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MAPI looking quite sharp as average cashflow rises to a record
MAPI Current 845 Target 1,173 + 39%
May 22, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -11%
Last 5 quarters
-8% 12% -39% 115% -11%
Costs down profit down
Last 5 quarters
-87% -83% -95% -82% -80%
Cashflow seasonally negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-489, 193, 155, 1,643, -217
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-8,893 -8,496 -8,324 -6,909 -7,149
Capital paid improved , a 39% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
1,040, 1,314, 1,466, 2,265, 2,358
May 22, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -11%
Last 5 quarters
-8% 12% -39% 115% -11%
- Sales declined seasonally -11% in the first quarter to 5,633 billion rupiah -1% below our 5,709 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 19% growth.
- We predict average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 6,609 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs down profit down
Last 5 quarters
-87% -83% -95% -82% -80%
- The cash cost ratio went from -82% to -80% profit from 605 to 577 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -85% now.
- We use the average -85% cost ratio to predict a 458 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow seasonally negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-489, 193, 155, 1,643, -217
- Free cashflow went seasonally negative from 1,643 to -217 billion rupiah in the first quarter with 157 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 443 billion rupiah now.
- We assume lower -50 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 730 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-8,893 -8,496 -8,324 -6,909 -7,149
- Cash declined 2,778 to 2,468 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities declined 9,687 to 9,617 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -6,909 to -7,149 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -575 billion rupiah equity payout -1,784 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -3,859 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved , a 39% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
1,040, 1,314, 1,466, 2,265, 2,358
- MAPI 29 quarter capital paid improved 2,265 to 2,358 billion rupiah in the first quarter with a -93 billion rupiah liabilities payment & will be 4,716 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 33,649 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 2.00 X assets with a 5 years payback & a 2% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 2,920 billion rupiah which means a 12 X valuation. A 16 X valuation gives a 39% higher target price 1,173 rupiah.