MA Sales grew 1%
Current 373 Target 385 + 3%
Feb 7, 2023
1 minute read
Sales grew 1%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly sales
5% -1% 6% 5% 1%
5,216 ; 5,167 ; 5,497 ; 5,756 ; 5,817 million dollars
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash profit margin, net profit
55% 60% 53% 52% 53%
2,379 ; 2,631 ; 2,275 ; 2,499 ; 2,525 million dollars
Cashflow less positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
3,189 ; 1,782 ; 2,457 ; 3,856 ; 3,100 million dollars
-438 ; -288 ; -524 ; -308 ; -350 million dollars
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
7,421 ; 6,879 ; 5,921 ; 7,633 ; 7,008 million dollars
30,257 ; 30,033 ; 29,969 ; 31,169 ; 32,347 million dollars
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
-154 ; -837 ; 0 ; -278 ; 732 million dollars
1,771 ; 2,991 ; 2,821 ; 2,017 ; 2,882 million dollars
Feb 7, 2023
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 12%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 3% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) + 3% of market cap
- Latest cash minus liabilities -7% of market cap
Sales grew 1%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly sales
5% -1% 6% 5% 1%
5,216 ; 5,167 ; 5,497 ; 5,756 ; 5,817 million dollars
- Sales grew 1% in the fourth quarter to 5,817 million dollars .
- This brings the quarterly average to 3% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 6,352 million dollars in the fourth quarter 2023.
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash profit margin, net profit
55% 60% 53% 52% 53%
2,379 ; 2,631 ; 2,275 ; 2,499 ; 2,525 million dollars
- The cash profit margin went from 52% to 53% net profit from 2,499 to 2,525 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
- The average margin is at 55% now.
- We use a 55% cash profit margin to predict a 2,922 million dollars net profit in the fourth quarter 2023.
Cashflow less positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
3,189 ; 1,782 ; 2,457 ; 3,856 ; 3,100 million dollars
-438 ; -288 ; -524 ; -308 ; -350 million dollars
- Free cashflow went from 3,548 to 2,750 million dollars in the fourth quarter with -350 million dollars investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 2,431 million dollars now.
- We assume -368 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 2,966 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
7,421 ; 6,879 ; 5,921 ; 7,633 ; 7,008 million dollars
30,257 ; 30,033 ; 29,969 ; 31,169 ; 32,347 million dollars
- Cash declined 7,633 to 7,008 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
- Liabilities increased 31,169 to 32,347 million dollars so net cash was down -23,536 to -25,339 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -11,163 million dollars equity payout -699 million dollars liabilities net cash will be -24,640 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
-154 ; -837 ; 0 ; -278 ; 732 million dollars
1,771 ; 2,991 ; 2,821 ; 2,017 ; 2,882 million dollars
- MA paid 3,614 million dollars in the fourth quarter 732 million dollars liabilities 2,882 million dollars equity, will pay 11,862 million dollars this next 12 months.
- At the current market cap of 356,559 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 9.38 X assets with a 3 years payback & a 3% yield forecast.
- Our cashflow forecast is 11,862 million dollars which means a 30 X valuation. A 31 X valuation gives a 3% higher target price 385 dollars.
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