Other stocks here
LPPF lower sales, but still sharp as average Cashflow rises
LPPF Current 5,800 Target 9,094 + 57%
Apr 28, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -75%
Last 5 quarters
-23% 96% -78% 860% -75%
Costs down profit down
Last 5 quarters
-103% -33% -58% -77% -56%
Cashflow lower, but average rising
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
307, 1,199, -430, 527, 496
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-5,596, -4,295, -4,248, -4,184, -5,287
Capital paid improved , a 57% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
7,142, 7,622, 7,742, 8,077, 8,722
Apr 28, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -75%
Last 5 quarters
-23% 96% -78% 860% -75%
- Sales declined -75% in the first quarter to 770 billion rupiah -64% below our 2,149 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average growth to 201% growth.
- We predict average growth of 24% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,366 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs down profit down
Last 5 quarters
-103% -33% -58% -77% -56%
- The cash cost ratio went from -77% to -56% profit from 474 to 145 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -56% now.
- We use the average -56% cost ratio to predict a 410 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower, but average rising
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
307, 1,199, -430, 527, 496
- Free cashflow went from 527 to 496 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -72 billion rupiah investment spending .
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 448 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -72 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 379 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-5,596, -4,295, -4,248, -4,184, -5,287
- Cash declined 661 to 507 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 4,845 to 5,794 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -4,184 to -5,287 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -514 billion rupiah equity payout -1,075 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -4,719 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved , a 57% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
7,142, 7,622, 7,742, 8,077, 8,722
- LPPF 29 quarter capital paid improved 8,077 to 8,722 billion rupiah in the first quarter with a -645 billion rupiah equity payout & will be 10,311 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 15,232 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 2.37 X assets with a 4 years payback & a 3% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 1,592 billion rupiah which means an 10 X valuation. A 15 X valuation gives a 57% higher target price 9,094 rupiah.