LSIP 8% yield forecast (at least)
LSIP.jk Current 1,085 Target 2,304 + 112%
12/1/2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -22%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
18% 2% -36% 68% -22%
1,162 1,187 765 1,282 998
Margin up profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
31% 28% 53% 27% 31%
251 239 304 244 215
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
391 634 140 351 266
-83 -111 -51 -87 -84
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
2,848 3,368 3,461 3,750 3,607
1,851 1,679 1,730 1,786 1,814
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
1 1 0 0 0
136 0 0 0 348
12/1/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth -14%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 14% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 5% of market cap
- Latest net cash 24% of market cap
Sales declined -22%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
18% 2% -36% 68% -22%
1,162 1,187 765 1,282 998
- Sales declined -22% in the third quarter to 998 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 3% now.
- This brings the average to 3% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,141 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Margin up profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
31% 28% 53% 27% 31%
251 239 304 244 215
- The cash margin went from 27% to 31% profit from 244 to 215 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cash margin is at 35% now.
- We use a 35% cash margin to predict a 298 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
391 634 140 351 266
-83 -111 -51 -87 -84
- Free cashflow went from 264 to 182 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -84 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 264 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -84 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 302 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
2,848 3,368 3,461 3,750 3,607
1,851 1,679 1,730 1,786 1,814
- Cash declined 3,750 to 3,607 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 1,786 to 1,814 billion rupiah so net cash was down 1,964 to 1,793 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -572 billion rupiah equity payout -336 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be 2,429 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
1 1 0 0 0
136 0 0 0 348
- LSIP.jk paid 348 billion rupiah in the third quarter 0 billion rupiah liabilities 348 billion rupiah equity , will pay 909 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market value of 7,400 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.59 X assets with a 10 years payback & a 8% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 1,208 billion rupiah which means a 6 X valuation. A 13 X valuation gives a 112% higher target price 2,304 rupiah.