MEDC 2X forecast cashflow
MEDC Current 835 Target 1,588 + 90%
Aug 29, 2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped 34%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
12% -5% 15% 33% 34%
336 320 367 489 658
Costs flat profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-65% -66% -86% -50% -50%
36 26 -8 96 185
Cashflow positive
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
-34 51 81 119 79
44 -26 -60 -811 -49
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
431 482 481 376 371
4,125 4,045 4,455 5,703 5,489
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity million dollars
-1,500 -1,526 -1,503 -2,090 -2,054
53 -28 17 -587 36
38 2 7 0 0
Aug 29, 2022
1 minute read
- MEDC last 12 months sales growth 4X average at + 96%
- BUT last 12 months cash flow -43% of market cap
- & last 12 months Capital -38% of market cap
- MEDC latest net cash -356% of market cap
Sales jumped 34%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
12% -5% 15% 33% 34%
336 320 367 489 658
- Sales jumped 34% in the second quarter to 658 million dollars ; our forecasts v sales is + 1% now.
- This brings the average to 19% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 737 million dollars in the second quarter 2023.
Costs flat profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-65% -66% -86% -50% -50%
36 26 -8 96 185
- The cash cost ratio was flat at -50% profit jumped from 96 to 185 million dollars in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -63% now.
- We use a -56% cost ratio to predict a 176 million dollars profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow positive
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
-34 51 81 119 79
44 -26 -60 -811 -49
- Free cashflow went from -692 to 30 million dollars in the second quarter with -49 million dollars investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -154 million dollars now.
- We assume the same -49 million dollars investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 228 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
431 482 481 376 371
4,125 4,045 4,455 5,703 5,489
- Cash declined 376 to 371 million dollars in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 5,703 to 5,489 million dollars so net cash was up -5,327 to -5,118 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 million dollars equity payout -912 million dollars liabilities net cash will be -4,086 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity million dollars
-1,500 -1,526 -1,503 -2,090 -2,054
53 -28 17 -587 36
38 2 7 0 0
- MEDC cumulative capital improved -2,090 to -2,054 million dollars with + 36 & 0 million dollars from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be -1,142 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 1,439 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 0.22 X assets with a 7 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 912 million dollars (vs -616 million dollars the last 12m) which means a 2 X valuation. A 4 X valuation gives a 90% higher target price 1,588 rupiah.
