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MEDC, a 42% higher target price
Current 484 Target 688 +42%

December 23rd 2021
1 minute read

Sales declined -5%
  • Sales declined -5% in the third quarter to 320 million dollars vs our 340 million dollars forecast.
  • This brings the quarterly average to 8% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 384 million dollars in the third quarter of 2022.
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Costs 1 point higher, profit down
  • The cash cost ratio went from -64% to -65% profit from 36 to 26 million dollars in the third quarter.
  • The average Cashflow cost ratio is higher at -80% now.
  • We use a median -68% cost ratio to predict a 39 million dollars profit in the third quarter of 2022.
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Cashflow back to positive
  • Free cashflow turned back positive from -60 to 25 million dollars in the third quarter with -26 million dollars investment Cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 12 million dollars now.
  • We assume higher -32 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives a higher 60 million dollars Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
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Balance sheet lower leverage
  • Cash increased 431 to 482 million dollars in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities declined 4,125 to 4,045 million dollars so net cash improved -3,694 to -3,563 million dollars.
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -36 million dollars equity payout -290 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -3,273 million dollars in 12 months time.
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Valuation, a 42% higher target price
  • MEDC capital from the last 27 quarters worsened -1,248 to -1,275 million dollars in the third quarter​ with 28 million dollars new liabilities & a -2 million dollars equity payout but will improve to -1,069 million dollars in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 866 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 0.17 X assets with a 23 years payback & a 4% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 205 million dollars which means an 4 X valuation. A 6 X valuation gives a 42% higher target price of 688 rupiah.
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  • Files1
  • ADMF
  • AVIA
  • BBTN
  • BNII
  • ITMG
  • MEGA
  • MPMX
  • MTEL
  • NISP
  • VICI
  • WOMF4
  • Home
  • CVX
  • FB
  • MAR
  • TSN
  • TWTR
  • Presents
  • Kenny
  • Ranks
  • Palmweekly
  • WEHA
  • stockbit
  • TIRA