MDKA.jk Cashflow less negative
Current 4,300 Target 2,497 -42%
12/19/2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 40%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
40% -5% 3% 81% 40%
1,802 ; 1,710 ; 1,764 ; 3,200 ; 4,470
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
34% 32% 128% 23% -8%
218 ; 213 ; 937 ; 509 ; -470
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
1,087 ; 465 ; 967 ; 1,397 ; 3,786
-1,641 ; -2,083 ; -5,936 ; -3,175 ; -5,175
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
2,909 ; 2,641 ; 1,748 ; 6,025 ; 5,732
5,917 ; 7,123 ; 12,507 ; 20,964 ; 24,453
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
1,058 ; -1,253 ; -4,049 ; -2,184 ; -1,473
-77 ; -123 ; -7 ; -3,958 ; 803
MDKA.jk Penjualan tumbuh 40%
Harga sekarang 4,300 Target 2,497 -42%
12/19/2022
Waktu baca 1 menit
Penjualan tumbuh 40%
5 kuartal terakhir pertumbuhan, penjualan rupiah miliar
40% -5% 3% 81% 40%
1,802 ; 1,710 ; 1,764 ;
Current 4,300 Target 2,497 -42%
12/19/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 148%
- Last 12 months cash flow -9% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) -12% of market cap
- Latest net cash -18% of market cap
Sales grew 40%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
40% -5% 3% 81% 40%
1,802 ; 1,710 ; 1,764 ; 3,200 ; 4,470
- Sales grew 40% in the third quarter to 4,470 billion rupiah ; our total forecasts v actual sales are + 4% now.
- This brings the average to 30% growth.
- We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 4,695 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
34% 32% 128% 23% -8%
218 ; 213 ; 937 ; 509 ; -470
- The cash margin went from 23% to -8% profit from 509 to -470 billion rupiah in the third quarter on non cash costs.
- The average cash margin is at 44% now.
- We use a 48% cash margin to predict a 1,684 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
1,087 ; 465 ; 967 ; 1,397 ; 3,786
-1,641 ; -2,083 ; -5,936 ; -3,175 ; -5,175
- Free cashflow went from -1,778 to -1,388 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -5,175 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -2,438 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -2,083 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 88 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
2,909 ; 2,641 ; 1,748 ; 6,025 ; 5,732
5,917 ; 7,123 ; 12,507 ; 20,964 ; 24,453
- Cash declined 6,025 to 5,732 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 20,964 to 24,453 billion rupiah so net cash was down -14,939 to -18,720 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -354 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -18,366 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
1,058 ; -1,253 ; -4,049 ; -2,184 ; -1,473
-77 ; -123 ; -7 ; -3,958 ; 803
- MDKA.jk (raised) -671 billion rupiah in the third quarter -1,473 billion rupiah liabilities 803 billion rupiah equity, will pay 354 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market value of 103,640 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.67 X assets with a 160 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 354 billion rupiah which means a 293 X valuation. A 170 X valuation gives a -42% lower target price 2,497 rupiah.
MDKA.jk Penjualan tumbuh 40%
Harga sekarang 4,300 Target 2,497 -42%
12/19/2022
Waktu baca 1 menit
- 12 bulan terakhir Pertumbuhan penjualan + 148%
- 12 bulan terakhir Arus cash -9% persentase dari market cap
- 12 bulan terakhir Kapital (hutang & ekuitas) -12% persentase dari market cap
- Posisi saat ini kas - liabilitas -18% persentase dari market cap
Penjualan tumbuh 40%
5 kuartal terakhir pertumbuhan, penjualan rupiah miliar
40% -5% 3% 81% 40%
1,802 ; 1,710 ; 1,764 ;
- Penjualan tumbuh 40% di kuartal ketiga sampai rupiah 4,470 miliar prediksi kami di banding dengan aktual + 4%
- Kemudian pertumbuhan rata rata menjadi 30% ‘.
- Kami memprediksikan pertumbuhan rata rata 1% dalam waktu 12 bulan sehingga penjualan akan menjadi rupiah 4,695 miliar di kuartal ketiga 2023.