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MAPA 3% yield forecast

MAPA Current 3,490 Target 4,068 + 17%

11/3/22
1 minute read

  • Last 12 months sales growth +172%
  • Last 12 months cash flow + 12% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital + 4% of market cap
  • Latest net cash -10% of market cap
​
Sales grew 7%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-42% 141% -15% 24% 7%
931 2,242 1,917 2,376 2,531
  • Sales grew 7% in the third quarter to 2,531 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is 4% now.
  • This brings the average to 39% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,787 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.

Costs flat profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-95% -82% -83% -81% -81%
-107 245 170 307 326
  • The cash cost ratio was flat at -81% profit increased from 307 to 326 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cost ratio is at -81% now.
  • We use a -83% cost ratio to predict a 301 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.

Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
48 556 194 509 196
-22 -58 -72 -64 -92
  • Free cashflow went from 444 to 104 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -92 investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 292 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -92 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 242 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
​
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
489 664 733 1,162 1,298
2,380 2,088 2,006 2,126 2,325
  • Cash increased 1,162 to 1,298 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 2,126 to 2,325 billion rupiah so net cash was down -964 to -1,027 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -337 billion rupiah equity payout -399 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be 50 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
659 984 1,035 1,051 1,019
-50 325 52 16 -25
0 -0 0 -0 -7
  • MAPA cumulative capital worsened 1,051 to 1,019 billion rupiah with -25 & -7 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be 1,755 billion rupiah in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 9,948 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.58 X assets with a 5 years payback & a 3% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 966 billion rupiah which means a 10 X valuation. A 12 X valuation gives a 17% higher target price 4,068 rupiah.
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