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MCOL sharp with an 18% yield forecast

MCOL Current 6,775 Target 11,384 + 68%

Jul 8, 2022
1 minute read

Sales declined -28%
Last 5 quarters
0% -18% 243% 38% -28%
  • Sales declined -28% in the first quarter to 226 million dollars 179% above a year ago
  • This brings the average to 59% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 261 million dollars in the first quarter 2023.

Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-85% -40% -72% -42% -81%
  • The cash cost ratio went from -42% to -81% profit from 144 to 93 million dollars in the first quarter.
  • The average cost ratio is at -59% now.
  • We use the average -59% cost ratio to predict a 97 million dollars profit in the first quarter 2023.

Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters million dollars
10, 28, 48, 159, 29
  • Free cashflow went from 159 to 29 million dollars in the first quarter with -14 million dollars investment spending.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 66 million dollars now.
  • We assume the same -14 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 91 million dollars Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.

Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters million dollars
0, 0, -17, 54, 107
  • Cash increased 228 to 256 million dollars in the first quarter.
  • Liabilities declined 174 to 149 million dollars so net cash improved 54 to 107 million dollars.
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -301 million dollars equity payout -28 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be 155 million dollars in 12 months time.

Capital paid improved , a 68% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
17, -2, 12, 84, 86
  • MCOL 5 quarter capital paid improved 84 to 86 million dollars in the first quarter with + 2 million dollars liabilities 0 million dollars equity & will be 414 million dollars in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 1,661 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 2.40 X assets with a 1 years payback & an 18% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 349 million dollars which means a 5 X valuation. A 8 X valuation gives a 68% higher target price 11,384 rupiah.
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