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MASA looking a bit sharper as sales soar, but cashflow lower
MASA Current 4,150 Target 4,741 +14%
Mar 24, 2022
1 minute read
Sales soared 88%
Last 5 quarters
6% 18% -19% 3% 88%
Costs down profit plus
Last 5 quarters
-57% -71% -47% -110% -82%
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters million dollars
14, 7, 7, 9, 5
Balance sheet higher leverage
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-218 -220 -208 -210 -271
Capital paid worsened, a 14% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
68, 74, 80, 89, 89
Mar 24, 2022
1 minute read
Sales soared 88%
Last 5 quarters
6% 18% -19% 3% 88%
- Sales soared 88% in the fourth quarter to 172 million dollars 71% above our 101 million dollars forecast.
- This brings the average to 22% growth.
- We predict average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 213 million dollars in the fourth quarter 2022.
Costs down profit plus
Last 5 quarters
-57% -71% -47% -110% -82%
- The cash cost ratio went from -110% to -82% profit from -17 to 23 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -78% now.
- We use the average -78% cost ratio to predict a 40 million dollars profit in the fourth quarter 2022.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters million dollars
14, 7, 7, 9, 5
- Free cashflow went from 9 to 5 million dollars in the fourth quarter with higher -30 million dollars investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 7 million dollars now.
- We assume lower -17 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 31 million dollars Cashflow in the fourth quarter 2022.
Balance sheet higher leverage
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-218 -220 -208 -210 -271
- Cash increased 2 to 8 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
- Liabilities increased 212 to 278 million dollars so net cash worsened -210 to -271 million dollars
- With our forecast cashflow & a -15 million dollars equity payout -48 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -153 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital paid worsened, a 14% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
68, 74, 80, 89, 89
- MASA 16 quarters capital paid was flat at 89 million dollars in the fourth quarter but will be 152 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 2,722 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 4.37 X assets with a 4 years payback & a 1% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 124 million dollars which means an 22 X valuation. A 25 X valuation gives a 14% higher target price of 4,741 rupiah.