MASA cashflow jumps
MASA Current 2,970 Target 3,441 + 16%
Sep 12, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -17%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
-19% 3% 88% -13% -17%
89 92 172 150 125
Costs down profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-47% -110% -82% -76% -74%
39 -17 23 29 26
Cashflow jumped
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
7 13 33 11 23
-1 -4 -30 -6 -4
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
3 2 8 7 4
211 212 258 268 223
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity million dollars
80 89 89 87 117
6 10 -0 -1 30
0 0 0 0 0
Sep 12, 2022
1 minute read
- MASA last 12 months sales growth 2X average + 40%
- MASA last 12 months cash flow + 2% of market cap
- MASA last 12 months Capital + 2% of market cap
- MASA latest net cash -12% of market cap
Sales declined seasonally -17%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
-19% 3% 88% -13% -17%
89 92 172 150 125
- Sales declined seasonally -17% in the second quarter to 125 million dollars ; our forecasts v sales is + 2% now.
- This brings the average to 15% growth.
- We predict average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 150 million dollars in the second quarter 2023.
Costs down profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-47% -110% -82% -76% -74%
39 -17 23 29 26
- The cash cost ratio went from -76% to -74% profit from 29 to 26 million dollars in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -85% now.
- We use -74% cost ratio to predict a 32 million dollars profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow jumped
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
7 13 33 11 23
-1 -4 -30 -6 -4
- Free cashflow jumped from 5 to 19 million dollars in the second quarter with -4 million dollars investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 9 million dollars now.
- We assume -4 million dollars investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 34 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
3 2 8 7 4
211 212 258 268 223
- Cash declined 7 to 4 million dollars in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 268 to 223 million dollars so net cash was up -261 to -219 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -37 million dollars equity payout -41 million dollars liabilities net cash will be -120 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity million dollars
80 89 89 87 117
6 10 -0 -1 30
0 0 0 0 0
- MASA cumulative capital improved 87 to 117 million dollars with + 30 & 0 million dollars from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be 195 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 1,881 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 3.13 X assets with a 4 years payback & a 2% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 136 million dollars (vs 37 million dollars the last 12m) which means a 14 X valuation. A 16 X valuation gives a 16% higher target price 3,441 rupiah.
