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MAR, looking less sharp as valuation is rather expensive
Current 175 Target 158 -10%
February 21 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 13%
Last 5 quarters
-4%, 7%, 36%, 25%, 13%
Costs up (profit up on lower non cash costs )
Last 5 quarters
-92%, -98%, -94%, -89%, -91%
Cashflow lower on less positive working capital $m
Last 5 quarters
-22, -3, 59, 575, 363
Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 5 quarters $bn
-23.3, -23.4, -23, -22.8, -22.7
Capital paid worsened slightly, expensive, a -10% lower target price
Last 5 quarters $bn
4.9, 5.2, 5.2, 5.7, 5.4
1 minute read
Sales grew 13%
Last 5 quarters
-4%, 7%, 36%, 25%, 13%
- Sales grew 13% in the fourth quarter to 4,446 million dollars & are up 105% from a year ago.
- This brings the quarterly average to 20% growth.
- We predict average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 5,435 million dollars in the fourth quarter of 2022.
Costs up (profit up on lower non cash costs )
Last 5 quarters
-92%, -98%, -94%, -89%, -91%
- The cash cost ratio went from -89% to -91% profit from 220 to 468 million dollars in the fourth quarter on lower non cash costs.
- The average cost ratio is at -93% now.
- We use a lower -89% cost ratio to predict a 598 million dollars profit in the fourth quarter of 2022.
Cashflow lower on less positive working capital $m
Last 5 quarters
-22, -3, 59, 575, 363
- Free cashflow went from 575 to 363 million dollars in the fourth quarter with -69 million dollars investment Cashflow & less positive working capital.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 249 million dollars now.
- We assume lower -46 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives a 544 million dollars Cashflow in the fourth quarter of 2022.
Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 5 quarters $bn
-23.3, -23.4, -23, -22.8, -22.7
- Cash increased 797 to 1,421 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
- Liabilities increased 23,588 to 24,119 million dollars so net cash improved -22,791 to -22,698 million dollars
- With our forecast cashflow & a -638 million dollars equity payout -1,274 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -21,424 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital paid worsened slightly, expensive, a -10% lower target price
Last 5 quarters $bn
4.9, 5.2, 5.2, 5.7, 5.4
- MAR capital from the last 16 quarters worsened 5,676 to 5,378 million dollars in the third quarter with 304 liabilities -6 million dollars equity & will be 7,290 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 57,080 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 2.2 X assets with a 13 years payback & a 1% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 1,912 million dollars which means an 30 X valuation. A 27 X valuation gives a -10% worsened target price of 158 dollars.