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Picture

LSIP 8% yield forecast (at least)

LSIP.jk Current 1,085 Target 2,304 + 112%

12/1/2022
1 minute read

  • Last 12 months sales growth -14%
  • Last 12 months cash flow + 14% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital + 5% of market cap
  • Latest net cash 24% of market cap

Sales declined -22%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
18% 2% -36% 68% -22%
1,162 1,187 765 1,282 998
  • Sales declined -22% in the third quarter to 998 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 3% now.
  • This brings the average to 3% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,141 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
​
Margin up profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
31% 28% 53% 27% 31%
251 239 304 244 215
  • The cash margin went from 27% to 31% profit from 244 to 215 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at 35% now.
  • We use a 35% cash margin to predict a 298 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
​
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
391 634 140 351 266
-83 -111 -51 -87 -84
  • Free cashflow went from 264 to 182 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -84 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 264 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -84 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 302 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
​
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
2,848 3,368 3,461 3,750 3,607
1,851 1,679 1,730 1,786 1,814
  • Cash declined 3,750 to 3,607 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 1,786 to 1,814 billion rupiah so net cash was down 1,964 to 1,793 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -572 billion rupiah equity payout -336 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be 2,429 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
1 1 0 0 0
136 0 0 0 348
  • LSIP.jk paid 348 billion rupiah in the third quarter 0 billion rupiah liabilities 348 billion rupiah equity , will pay 909 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market value of 7,400 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.59 X assets with a 10 years payback & a 8% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 1,208 billion rupiah which means a 6 X valuation. A 13 X valuation gives a 112% higher target price 2,304 rupiah.
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