MAPA 3% yield forecast
MAPA Current 3,490 Target 4,068 + 17%
11/3/22
1 minute read
Sales grew 7%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-42% 141% -15% 24% 7%
931 2,242 1,917 2,376 2,531
Costs flat profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-95% -82% -83% -81% -81%
-107 245 170 307 326
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
48 556 194 509 196
-22 -58 -72 -64 -92
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
489 664 733 1,162 1,298
2,380 2,088 2,006 2,126 2,325
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
659 984 1,035 1,051 1,019
-50 325 52 16 -25
0 -0 0 -0 -7
11/3/22
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth +172%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 12% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 4% of market cap
- Latest net cash -10% of market cap
Sales grew 7%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-42% 141% -15% 24% 7%
931 2,242 1,917 2,376 2,531
- Sales grew 7% in the third quarter to 2,531 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is 4% now.
- This brings the average to 39% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,787 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs flat profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-95% -82% -83% -81% -81%
-107 245 170 307 326
- The cash cost ratio was flat at -81% profit increased from 307 to 326 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -81% now.
- We use a -83% cost ratio to predict a 301 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
48 556 194 509 196
-22 -58 -72 -64 -92
- Free cashflow went from 444 to 104 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -92 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 292 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -92 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 242 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
489 664 733 1,162 1,298
2,380 2,088 2,006 2,126 2,325
- Cash increased 1,162 to 1,298 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 2,126 to 2,325 billion rupiah so net cash was down -964 to -1,027 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -337 billion rupiah equity payout -399 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be 50 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
659 984 1,035 1,051 1,019
-50 325 52 16 -25
0 -0 0 -0 -7
- MAPA cumulative capital worsened 1,051 to 1,019 billion rupiah with -25 & -7 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be 1,755 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 9,948 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.58 X assets with a 5 years payback & a 3% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 966 billion rupiah which means a 10 X valuation. A 12 X valuation gives a 17% higher target price 4,068 rupiah.
