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MAR a bit dull as shares have run ahead of cashflow

MAR Current 139 Target 157 + 13%

Jul 8, 2022
1 minute read

Sales declined -6%
Last 5 quarters
7% 36% 25% 13% -6%
  • Sales declined -6% in the first quarter to 4,199 million dollars -5% below our 4,402 million dollars forecast.
  • This brings the average to 17% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 7% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 5,448 million dollars in the first quarter 2023.

Costs down profit down
Last 5 quarters
-98% -94% -89% -91% -85%
  • The cash cost ratio went from -91% to -85% profit from 468 to 377 million dollars in the first quarter with higher non cash costs.
  • The average cost ratio is at -90% now.
  • We use the average -90% cost ratio to predict a 304 million dollars profit in the first quarter 2023.

Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-2, 56, 610, 326, 375
  • Free cashflow went from 326 to 375 million dollars in the first quarter with -23 million dollars investment spend.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 342 million dollars now.
  • We assume the same -23 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 532 million dollars Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.

Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-23,493 -23,029 -22,791 -22,698 -22,424
  • Cash declined 1,421 to 1,042 million dollars in the first quarter.
  • Liabilities declined 24,119 to 23,466 million dollars so net cash improved -22,698 to -22,424 million dollars .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -171 million dollars equity payout -1,883 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -20,541 million dollars in 12 months time.​
​
Capital paid improved , a 13% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
5,165, 5,184, 5,676, 5,378, 6,107
  • MAR 17 quarter capital paid improved 5,378 to 6,107 million dollars in the first quarter with + 651 million dollars liabilities + 78 million dollars equity & will be 8,161 million dollars in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 45,390 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 1.9 X assets with a 12 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 2,054 million dollars which means a 22 X valuation. A 25 X valuation gives a 13% higher target price 157 rupiah.
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