LTLS at 0.37X assets
LTLS Current 1,420 Target 2,143 + 51%
Oct 26, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -1%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
4% 16% 10% -7% -1%
1,651 1,908 2,102 1,961 1,948
Costs flat profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-93% -89% -93% -94% -94%
67 149 104 86 84
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
33 78 134 -136 73
-7 66 -3 17 -9
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
457 499 527 245 296
5,660 6,226 6,412 6,286 6,048
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
995 1,098 1,201 1,362 1,374
31 117 73 86 9
0 -14 30 76 3
Oct 26, 2022
1 minute read
- LTLS last 12 months sales growth + 18%
- LTLS last 12 months cash flow + 10% of market cap
- LTLS last 12 months Capital + 17% of market cap
- LTLS latest net cash -261% of market cap
Sales declined seasonally -1%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
4% 16% 10% -7% -1%
1,651 1,908 2,102 1,961 1,948
- Sales declined seasonally -1% in the third quarter to 1,948 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -1% now.
- This brings the average to 5% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,272 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs flat profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-93% -89% -93% -94% -94%
67 149 104 86 84
- The cash cost ratio went flat at -94% profit declined from 86 to 84 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -92% now.
- We use the average -92% cost ratio to predict a 136 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
33 78 134 -136 73
-7 66 -3 17 -9
- Free cashflow went positive again from -119 to 64 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -9 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 55 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -9 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 167 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
457 499 527 245 296
5,660 6,226 6,412 6,286 6,048
- Cash increased 245 to 296 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 6,286 to 6,048 billion rupiah so net cash was up -6,041 to -5,752 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -111 billion rupiah equity payout -555 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -2,338 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
995 1,098 1,201 1,362 1,374
31 117 73 86 9
0 -14 30 76 3
- LTLS cumulative capital improved 1,362 to 1,374 billion rupiah with + 9 & + 3 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be 2,040 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 2,208 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.37 X assets with a 9 years payback & a 5% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 666 billion rupiah (vs 220 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 3 X valuation. A 5 X valuation gives a 51% higher target price 2,143 rupiah.
