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MASA strong cashflow, capital

MASA.jk Current 2,300 Target 2,507 + 9%

12/9/2022
1 minute read

  • Last 12 months sales growth + 25%
  • Last 12 months cash flow + 3% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital + 3% of market cap
  • Latest net cash -13% of market cap

Sales declined -10%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
2% 87% -13% -15% -10%
1,314 ; 2,461 ; 2,153 ; 1,828 ; 1,637
  • Sales declined -10% in the third quarter to 1,637 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is 1% now.
  • This brings the average to 12% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,736 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
​
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
-10% 18% 24% 26% 18%
-248 ; 333 ; 417 ; 379 ; 170
  • The cash margin went from 26% to 18% profit from 379 to 170 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at 22% now.
  • We use a 22% cash margin to predict a 266 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
​
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
186 ; 472 ; 162 ; 343 ; 384
-59 ; -423 ; -89 ; -59 ; -81
  • Free cashflow went from 284 to 303 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -81 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 177 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -81 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 288 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
​
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
29 ; 107 ; 106 ; 55 ; 31
3,038 ; 3,686 ; 3,840 ; 3,268 ; 2,843
  • Cash declined 55 to 31 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities declined 3,268 to 2,843 billion rupiah so net cash was up -3,213 to -2,811 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -518 billion rupiah equity payout -527 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -2,178 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
138 ; -5 ; -20 ; 433 ; 323
0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0
  • MASA.jk paid 323 billion rupiah in the third quarter 323 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity, will pay 1,046 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market value of 21,121 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 2.57 X assets with a 7 years payback & a 2% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 1,151 billion rupiah which means a 18 X valuation. A 20 X valuation gives a 9% higher target price 2,507 rupiah.
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