MAPA looking very profitable
MAPA Current 3,090 Target 5,318 + 72%
Aug 10, 2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped seasonally 24%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
25% -42% 141% -15% 24%
1,593 931 2,242 1,917 2,376
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-85% -95% -82% -83% -81%
92 -107 245 170 307
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
98 48 556 194 509
-33 -22 -58 -72 -64
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
413 489 664 733 1,162
2,292 2,380 2,088 2,006 2,126
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
709 659 984 1,035 1,051
89 -50 325 52 16
0 0 -0 0 -0
Aug 10, 2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months cash flow + 12% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 4% of market cap
- Latest net cash -11% of market cap
Sales jumped seasonally 24%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
25% -42% 141% -15% 24%
1,593 931 2,242 1,917 2,376
- Sales jumped seasonally 24% in the second quarter to 2,376 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 4% now.
- This brings the average to 27% growth.
- We predict average growth of 12% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 3,412 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-85% -95% -82% -83% -81%
92 -107 245 170 307
- The cash cost ratio went from -83% to -81% profit from 170 to 307 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -85% now.
- We use the average -85% cost ratio to predict a 352 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
98 48 556 194 509
-33 -22 -58 -72 -64
- Free cashflow went from 122 to 444 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -64 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 273 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -65 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 316 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
413 489 664 733 1,162
2,292 2,380 2,088 2,006 2,126
- Cash increased 733 to 1,162 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 2,006 to 2,126 billion rupiah so net cash was up -1,273 to -964 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -354 billion rupiah equity payout -374 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be 225 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
709 659 984 1,035 1,051
89 -50 325 52 16
0 0 -0 0 -0
- MAPA cumulative capital improved 1,035 to 1,051 billion rupiah with + 16 & -0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be 1,779 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 8,808 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.47 X assets with a 4 years payback & a 4% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 1,263 billion rupiah which means a 7 X valuation. A 12 X valuation gives a 72% higher target price 5,318 rupiah.
