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Picture

MEDC at 2X cashflow

MEDC.jk Current 1,065 Target 1,310 + 23%

12/8/2022
1 minute read

  • Last 12 months sales growth + 127%
  • Last 12 months cash flow -24% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital -27% of market cap
  • Latest net cash -277% of market cap

Sales grew 8%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-6% 14% 34% 38% 8%
4,579 ; 5,243 ; 7,010 ; 9,642 ; 10,378
  • Sales grew 8% in the third quarter to 10,378 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is 5% now.
  • This brings the average to 23% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 11,205 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
​
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
34% 14% 50% 50% 49%
365 ; -110 ; 1,374 ; 2,714 ; 2,150
  • The cash margin went from 50% to 49% profit from 2,714 to 2,150 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at 41% now.
  • We use a 33% cash margin (from Cashflow) to predict a 1,361 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
​
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
725 ; 1,156 ; 1,702 ; 1,161 ; 3,604
-373 ; -854 ; -11,616 ; -721 ; -941
  • Free cashflow went from 440 to 2,664 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -941 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at -1,627 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -941 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 2,733 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
​
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
6,906 ; 6,866 ; 5,387 ; 5,439 ; 8,277
57,957 ; 63,595 ; 81,707 ; 80,469 ; 82,184
  • Cash increased 5,439 to 8,277 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 80,469 to 82,184 billion rupiah so net cash was up -75,030 to -73,908 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -516 billion rupiah equity payout -10,415 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -63,493 billion rupiah in 12 months time.

​Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-399 ; 236 ; -8,411 ; 529 ; -722
25 ; 96 ; 0 ; 0 ; 969
  • MEDC.jk paid 247 billion rupiah in the third quarter -722 billion rupiah liabilities 969 billion rupiah equity, will pay 10,930 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market value of 26,652 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.26 X assets with a 9 years payback & a 2% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 10,930 billion rupiah which means a 2 X valuation. A 3 X valuation gives a 23% higher target price 1,310 rupiah.
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