MAPA looking sharp as sales soar
MAPA Current 3,090 Target 5,076 + 64%
Apr 18, 2022
1 minute read
Sales soared 141%
Last 5 quarters
62% -23% 25% -42% 141%
Costs down profit positive
Last 5 quarters
-82% -88% -85% -95% -82%
Cashflow up 15X
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
296, -65, 74, 35, 507
Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,794 -1,937 -1,879 -1,891 -1,424
Capital paid improved, a 64% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
532, 620, 709, 659, 984
Apr 18, 2022
1 minute read
Sales soared 141%
Last 5 quarters
62% -23% 25% -42% 141%
- Sales soared 141% in the fourth quarter to 2,242 billion rupiah 101% above our 1,117 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 25% growth.
- We predict average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,799 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 2022.
Costs down profit positive
Last 5 quarters
-82% -88% -85% -95% -82%
- The cash cost ratio went from -95% to -82% profit from -107 to 245 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter
- The average cost ratio is at -87% now.
- We use the average -87% cost ratio to predict a 197 billion rupiah profit in the fourth quarter 2022.
Cashflow up 15X
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
296, -65, 74, 35, 507
- Free cashflow went up 15X from 35 to 507 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with -58 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 138 billion rupiah now.
- We assume lower -40 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 259 billion rupiah Cashflow in the fourth quarter 2022.
Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,794 -1,937 -1,879 -1,891 -1,424
- Cash increased 489 to 664 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter
- Liabilities declined 2,380 to 2,088 billion rupiah so net cash improved -1,891 to -1,424 billion rupiah
- With our forecast cashflow & a -181 billion rupiah equity payout -387 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -540 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved, a 64% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
532, 620, 709, 659, 984
- MAPA 20 quarters capital paid improved 659 to 984 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with a -325 billion rupiah liabilities payment & will be 1,338 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 8,808 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.65 X assets with a 5 years payback & a 2% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 851 billion rupiah which means an 10 X valuation. A 17 X valuation gives a 64% higher target price 5,076 rupiah.