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MBSS sharp with an 8% yield forecast
MBSS Current 955 Target 1,462 + 53%
Jul 15, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 40%
Last 5 quarters
20% 12% -4% -18% 40%
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters
-73% -73% -51% -59% -67%
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters million dollars
4.0, 4.6, 7.0, -1.3, 1.3
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters million dollars
5, 16, 18, 17, 20
Capital paid worsened , a 53% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
90.6, 93.0, 108.8, 108.8, 95.3
Jul 15, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 40%
Last 5 quarters
20% 12% -4% -18% 40%
- Sales grew 40% in the second quarter to 22.5 million dollars 27% above our 17.7 million dollars forecast.
- This brings the average to 8% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 24.9 million dollars in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters
-73% -73% -51% -59% -67%
- The cash cost ratio went from -59% to -67% profit from 0.7 to 5.0 million dollars in the second quarter on non cash costs.
- The average cost ratio is at -63% now.
- We use the average -63% cost ratio to predict a 4.1 million dollars profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters million dollars
4.0, 4.6, 7.0, -1.3, 1.3
- Free cashflow went positive again from -1.3 to 1.3 million dollars in the second quarter with high -6.1 million dollars investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 2.9 million dollars now.
- We assume lower -4.5 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 4.9 million dollars Cashflow in the second quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters million dollars
5, 16, 18, 17, 20
- Cash increased 26 to 40 million dollars in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 9 to 21 million dollars so net cash improved 17 to 20 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -8.8 million dollars equity payout -3.9 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be 28 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital paid worsened , a 53% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
90.6, 93.0, 108.8, 108.8, 95.3
- MBSS 30 quarter capital paid worsened 108.8 to 95.3 million dollars in the second quarter with -13.5 million dollars from liabilities 0.0 million dollars from equity but will be 121 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 115 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 0.6 X assets with a 9 years payback & an 8% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 18 million dollars which means a 7 X valuation. A 10 X valuation gives a 53% higher target price 1,462 rupiah.
