MBSS 20% yield forecast
MBSS Current 1,085 Target 2,362 + 118%
October 21, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 10%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
12% -4% -18% 40% 10%
20.4 19.6 16.1 22.5 24.8
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-54% -34% -63% -55% -54%
4.2 7.5 0.7 5.0 6.3
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
6.1 8.8 6.7 7.0 14.9
-1.6 -2.1 -8.0 -6.1 5.1
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
36 27 26 40 59
20 9 9 21 26
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity million dollars
93.0 108.8 108.8 95.3 96.4
2.4 15.8 0.0 -13.5 1.1
0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
October 21, 2022
1 minute read
- MBSS last 12 months sales growth + 22%
- MBSS last 12 months cash flow + 20% of market cap
- MBSS last 12 months Capital + 3% of market cap
- MBSS latest net cash + 25% of market cap
Sales grew 10%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
12% -4% -18% 40% 10%
20.4 19.6 16.1 22.5 24.8
- Sales grew 10% in the third quarter to 24.8 million dollars ; our forecasts v sales is + 6% now.
- This brings the average to 7% growth.
- We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 25.5 million dollars in the third quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-54% -34% -63% -55% -54%
4.2 7.5 0.7 5.0 6.3
- The cash cost ratio went from -55% to -54% profit from 5.0 to 6.3 million dollars in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -51% now.
- We use the latest -54% cost ratio to predict a 6.6 million dollars profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
6.1 8.8 6.7 7.0 14.9
-1.6 -2.1 -8.0 -6.1 5.1
- Free cashflow went from 0.9 to 20.0 million dollars in the third quarter with 5.1 million dollars investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 6.6 million dollars now.
- We assume -2.8 million dollars investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 8.9 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
36 27 26 40 59
20 9 9 21 26
- Cash increased 40 to 59 million dollars in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 21 to 26 million dollars so net cash was up 20 to 33 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & -26.1 million dollars equity -4.8 million dollars liabilities net cash will be 43 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity million dollars
93.0 108.8 108.8 95.3 96.4
2.4 15.8 0.0 -13.5 1.1
0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
- MBSS cumulative capital improved 95.3 to 96.4 million dollars with + 1.1 & 0.0 million dollars from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be 127 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 132 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 0.7 X assets with a 4 years payback & a 20% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 36 million dollars (vs 27 million dollars the last 12m) which means a 4 X valuation. A 8 X valuation gives a 118% higher target price 2,362 rupiah.
