Other stocks here
LULU, quite sharp with still strong sales growth, but expensive
LULU Current 279 Target 313 + 12%
Jun 30, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -24%
Last 5 quarters
-29% 18% -0% 47% -24%
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters
-83% -66% -55% -99% -115%
Cashflow negative from working capital
Last 5 quarters million dollars
128, 298, 345, 190, -344
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-510 -564 -920 -942 -1,380
Capital paid improved , a 12% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
970, 1,261, 1,784, 2,105, 2,365
Jun 30, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -24%
Last 5 quarters
-29% 18% -0% 47% -24%
- Sales declined seasonally -24% in the first quarter to 1,614 million dollars 6% above our 1,523 million dollars forecast.
- This brings the average to 10% growth.
- We predict average growth of 9% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,911 million dollars in the first quarter 2023.
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters
-83% -66% -55% -99% -115%
- The cash cost ratio went from -99% to -115% profit from -64 to 190 million dollars in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -84% now.
- We use the average -84% cost ratio to predict a 234 million dollars profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative from working capital
Last 5 quarters million dollars
128, 298, 345, 190, -344
- Free cashflow went negative from 190 to -344 million dollars in the first quarter with lower -101 million dollars investment gains but negative working capital .
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 122 million dollars now.
- We assume -101 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives higher 212 million dollars Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-510 -564 -920 -942 -1,380
- Cash declined 1,260 to 649 million dollars in the first quarter.
- Liabilities declined 2,202 to 2,029 million dollars so net cash worsened -942 to -1,380 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -778 million dollars equity payout -109 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -1,271 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved , a 12% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
970, 1,261, 1,784, 2,105, 2,365
- LULU 17 quarter capital paid improved 2,105 to 2,365 million dollars in the first quarter with 0 million dollars liabilities + 260 million dollars equity & will be 3,252 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 35,556 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 7.43 X assets with a 4 years payback & a 2% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 887 million dollars which means a 40 X valuation. A 45 X valuation gives a 12% higher target price 313 dollars.
