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MDKA looking dull with even more negative cashflow
MDKA Current 4,750 Target 2,132 -55%
May 19, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 3%
83% 91% 42% -5% 3%
Costs up profit up
-59% -44% -58% -60% -67%
Cashflow lower
-31 29 -39 -113 -347
Balance sheet net cash worsened
-162 -177 -210 -314 -751
Capital raised worsened , a -55% lower target price
-557 -565 -497 -593 -876
May 19, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 3%
83% 91% 42% -5% 3%
- Sales grew 3% in the first quarter to 123 million dollars 4% above our 119 million dollars forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 33% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 140 million dollars in the first quarter of 2023.
Costs up profit up
-59% -44% -58% -60% -67%
- The cash cost ratio went from -60% to -67% profit from 15 to 65 million dollars in the first quarter on large other gains (tax rebate).
- The average cost ratio is at -57% now.
- We use the average -57% cost ratio to predict a 27 million dollars profit in the first quarter of 2023.
Cashflow lower
-31 29 -39 -113 -347
- Free cashflow went from -113 to -347 million dollars in the first quarter with -414 million dollars investment Cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -117 million dollars now.
- We assume lower -115 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives a -59 million dollars Cashflow in the first quarter of 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
-162 -177 -210 -314 -751
- Cash declined 185 to 122 million dollars in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 499 to 873 million dollars so net cash worsened -314 to -751 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 million dollars equity payout 221 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -972 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital raised worsened , a -55% lower target price
-557 -565 -497 -593 -876
- MDKA 29 quarters capital raised worsened -593 to -876 million dollars in the third quarter with 283 million dollars new liabilities 1 million dollars new equity & will be -1,097 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 8,180 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 3.91 X assets with an 8 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our operating cashflow forecast is 216 million dollars which means a 38 X valuation. A 17 X valuation gives a -55% lower target price 2,132 rupiah.