MAPB cashflow negative again
MAPB Current 1,705 Target 1,548 -9%
11/1/22
1 minute read
Sales grew 6%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-24% 64% -9% 19% 6%
476 779 710 847 901
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio,profit billion rupiah
-84% -74% -77% -82% -83%
-54 70 42 34 31
Cashflow negative again
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
35 104 11 185 104
-44 -111 -86 -117 -135
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
251 256 169 237 207
1,290 1,227 1,164 1,231 1,282
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-141 -154 -154 -142 -144
13 -13 0 12 -2
0 0 0 0 0
11/1/22
1 minute read
- Last 12 months Sales growth + 89%
- Last 12 months cash flow -1% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital -0% of market cap
- Latest net cash -29% of market cap
Sales grew 6%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-24% 64% -9% 19% 6%
476 779 710 847 901
- Sales grew 6% in the third quarter to 901 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is 7% now.
- This brings the average to 20% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 959 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio,profit billion rupiah
-84% -74% -77% -82% -83%
-54 70 42 34 31
- The cash cost ratio went from -82% to -83% profit from 34 to 31 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -79% now.
- We use a -79% cost ratio to predict a 72 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative again
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
35 104 11 185 104
-44 -111 -86 -117 -135
- Free cashflow went negative again from 67 to -31 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -135 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -12 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -112 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 22 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
251 256 169 237 207
1,290 1,227 1,164 1,231 1,282
- Cash declined 237 to 207 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 1,231 to 1,282 billion rupiah so net cash was down -994 to -1,075 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -88 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -725 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-141 -154 -154 -142 -144
13 -13 0 12 -2
0 0 0 0 0
- MAPB cumulative capital worsened -142 to -144 billion rupiah with -2 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter but will be -54 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 3,701 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.58 X assets with a 25 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 88 billion rupiah which means a 42 X valuation. A 38 X valuation gives a -9% lower target price 1,548 rupiah.
