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MBTO sales jump

MBTO.jk Current 139 Target 166 + 20%

11/24/2022
1 minute read


  • Last 12 months sales growth + 123%
  • Last 12 months cash flow -11% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital + 0% of market cap
  • Latest net cash -219% of market cap

Sales grew 112%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
38% 13% 16% -20% 112%
56 64 74 59 125
  • Sales grew 112% in the third quarter to 125 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 3% now.
  • This brings the average to 30% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 134 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
​
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters margin, profit billion rupiah
-9% -186% 2% -10% 5%
-17 -82 -4 -14 1
  • The cash margin went from -10% to 5% profit from -14 to 1 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at -47% now.
  • We use a 5% cash margin to predict a 0 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.

Cashflow positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
-91 -39 -12 -11 9
145 36 1 -0 0
  • Free cashflow went from -12 to 9 billion rupiah in the third quarter with 0 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at -4 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume 0 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 7 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
​
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
27 3 3 3 11
474 274 275 308 337
  • Cash increased 3 to 11 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 308 to 337 billion rupiah so net cash was down -305 to -326 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -27 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -299 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
30 22 -11 -12 1
0 0 0 0 0
  • MBTO.jk paid 1 billion rupiah in the third quarter 1 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity & will pay 27 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market value of 149 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.20 X assets with a 28 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 27 billion rupiah which means a 5 X valuation. A 6.5 X valuation gives a 20% higher target price 166 rupiah.
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