MBTO back to earth
MBTO Current 114 Target 111 -3%
2 Aug 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -20%
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
41, 56, 64, 74, 59
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-166% -124% -137% -100% -121%
Cashflow negative, last 12 months + 28% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
4 55 -0 -9 -11
Balance sheet net cash dowm, last 12 months change + 101% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-428 -447 -271 -272 -305
Capital worsened, last 12 months + 28% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah , a -3% lower target price
-120 -89 -65 -75 -86
2 Aug 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -20%
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
41, 56, 64, 74, 59
- Sales declined -20% in the second quarter to 59 billion rupiah -31% below our 85 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 12% growth.
- We predict average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 74 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-166% -124% -137% -100% -121%
- The cash cost ratio went from -100% to -121% profit from -4 to -14 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -121% now.
- We use an average -99% cost ratio to predict a 1 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative, last 12 months + 28% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
4 55 -0 -9 -11
- Free cashflow went from -9 to -11 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -0 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 9 billion rupiah from the asset sale.
- We assume the same -0 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 1 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Balance sheet net cash dowm, last 12 months change + 101% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-428 -447 -271 -272 -305
- Cash increased 3 to 3 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 275 to 308 billion rupiah so net cash dowm -272 to -305 billion rupiah
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -4 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -301 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital worsened, last 12 months + 28% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah , a -3% lower target price
-120 -89 -65 -75 -86
- MBTO 30 quarter capital worsened -75 to -86 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -12 billion rupiah from liabilities 0 billion rupiah from equity but will be -82 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 122 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.17 X assets with a 190 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 4 billion rupiah which means a 32 X valuation. A 31 X valuation gives a -3% lower target price 111 rupiah.
