LPPF 8% yield forecast
LPPF Current 4,600 Target 9,190 + 100%
October 21, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -51%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-78% 860% -75% 84% -51%
320 3,070 770 1,416 693
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-58% -77% -56% -32% -52%
-94 474 145 773 136
Cashflow seasonally negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
-342 918 722 628 -64
-9 -143 -72 -37 -86
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
469 661 507 136 213
4,717 4,845 5,794 4,857 5,021
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
7,742 8,077 8,722 9,499 9,420
0 0 0 0 -130
120 335 645 777 51
October 21, 2022
1 minute read
- LPPF last 12 months sales growth + 117%
- LPPF last 12 months cash flow + 16% of market cap
- LPPF last 12 months Capital + 15% of market cap
- LPPF latest net cash -42% of market cap
Sales declined seasonally -51%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-78% 860% -75% 84% -51%
320 3,070 770 1,416 693
- Sales declined seasonally -51% in the third quarter to 693 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 6% now.
- This brings the average to 205% growth.
- We predict average growth of 42% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,947 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-58% -77% -56% -32% -52%
-94 474 145 773 136
- The cash cost ratio went from -32% to -52% profit from 773 to 136 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -54% now.
- We use the average -54% cost ratio to predict a 1,129 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow seasonally negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
-342 918 722 628 -64
-9 -143 -72 -37 -86
- Free cashflow went from 592 to -149 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -86 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 467 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -65 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 569 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
469 661 507 136 213
4,717 4,845 5,794 4,857 5,021
- Cash increased 136 to 213 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 4,857 to 5,021 billion rupiah so net cash was down -4,721 to -4,808 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & -956 billion rupiah equity -886 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -3,505 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
7,742 8,077 8,722 9,499 9,420
0 0 0 0 -130
120 335 645 777 51
- LPPF cumulative capital worsened 9,499 to 9,420 billion rupiah with -130 & + 51 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be 11,262 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 11,397 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 2.12 X assets with a 2 years payback & a 8% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 2,277 billion rupiah (vs 1,237 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 5 X valuation. A 10 X valuation gives a 100% higher target price 9,190 rupiah.
