MARK lower sales, margins
MARK Current 940 Target 1,040 + 11%
Aug 1, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -26%
Last 5 quarters
254 360 361 361 267
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-64% -65% -66% -63% -67%
Cashflow last 12 months + 7% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-9 69 104 -39 111
Balance sheet change in net cash last 12 months + 3% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-423 -367 -231 -251 -326
Capital last 12 months + 5% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
17 17 46 52 179
Aug 1, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -26%
Last 5 quarters
254 360 361 361 267
- Sales declined -26% in the second quarter to 267 billion rupiah -22% below our 343 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 4% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 289 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-64% -65% -66% -63% -67%
- The cash cost ratio went from -63% to -67% profit from 125 to 80 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -65% now.
- We use the latest -67% cost ratio to predict a 87 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow last 12 months + 7% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-9 69 104 -39 111
- Free cashflow went from -39 to 111 billion rupiah in the second quarter with low -8 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 61 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -11 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 82 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Balance sheet change in net cash last 12 months + 3% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-423 -367 -231 -251 -326
- Cash declined 58 to 42 billion rupiah in the 0 quarter.
- Liabilities increased 309 to 368 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -251 to -326 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -147 billion rupiah equity payout -68 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -144 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital last 12 months + 5% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
17 17 46 52 179
- MARK 26 quarter capital improved 52 to 179 billion rupiah in the 0 quarter with -63 billion rupiah from liabilities + 190 billion rupiah from equity & will be 394 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 3,572 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 2.8 X assets with a 3 years payback & a 4% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 329 billion rupiah which means an 11 X valuation. A 12 X valuation gives a 11% higher target price 1,040 rupiah.
