MDRN stilll at break-even
MDRN Current 50 Target 40 -19%
Aug 19, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -9%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-12% -8% 16% -8% -9%
19 17 20 19 17
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-90% -67% -119% -98% -107%
-3 -2 137 3 -2
Cashflow small negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
2 6 -4 0 -1
1 -4 3 0 -0
Net cash down slightly
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
1 1 2 2 1
846 848 658 655 658
Capital worsened slightly
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-71 -70 -73 -72 -72
4 1 -3 1 -1
0 0 0 0 0
Aug 19, 2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months cash flow -0% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital -0% of market cap
- Latest net cash -172% of market cap
Sales declined seasonally -9%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-12% -8% 16% -8% -9%
19 17 20 19 17
- Sales declined seasonally -9% in the second quarter to 17 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 16% now.
- This brings the average to -2% growth.
- We predict faster average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 21 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-90% -67% -119% -98% -107%
-3 -2 137 3 -2
- The cash cost ratio went from -98% to -107% profit from 3 to -2 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -98% now.
- We use the average -98% cost ratio to predict a -2 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow small negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
2 6 -4 0 -1
1 -4 3 0 -0
- Free cashflow went negative from 0 to -1 billion rupiah in the second quarter with 0 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -0 billion rupiah now.
- We assume 0 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives positive 1 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down slightly
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
1 1 2 2 1
846 848 658 655 658
- Cash declined 2 to 1 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 655 to 658 billion rupiah so net cash was down -653 to -657 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -2 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -654 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital worsened slightly
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-71 -70 -73 -72 -72
4 1 -3 1 -1
0 0 0 0 0
- MDRN cumulative capital worsened slightly to -72 billion rupiah with -1 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter but will be -70 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 382 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.60 X assets with a 117 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 2 billion rupiah which means a 181 X valuation. A 150 X valuation gives a -19% lower target price 40 rupiah.
