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MDRN, a -68% lower target price
Current 50 Target 16 -68%

November 22nd 2021
1 minute read

Sales declined-8%
  • Sales declined -8% in the third quarter to 17 billion rupiah vs our 21 billion rupiah forecast.
  • This brings the quarterly average to -5% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 14% to bring sales to 29 billion rupiah in the third quarter of 2022.
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Costs 5 points lower
  • The cash cost ratio was 5 points lower at -102% in the third quarter giving a -2 billion rupiah net profit.
  • The average Cashflow cost ratio is at -87% now.
  • We use -91% cost ratio to predict a 1 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.
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Cashflow positive with working capital
  • Free cashflow was positive again at 2 billion rupiah in the third quarter with working capital & despite a -4 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 2 billion rupiah now too.
  • We assume -0 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 2 billion rupiah Cashflow again in the third quarter of 2022.
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Balance sheet, higher leverage
  • Cash was flat at 1 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased from 846 to 848 billion rupiah so net cash worsened from -845 to -847 billion rupiah
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -1 billion rupiah equity payout net cash will be -839 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
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Valuation, a 68% lower target price
  • MDRN capital from the last 27 quarters improved 1 billion to -70 billion rupiah in the third quarter & will be -61 billion rupiah in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 382 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.30 X assets with a 35 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 9 billion rupiah which means an 44 X valuation. A 15 X valuation gives a -68% lower target price of 16 rupiah.
Data & model
  • Files1
  • ADMF
  • AVIA
  • BBTN
  • BNII
  • ITMG
  • MEGA
  • MPMX
  • MTEL
  • NISP
  • VICI
  • WOMF4
  • Home
  • CVX
  • FB
  • MAR
  • TSN
  • TWTR
  • Presents
  • Kenny
  • Ranks
  • Palmweekly
  • WEHA
  • stockbit
  • TIRA