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MAPB less sharp with more negative cashflow
MAPB Current 1,535 Target 1,887 + 23%
May 20, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -9%
Last 5 quarters
-6% 13% -24% 64% -9%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-80% -79% -84% -74% -85%
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
13, -49, -8, -7, -75
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,036, -1,058, -1,039, -971, -995
Capital raised flat , a 23% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-182 -154 -141 -154 -154
May 20, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -9%
Last 5 quarters
-6% 13% -24% 64% -9%
- Sales declined seasonally -9% in the first quarter to 710 billion rupiah -10% below our 787 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 11% growth.
- We predict average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 953 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-80% -79% -84% -74% -85%
- The cash cost ratio went from -74% to -85% profit from 70 to 42 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -81% now.
- We use the average the latest -81% cost ratio to predict a 121 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
13, -49, -8, -7, -75
- Free cashflow went more negative from -7 to -75 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -86 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -35 billion rupiah now.
- We assume lower -72 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 57 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,036, -1,058, -1,039, -971, -995
- Cash declined 256 to 169 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities declined 1,227 to 1,164 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -971 to -995 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -216 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -565 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital raised flat , a 23% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-182 -154 -141 -154 -154
- MAPB 23 quarter capital raised was flat at -154 billion rupiah in the first quarter but will be positive 62 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 3,332 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.35 X assets with a 10 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 205 billion rupiah which means a 16 X valuation. A 20 X valuation gives a 23% higher target price 1,887 rupiah.