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MAIN cashflow positive again

MAIN.jk Current 545 Target 535 -2%

11/23/2022
1 minute read

  • Last 12 months sales growth + 34%
  • Last 12 months cash flow -7% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital -18% of market cap
  • Latest net cash -242% of market cap
​
Sales grew 4%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-12% 13% 14% 0% 4%
2,136 2,416 2,754 2,755 2,862
  • Sales grew 4% in the third quarter to 2,862 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 3% now.
  • This brings the average to 8% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 3,066 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
​
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters margin, profit billion rupiah
5% 5% 2% 0% 2%
33 53 -10 -58 5
  • The cash margin went from 0% to 2% profit from -58 to 5 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at 2% now.
  • We use a 3% cash margin to predict a 36 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
​
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
-314 48 205 -131 117
-106 -109 -58 -77 -86
  • Free cashflow went positive again from -208 to 31 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -86 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at -23 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -74 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 27 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.

Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
167 180 122 273 270
3,336 3,048 3,007 2,843 3,217
  • Cash declined 273 to 270 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 2,843 to 3,217 billion rupiah so net cash was down -2,570 to -2,947 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -109 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -2,838 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-438 -119 206 -342 37
0 0 0 0 0
  • MAIN.jk paid 37 billion rupiah in the third quarter +37 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity & will pay +109 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market value of 1,220 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.22 X assets with a 53 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 109 billion rupiah which means a 11.2 X valuation. A 11 X valuation gives a -2% lower target price 535 rupiah.
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