MAPI record average cashflow
MAPI Current 980 Target 1,487 + 52%
Aug 9, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 17%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
12% -39% 115% -11% 17%
4,822 2,946 6,344 5,633 6,615
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-83% -95% -82% -80% -82%
270 -403 605 577 622
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters operating & investment cashflow billion rupiah
289 233 1,826 -374 940
-95 -78 -183 157 -188
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
2,110 2,099 2,778 2,468 3,159
10,606 10,423 9,687 9,617 9,710
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
1,314 1,466 2,265 2,358 2,492
273 153 798 93 134
0 0 0 0 0
Aug 9, 2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months cash flow + 7% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 3% of market cap
- Latest net cash -19% of market cap
Sales grew 17%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
12% -39% 115% -11% 17%
4,822 2,946 6,344 5,633 6,615
- Sales grew 17% in the second quarter to 6,615 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is 3% now.
- This brings the average to 21% growth.
- We predict average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 8,205 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-83% -95% -82% -80% -82%
270 -403 605 577 622
- The cash cost ratio went from -80% to -82% profit from 577 to 622 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -85% now.
- We use the average -85% cost ratio to predict a 708 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters operating & investment cashflow billion rupiah
289 233 1,826 -374 940
-95 -78 -183 157 -188
- Free cashflow went from -217 to 752 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -188 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 583 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -188 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 642 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
2,110 2,099 2,778 2,468 3,159
10,606 10,423 9,687 9,617 9,710
- Cash increased 2,468 to 3,159 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 9,617 to 9,710 billion rupiah so net cash was up -7,149 to -6,551 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -1,805 billion rupiah equity payout -765 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -4,376 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
1,314 1,466 2,265 2,358 2,492
273 153 798 93 134
0 0 0 0 0
- MAPI cumulative capital improved 2,358 to 2,492 billion rupiah with + 134 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be 5,061 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 33,866 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 2.04 X assets with a 6 years payback & a 5% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 2,570 billion rupiah which means an 13 X valuation. A 20 X valuation gives a 52% higher target price 1,487 rupiah.
