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MAR a bit dull as shares have run ahead of cashflow
MAR Current 139 Target 157 + 13%
Jul 8, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -6%
Last 5 quarters
7% 36% 25% 13% -6%
Costs down profit down
Last 5 quarters
-98% -94% -89% -91% -85%
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-2, 56, 610, 326, 375
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-23,493 -23,029 -22,791 -22,698 -22,424
Capital paid improved , a 13% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
5,165, 5,184, 5,676, 5,378, 6,107
Jul 8, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -6%
Last 5 quarters
7% 36% 25% 13% -6%
- Sales declined -6% in the first quarter to 4,199 million dollars -5% below our 4,402 million dollars forecast.
- This brings the average to 17% growth.
- We predict average growth of 7% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 5,448 million dollars in the first quarter 2023.
Costs down profit down
Last 5 quarters
-98% -94% -89% -91% -85%
- The cash cost ratio went from -91% to -85% profit from 468 to 377 million dollars in the first quarter with higher non cash costs.
- The average cost ratio is at -90% now.
- We use the average -90% cost ratio to predict a 304 million dollars profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-2, 56, 610, 326, 375
- Free cashflow went from 326 to 375 million dollars in the first quarter with -23 million dollars investment spend.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 342 million dollars now.
- We assume the same -23 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 532 million dollars Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-23,493 -23,029 -22,791 -22,698 -22,424
- Cash declined 1,421 to 1,042 million dollars in the first quarter.
- Liabilities declined 24,119 to 23,466 million dollars so net cash improved -22,698 to -22,424 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -171 million dollars equity payout -1,883 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -20,541 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved , a 13% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
5,165, 5,184, 5,676, 5,378, 6,107
- MAR 17 quarter capital paid improved 5,378 to 6,107 million dollars in the first quarter with + 651 million dollars liabilities + 78 million dollars equity & will be 8,161 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 45,390 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 1.9 X assets with a 12 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 2,054 million dollars which means a 22 X valuation. A 25 X valuation gives a 13% higher target price 157 rupiah.
