MDKA cashflow still negative
MDKA Current 3,940 Target 2,627 -33%
Sep 12, 2022
1 minute read
Sales leapt 77%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
91% 42% -5% 3% 77%
89 126 120 123 218
Costs down profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-44% -58% -60% -67% -62%
10 15 15 65 35
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
9 76 33 68 95
21 -115 -146 -414 -217
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
278 203 185 122 411
455 413 499 873 1,430
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity million dollars
-565 -497 -593 -876 -1,295
-3 74 -88 -283 -149
-5 -5 -9 -1 -270
Sep 12, 2022
1 minute read
- MDKA last 12 months sales growth 7X average + 146%
- MDKA last 12 months cash flow -9% of market cap
- MDKA last 12 months Capital -11% of market cap
- MDKA latest net cash -16% of market cap
Sales leapt 77%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
91% 42% -5% 3% 77%
89 126 120 123 218
- Sales leapt 77% in the second quarter to 218 million dollars ; our forecasts v sales is + 1% now.
- This brings the average to 29% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 231 million dollars in the second quarter 2023.
Costs down profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-44% -58% -60% -67% -62%
10 15 15 65 35
- The cash cost ratio went from -67% to -62% profit from 65 to 35 million dollars in the second quarter from non cash costs.
- The average cost ratio is at -62% now.
- We use the average -62% cost ratio to predict a 57 million dollars profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
9 76 33 68 95
21 -115 -146 -414 -217
- Free cashflow went less negative from -347 to -121 million dollars in the second quarter with -217 million dollars investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -155 million dollars now.
- We assume -115 million dollars investment cashflow which with higher sales gives -37 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
278 203 185 122 411
455 413 499 873 1,430
- Cash increased 122 to 411 million dollars in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 873 to 1,430 million dollars so net cash was down -751 to -1,019 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 million dollars equity payout + 146 million dollars liabilities net cash will be -1,132 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity million dollars
-565 -497 -593 -876 -1,295
-3 74 -88 -283 -149
-5 -5 -9 -1 -270
- MDKA cumulative capital worsened -876 to -1,295 million dollars with -149 & -270 million dollars from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be -1,441 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 6,549 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 1.80 X assets with a 9 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 312 million dollars (vs 271 million dollars the last 12m) which means a 21 X valuation. A 14 X valuation gives a -33% lower target price 2,627 rupiah.
