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MBTO less dull as sales continue to rise
MBTO Current 115 Target 127 + 11%
15 May 2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped 16%
Last 5 quarters
-27% -18% 38% 13% 16%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-144% -166% -124% -137% -100%
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-4, 4, 55, -0, -9
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-399 -428 -447 -271 -272
Capital raised worsened a 11% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-124 -120 -89 -65 -75
15 May 2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped 16%
Last 5 quarters
-27% -18% 38% 13% 16%
- Sales jumped 16% in the first quarter to 74 billion rupiah 15% above our 65 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 12% growth.
- We predict average growth of 9% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 101 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-144% -166% -124% -137% -100%
- The cash cost ratio went from -137% to -100% profit from -82 to -4 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -132% now.
- We use a lower -98% cost ratio to predict a -3 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-4, 4, 55, -0, -9
- Free cashflow went more negative from -0 to -9 billion rupiah in the first quarter with 1 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 12 billion rupiah now.
- We assume lower 0 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives positive 2 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-399 -428 -447 -271 -272
- Cash was flat at 3 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 274 to 275 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -271 to -272 billion rupiah
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -10 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -262 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital raised worsened a 11% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-124 -120 -89 -65 -75
- MBTO 29 quarter capital raised worsened -65 to -75 billion rupiah in the first quarter with 11 billion rupiah new liabilities but will be -65 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 123 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.18 X assets with a 74 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 10 billion rupiah which means an 13 X valuation. A 13 X valuation gives a 11% higher target price 127 rupiah.