MCOL sales grew +26%

Current 6,375 Target 8,731 + 37%

Mar 27, 2023
1 minute read

A quick glance
  • Last 12 months sales growth + 11% vs 2019 286%
  • Last 12 months cash flow + 17% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) + 14% of market cap
  • Latest cash minus liabilities 7% of market cap
  • Latest market value to assets 1.71 X. Last 12 months cashflow to assets 34%

Sales grew 26%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly sales
-16% -27% 19% 1% 26%
4,511 ; 3,281 ; 3,900 ; 3,958 ; 4,993 billion rupiah
  • Sales grew 26% in the fourth quarter to 4,993 billion rupiah .
  • This brings the quarterly average to 5% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 4,892 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 2023.

Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash profit margin, net profit
48% 46% 41% 32% 35%
2,041 ; 1,332 ; 1,437 ; 1,084 ; 1,539 billion rupiah
  • The cash profit margin went from 32% to 35% net profit from 1,084 to 1,539 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
  • The average margin is at 38% now.
  • We use a 38% cash profit margin to predict a 1,701 billion rupiah net profit in the fourth quarter 2023.

Cashflow slightly lower positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
2,669 ; 616 ; 1,671 ; 1,068 ; 1,696 billion rupiah
-614 ; -201 ; 44 ; -126 ; -832 billion rupiah
  • Free cashflow went from 942 to 864 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with -832 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 984 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -279 billion rupiah investment spending which with lower sales gives 1,293 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.

Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
2,969 ; 3,668 ; 3,768 ; 4,853 ; 4,145 billion rupiah
2,484 ; 2,135 ; 2,522 ; 3,078 ; 2,638 billion rupiah
  • Cash declined 4,853 to 4,145 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
  • Liabilities declined 3,078 to 2,638 billion rupiah so net cash was down 1,775 to 1,507 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -3,347 billion rupiah equity payout -489 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be 3,334 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
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More capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
1,028 ; 29 ; 15 ; 126 ; 0 billion rupiah
0 ; 0 ; 1,671 ; 0 ; 1,256 billion rupiah
  • MCOL.jk paid 1,256 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 0 billion rupiah liabilities 1,256 billion rupiah equity, will pay 3,836 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market cap of 22,667 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.71 X assets with a 34% cashflow to assets 15% dividend yield forecast.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 5,174 billion rupiah which means a 4 X valuation. A 6 X valuation gives a 37% higher target price 8,731 rupiah.