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MBAP, sharp with a 24% yield forecast
MBAP Current 6,500 Target 18,117+ 180%
Jun 26, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -8%
Last 5 quarters
56% 5% 0% 67% -8%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-73% -75% -66% -51% -55%
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters million dollars
21, 17, 18, 4, 46
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters million dollars
19, 30, 19, 6, 44
Capital paid flat , a 180% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
51, 57, 58, 94, 94
Jun 26, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -8%
Last 5 quarters
56% 5% 0% 67% -8%
- Sales declined seasonally -8% in the first quarter to 104 million dollars above our 0 million dollars forecast.
- This brings the average to 16% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 118 million dollars in the first quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-73% -75% -66% -51% -55%
- The cash cost ratio went from -51% to -55% profit from 52 to 45 million dollars in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -62% now.
- We use -62% cost ratio to predict a 43 million dollars profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters million dollars
21, 17, 18, 4, 46
- Free cashflow went from 4 to 46 million dollars in the first quarter with -1 million dollars investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 21 million dollars now.
- We assume higher -3 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 42 million dollars Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters million dollars
19, 30, 19, 6, 44
- Cash increased 64 to 109 million dollars in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 58 to 65 million dollars so net cash improved 6 to 44 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -138 million dollars equity payout -12 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be 66 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital paid flat , a 180% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
51, 57, 58, 94, 94
- MBAP 19 quarter capital paid was flat at 94 million dollars in the first quarter but will be 244 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 570 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 1.8 X assets with a 1 years payback & a 24% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 159 million dollars which means a 4 X valuation. A 10 X valuation gives a 180% higher target price 18,117 rupiah.
