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MAR, looking less sharp as valuation is rather expensive
​Current 175 Target 158 -10%

WATCH THE VIDEO
February 21 2022
1 minute read
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Sales grew 13%
Last 5 quarters
-4%, 7%, 36%, 25%, 13%
  • Sales grew 13% in the fourth quarter to 4,446 million dollars & are up 105% from a year ago.
  • This brings the quarterly average to 20% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 5,435 million dollars in the fourth quarter of 2022.
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Costs up (profit up on lower non cash costs )
Last 5 quarters
-92%, -98%, -94%, -89%, -91%
  • The cash cost ratio went from -89% to -91% profit from 220 to 468 million dollars in the fourth quarter on lower non cash costs.
  • The average cost ratio is at -93% now.
  • We use a lower -89% cost ratio to predict a 598 million dollars profit in the fourth quarter of 2022.
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Cashflow lower on less positive working capital $m
Last 5 quarters
-22, -3, 59, 575, 363
  • Free cashflow went from 575 to 363 million dollars in the fourth quarter with -69 million dollars investment Cashflow & less positive working capital.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 249 million dollars now.
  • We assume lower -46 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives a 544 million dollars Cashflow in the fourth quarter of 2022.
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Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 5 quarters $bn
-23.3, -23.4, -23, -22.8, -22.7
  • ​Cash increased 797 to 1,421 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 23,588 to 24,119 million dollars so net cash improved -22,791 to -22,698 million dollars
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -638 million dollars equity payout -1,274 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -21,424 million dollars in 12 months time.
​
Capital paid worsened slightly, expensive, a -10% lower target price
Last 5 quarters $bn
4.9, 5.2, 5.2, 5.7, 5.4
  • MAR capital from the last 16 quarters worsened 5,676 to 5,378 million dollars in the third quarter with 304 liabilities -6 million dollars equity & will be 7,290 million dollars in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 57,080 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 2.2 X assets with a 13 years payback & a 1% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 1,912 million dollars which means an 30 X valuation. A 27 X valuation gives a -10% worsened target price of 158 dollars.
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