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Picture
MDKA.jk Cashflow less negative
​

Current 4,300 Target 2,497 -42%

12/19/2022
1 minute read

  • Last 12 months sales growth + 148%
  • Last 12 months cash flow -9% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) -12% of market cap
  • Latest net cash -18% of market cap
​
Sales grew 40%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
40% -5% 3% 81% 40%
1,802 ; 1,710 ; 1,764 ; 3,200 ; 4,470
  • Sales grew 40% in the third quarter to 4,470 billion rupiah ; our total forecasts v actual sales are + 4% now.
  • This brings the average to 30% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 4,695 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
​
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
34% 32% 128% 23% -8%
218 ; 213 ; 937 ; 509 ; -470
  • The cash margin went from 23% to -8% profit from 509 to -470 billion rupiah in the third quarter on non cash costs.
  • The average cash margin is at 44% now.
  • We use a 48% cash margin to predict a 1,684 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.

Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
1,087 ; 465 ; 967 ; 1,397 ; 3,786
-1,641 ; -2,083 ; -5,936 ; -3,175 ; -5,175
  • Free cashflow went from -1,778 to -1,388 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -5,175 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at -2,438 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -2,083 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 88 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.

Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
2,909 ; 2,641 ; 1,748 ; 6,025 ; 5,732
5,917 ; 7,123 ; 12,507 ; 20,964 ; 24,453
  • Cash declined 6,025 to 5,732 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 20,964 to 24,453 billion rupiah so net cash was down -14,939 to -18,720 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -354 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -18,366 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
1,058 ; -1,253 ; -4,049 ; -2,184 ; -1,473
-77 ; -123 ; -7 ; -3,958 ; 803
  • MDKA.jk (raised) -671 billion rupiah in the third quarter -1,473 billion rupiah liabilities 803 billion rupiah equity, will pay 354 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market value of 103,640 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.67 X assets with a 160 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 354 billion rupiah which means a 293 X valuation. A 170 X valuation gives a -42% lower target price 2,497 rupiah.

​MDKA.jk Penjualan tumbuh 40%
Harga sekarang 4,300 Target 2,497 -42%

12/19/2022
Waktu baca 1 menit


  • 12 bulan terakhir Pertumbuhan penjualan + 148%
  • 12 bulan terakhir Arus cash -9% persentase dari market cap
  • 12 bulan terakhir Kapital (hutang & ekuitas) -12% persentase dari market cap
  • Posisi saat ini kas - liabilitas -18% persentase dari market cap
​
Penjualan tumbuh 40%
5 kuartal terakhir pertumbuhan, penjualan rupiah miliar
40% -5% 3% 81% 40%
1,802 ; 1,710 ; 1,764 ;
  • Penjualan tumbuh 40% di kuartal ketiga sampai rupiah 4,470 miliar prediksi kami di banding dengan aktual + 4%
  • Kemudian pertumbuhan rata rata menjadi 30% ‘.
  • Kami memprediksikan pertumbuhan rata rata 1% dalam waktu 12 bulan sehingga penjualan akan menjadi rupiah 4,695 miliar di kuartal ketiga 2023.
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