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MAIN less dull as cashflow turns positive again
MAIN Current 605 Target 842 + 39%
May 13, 2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped 14%
Last 5 quarters
8% 13% -12% 13% 14%
Costs down profit down
Last 5 quarters
-94% -97% -104% -98% -97%
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-33, -95, -421, -61, 147
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-2,639 -2,811 -3,169 -2,868 -2,885
Capital raised improved , a 39% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-29, 10, -428, -547, -341
May 13, 2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped 14%
Last 5 quarters
8% 13% -12% 13% 14%
- Sales jumped 14% in the first quarter to 2,754 billion rupiah 21% above our 2,285 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 7% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 3,154 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs down profit down
Last 5 quarters
-94% -97% -104% -98% -97%
- The cash cost ratio went from -98% to -97% profit from 42 to 11 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -99% now.
- We use the latest -97% cost ratio to predict a 33 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-33, -95, -421, -61, 147
- Free cashflow went from -61 to 147 billion rupiah in the first quarter with lower -58 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -108 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -58 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 42 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-2,639 -2,811 -3,169 -2,868 -2,885
- Cash declined 180 to 122 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities declined 3,048 to 3,007 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -2,868 to -2,885 billion rupiah
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -162 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -2,723 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital raised improved , a 39% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-29, 10, -428, -547, -341
- MAIN 25 quarter capital raised improved -547 to -341 billion rupiah in the first quarter with a -206 billion rupiah liabilities payment & will be -179 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 1,354 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.25 X assets with a 34 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 157 billion rupiah which means a 9 X valuation. A 12 X valuation gives a 39% higher target price 842 rupiah.