MAPB finally cashflow positive
MAPB Current 1,520 Target 2,173 + 43%
Aug 8, 2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped 19%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
13% -24% 64% -9% 19%
624, 476, 779, 710, 847
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-79% -84% -74% -77% -82%
3 -54 70 42 34
Cashflow finally positive
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
-4 35 104 11 185
-46 -44 -111 -86 -117
Net cash up slightly
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
271 251 256 169 237
1,329 1,290 1,227 1,164 1,231
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-154 -141 -154 -154 -142
28 13 -13 0 12
0 0 0 0 0
Aug 8, 2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months cash flow -1% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 0% of market cap
- Latest net cash -30% of market cap
Sales jumped 19%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
13% -24% 64% -9% 19%
624, 476, 779, 710, 847
- Sales jumped 19% in the second quarter to 847 billion rupiah ; our total forecasts are now at +8% above the actual sales.
- This brings the average to 13% growth.
- We predict average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,065 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-79% -84% -74% -77% -82%
3 -54 70 42 34
- The cash cost ratio went from -77% to -82% profit from 42 to 34 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -79% now.
- We use the average -79% cost ratio to predict a 99 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow finally positive
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
-4 35 104 11 185
-46 -44 -111 -86 -117
- Free cashflow went finally positive from -75 to 67 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -117 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -6 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -90 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 62 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up slightly
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
271 251 256 169 237
1,329 1,290 1,227 1,164 1,231
- Cash increased 169 to 237 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 1,164 to 1,231 billion rupiah so net cash was up slightly -995 to -994 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -212 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -514 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-154 -141 -154 -154 -142
28 13 -13 0 12
0 0 0 0 0
- MAPB cumulative capital improved -154 to -142 billion rupiah with + 12 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be 69 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 3,300 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.48 X assets with a 8 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 248 billion rupiah which means a 13 X valuation. A 19 X valuation gives a 43% higher target price 2,173 rupiah.
