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MANU, a 9% higher target price
Current 14 Target 16 +9%

December 27th 2021
1 minute read

Sales grew 35%

• Sales grew 35% in the third quarter to 126 million pounds vs our 99 million pounds forecast.
• This brings the quarterly average to 10% growth.
• We predict average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 145 million pounds in the third quarter of 2022.

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Costs -91 points lower, lower loss

• The cash cost ratio went from -179% to -87% profit from -108 to -16 million pounds in the third quarter.
• The average Cashflow cost ratio is at -103% now.
• We use a lower -81% cost ratio to predict a -4 million pounds profit in the third quarter of 2022.

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Cashflow lower on investment spending

• Free cashflow went from 26 to 7 million pounds in the third quarter with higher -65 million pounds investment Cashflow.
• Average quarterly Cashflow is at 3 million pounds now.
• We assume a lower -15 million pounds investment spending which with higher sales gives a 13 million pounds Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.

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Balance sheet higher leverage

• Cash declined 111 to 99 million pounds in the third quarter.
• Liabilities increased 988 to 1,135 million pounds so net cash worsened -877 to -1,036 million pounds.
• With our forecast cashflow & a -1 million pounds equity payout -53 million pounds liabilities payment net cash will be -983 million pounds in 12 months time.

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Valuation, a 9% higher target price

• MANU capital from the last 23 quarters improved 78 to 89 million pounds in the third quarter​ with a -11 million pounds liabilities payment & will be 143 million pounds in12 months time.
• At the current market value of 1,719 million pounds based on our forecasts it’s at 1.31 X assets with a 24 years payback & a 0% yield.
• Our cashflow forecast is 54 million pounds which means an 32 X valuation. A 35 X valuation gives a 9% higher target price of 16 rupiah.

Data file & model