 5 quarters
-9% 7% 2% 10% -16%
- Sales declined -16% in the first quarter to 2,357 billion rupiah -15% below vs our 2,784 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 1% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,624 billion rupiah in the first quarter of 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-65% -64% -59% -43% -65%
- The cash cost ratio went from -43% to -65% profit from 1,478 to 704 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -58% now.
- We use -58% cost ratio to predict a 992 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter of 2023.
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters
360 4,405 2,272 4,960 -3,854
- Free cashflow went negative from 4,960 to -3,854 billion rupiah in the first quarter with 3,102 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 1,946 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -266 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 841 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter of 2023.
Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 5 quarters
-90,162 -88,798 -89,111 -96,143 -85,636
- Non cash assets growth declined 7.3% to -11.1% in the first quarter. Average growth is -0.6% now.
- Syahriah growth declined 12.1% to -15.3% in the first quarter. Average growth is 0.6% now.
- The sales to asset ratio worsened 2.4% to 2.3% in the first quarter. Average sales to assets is 2.4% now.
Capital paid improved 11% higher target price
Last 5 quarters
3,851, 3,851, 3,851, 3,847, 6,932
- MEGA 13 quarters capital paid improved 3,847 to 6,932 billion rupiah in the first quarter. with -285 billion rupiah liabilities, -2,800 billion rupiah equity payout & will be 8,040 in the in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 69,271 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.60 X assets with a 2% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 3,085 billion rupiah which means a 22 X valuation. A 25 X valuation gives an 11% higher target price of 6,570 rupiah.