MARK sales slump
MARK Current 625 Target 385 -38%
11/11/22
1 minute read
Sales slumped -60%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
42% 0% -0% -26% -60%
360 361 361 267 108
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-65% -66% -63% -67% -82%
121 116 125 80 13
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating, investment Cashflow billion rupiah
98 150 -27 118 88
-35 -49 -13 -8 -4
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
52 104 58 42 20
419 335 309 368 229
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
17 46 52 179 284
0 28 6 -63 105
0 0 0 190 0
11/11/22
1 minute read
- MARK last 12 months sales growth -70%
- MARK last 12 months cash flow + 11% of market cap
- MARK last 12 months Capital + 11% of market cap
- MARK latest net cash -9% of market cap
Sales slumped -60%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
42% 0% -0% -26% -60%
360 361 361 267 108
- Sales slumped -60% in the third quarter to 108 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -2% now.
- This brings the average to -21% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 117 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-65% -66% -63% -67% -82%
121 116 125 80 13
- The cash cost ratio went from -67% to -82% profit from 80 to 13 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -70% now.
- We use a -70% cost ratio to predict a 28 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating, investment Cashflow billion rupiah
98 150 -27 118 88
-35 -49 -13 -8 -4
- Free cashflow went from 110 to 84 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -4 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 64 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -11 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 24 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
52 104 58 42 20
419 335 309 368 229
- Cash declined 42 to 20 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 368 to 229 billion rupiah so net cash was up -326 to -209 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -48 billion rupiah equity payout -50 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -276 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
17 46 52 179 284
0 28 6 -63 105
0 0 0 190 0
- MARK cumulative capital improved 179 to 284 billion rupiah with + 105 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be 276 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 2,375 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 2.1 X assets with a 11 years payback & a 2% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 98 billion rupiah which means a 24 X valuation. A 15 X valuation gives a -38% lower target price 385 rupiah.
