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Picture
MCD Cashflow more positive

Current 264 Target 276 + 4%

1/5/2023
1 minute read


  • Last 12 months sales growth -5%
  • Last 12 months cash flow + 3% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) + 3% of market cap
  • Latest cash minus liabilities -27% of market cap
​
Sales grew 3%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly ales
5% -3% -6% 1% 3%
6,201 ; 6,009 ; 5,666 ; 5,718 ; 5,872 million dollars
  • Sales grew 3% in the third quarter to 5,872 million dollars ; our total forecasts v actual sales are -0% now.
  • This brings the average to -1% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 5,985 million dollars in the third quarter 2023.

Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
39% 35% 29% 31% 38%
2,150 ; 1,639 ; 1,104 ; 1,188 ; 1,982 million dollars
  • The cash margin went from 31% to 38% profit from 1,188 to 1,982 million dollars in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at 33% now.
  • We use a 33% cash margin to predict a 1,523 million dollars profit in the third quarter 2023.

Cashflow more positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
2,618 ; 2,667 ; 2,133 ; 618 ; 2,434 million dollars
-385 ; -1,122 ; -555 ; -319 ; -733 million dollars
  • Free cashflow went from 299 to 1,701 million dollars in the third quarter with -733 million dollars investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 1,281 million dollars now.
  • We assume -536 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 1,402 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
​
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
4,306 ; 4,709 ; 2,336 ; 1,872 ; 2,828 million dollars
58,402 ; 58,207 ; 56,869 ; 55,618 ; 55,068 million dollars
  • Cash increased 1,872 to 2,828 million dollars in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities declined 55,618 to 55,068 million dollars so net cash was up -53,746 to -52,240 million dollars .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -1,758 million dollars equity payout -3,848 million dollars liabilities net cash will be -48,392 million dollars in 12 months time.
​
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
-1 ; -660 ; 1,345 ; -1,334 ; -1,194 million dollars
909 ; 1,799 ; 2,486 ; 2,021 ; 1,741 million dollars
  • MCD paid 546 million dollars in the third quarter -1,194 million dollars liabilities 1,741 million dollars equity, will pay 5,607 million dollars this next 12 months.
  • At the current market cap of 193,602 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 3.97 X assets with a 8 years payback & a 1% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 5,607 million dollars which means a 35 X valuation. A 36 X valuation gives a 4% higher target price 276 rupiah.
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