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LTLS sharp at 3X forecast cashflow
LTLS Current 1,305 Target 1,953 + 50%
Jul 26, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -7%
Last 5 quarters
1,584 1,651 1,908 2,102 1,961
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-95% -93% -89% -93% -94%
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
71 25 144 131 -119
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-2,862 -2,830 -3,025 -3,081 -3,189
Cumulative capital paid improved a 50% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
963 995 1,098 1,201 1,362
Jul 26, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -7%
Last 5 quarters
1,584 1,651 1,908 2,102 1,961
- Sales declined -7% in the second quarter to 1,961 billion rupiah -9% below our 2,165 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 6% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,203 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-95% -93% -89% -93% -94%
- The cash cost ratio went from -93% to -94% profit from 104 to 86 billion rupiah in the second quarter
- The average cost ratio is at -92% now.
- We use the average -92% cost ratio to predict a 140 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
71 25 144 131 -119
- Free cashflow went from 131 to -119 billion rupiah in the second quarter with 17 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 45 billion rupiah now.
- We assume lower -3 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 607 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-2,862 -2,830 -3,025 -3,081 -3,189
- Cash declined 527 to 245 billion rupiah in the second quarter
- Liabilities declined 3,608 to 3,434 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -3,081 to -3,189 billion rupiah
- With our forecast cashflow & a -108 billion rupiah equity payout -499 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -2,630 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Cumulative capital paid improved a 50% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
963 995 1,098 1,201 1,362
- LTLS 14 quarter cumulative capital paid improved 1,201 to 1,362 billion rupiah in the second quarter with + 86 billion rupiah from liabilities + 76 billion rupiah equity & will be 1,969 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 2,029 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.33 X assets with a 10 years payback & a 5% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 607 billion rupiah which means a 3 X valuation. A 5 X valuation gives a 50% higher target price 1,953 rupiah.
