MAIN cashflow positive again
MAIN.jk Current 545 Target 535 -2%
11/23/2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 4%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-12% 13% 14% 0% 4%
2,136 2,416 2,754 2,755 2,862
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters margin, profit billion rupiah
5% 5% 2% 0% 2%
33 53 -10 -58 5
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
-314 48 205 -131 117
-106 -109 -58 -77 -86
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
167 180 122 273 270
3,336 3,048 3,007 2,843 3,217
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-438 -119 206 -342 37
0 0 0 0 0
11/23/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 34%
- Last 12 months cash flow -7% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital -18% of market cap
- Latest net cash -242% of market cap
Sales grew 4%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-12% 13% 14% 0% 4%
2,136 2,416 2,754 2,755 2,862
- Sales grew 4% in the third quarter to 2,862 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 3% now.
- This brings the average to 8% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 3,066 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters margin, profit billion rupiah
5% 5% 2% 0% 2%
33 53 -10 -58 5
- The cash margin went from 0% to 2% profit from -58 to 5 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cash margin is at 2% now.
- We use a 3% cash margin to predict a 36 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
-314 48 205 -131 117
-106 -109 -58 -77 -86
- Free cashflow went positive again from -208 to 31 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -86 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -23 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -74 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 27 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
167 180 122 273 270
3,336 3,048 3,007 2,843 3,217
- Cash declined 273 to 270 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 2,843 to 3,217 billion rupiah so net cash was down -2,570 to -2,947 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -109 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -2,838 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-438 -119 206 -342 37
0 0 0 0 0
- MAIN.jk paid 37 billion rupiah in the third quarter +37 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity & will pay +109 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market value of 1,220 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.22 X assets with a 53 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 109 billion rupiah which means a 11.2 X valuation. A 11 X valuation gives a -2% lower target price 535 rupiah.
