LSIP 12% yield forecast
LSIP Current 1,230 Target 2,958 + 140%
Aug 13, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 68%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-18% 18% 2% -36% 68%
981 1,162 1,187 765 1,282
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-71% -69% -72% -47% -73%
204 251 239 304 244
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
361 391 634 140 351
-72 -83 -111 -51 -87
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
2,685 2,848 3,368 3,461 3,750
1,816 1,851 1,679 1,730 1,786
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
1,462 1,599 1,600 1,600 1,600
1 1 1 0 0
136 0 0 0 0
Aug 13, 2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months cash flow + 14% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 2% of market cap
- Latest net cash 23% of market cap
Sales grew 68%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-18% 18% 2% -36% 68%
981 1,162 1,187 765 1,282
- Sales grew 68% in the second quarter to 1,282 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is 10% now.
- This brings the average to 13% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,372 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-71% -69% -72% -47% -73%
204 251 239 304 244
- The cash cost ratio went from -47% to -73% profit from 304 to 244 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -65% now.
- We use the average -65% cost ratio to predict a 374 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
361 391 634 140 351
-72 -83 -111 -51 -87
- Free cashflow went from 89 to 264 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -87 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 296 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -69 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 388 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
2,685 2,848 3,368 3,461 3,750
1,816 1,851 1,679 1,730 1,786
- Cash increased 3,461 to 3,750 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 1,730 to 1,786 billion rupiah so net cash was up 1,731 to 1,964 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -988 billion rupiah equity payout -288 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be 2,528 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
1,462 1,599 1,600 1,600 1,600
1 1 1 0 0
136 0 0 0 0
- LSIP cumulative capital improved 1,600 to 1,600 billion rupiah with 0 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be 2,876 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 8,389 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.66 X assets with a 6 years payback & a 12% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 1,552 billion rupiah which means a 5 X valuation. A 13 X valuation gives a 140% higher target price 2,958 rupiah.
