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LTLS looking very sharp with a 9% yield forecast
LTLS Current 775 Target 1,972 + 154%
Apr 27, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 10%
Last 5 quarters
8% 6% 4% 16% 10%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-94% -95% -93% -89% -93%
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
146, 71, 25, 144, 131
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-2,826 ,-2,773, -2,741, -2,937, -3,081
Capital paid improved, a 154% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
972, 963, 995, 1,098, 1,201
Apr 27, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 10%
Last 5 quarters
8% 6% 4% 16% 10%
- Sales grew 10% in the first quarter to 2,102 billion rupiah 11% above our 1,889 billion rupiah forecast!
- This brings the average to 9% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,389 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-94% -95% -93% -89% -93%
- The cash cost ratio went from -89% to -93% profit from 149 to 104 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -92% now.
- We use the average -92% cost ratio to predict a 149 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
146, 71, 25, 144, 131
- Free cashflow went from 144 to 131 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -3 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 93 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -3 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 159 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-2,826 ,-2,773, -2,741, -2,937, -3,081
- Cash declined 587 to 527 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 3,524 to 3,608 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -2,937 to -3,081 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -113 billion rupiah equity payout -579 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -2,502 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved, a 154% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
972, 963, 995, 1,098, 1,201
- LTLS 13 quarter capital paid improved 1,098 to 1,201 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -73 billion rupiah liabilities -30 billion rupiah equity payments & will be 1,805 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 1,187 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.19 X assets with a 10 years payback & a 9% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 604 billion rupiah which means an 2 X valuation. A 5 X valuation gives a 154% higher target price 1,972 rupiah.