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MCOL sharp with an 18% yield forecast
MCOL Current 6,775 Target 11,384 + 68%
Jul 8, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -28%
Last 5 quarters
0% -18% 243% 38% -28%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-85% -40% -72% -42% -81%
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters million dollars
10, 28, 48, 159, 29
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters million dollars
0, 0, -17, 54, 107
Capital paid improved , a 68% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
17, -2, 12, 84, 86
Jul 8, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -28%
Last 5 quarters
0% -18% 243% 38% -28%
- Sales declined -28% in the first quarter to 226 million dollars 179% above a year ago
- This brings the average to 59% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 261 million dollars in the first quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-85% -40% -72% -42% -81%
- The cash cost ratio went from -42% to -81% profit from 144 to 93 million dollars in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -59% now.
- We use the average -59% cost ratio to predict a 97 million dollars profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters million dollars
10, 28, 48, 159, 29
- Free cashflow went from 159 to 29 million dollars in the first quarter with -14 million dollars investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 66 million dollars now.
- We assume the same -14 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 91 million dollars Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters million dollars
0, 0, -17, 54, 107
- Cash increased 228 to 256 million dollars in the first quarter.
- Liabilities declined 174 to 149 million dollars so net cash improved 54 to 107 million dollars.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -301 million dollars equity payout -28 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be 155 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved , a 68% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
17, -2, 12, 84, 86
- MCOL 5 quarter capital paid improved 84 to 86 million dollars in the first quarter with + 2 million dollars liabilities 0 million dollars equity & will be 414 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 1,661 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 2.40 X assets with a 1 years payback & an 18% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 349 million dollars which means a 5 X valuation. A 8 X valuation gives a 68% higher target price 11,384 rupiah.
