LPKR more negative cashflow
LPKR Current 119 Target 100 -16%
Sep 7, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 4%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
12% -3% 50% -40% 4%
3,822 3,722 5,578 3,336 3,478
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-91% -99% -104% -105% -105%
-288 -562 -1,042 -495 -572
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
-641 -558 2,322 -23 -1,219
-178 77 -4,053 -164 -545
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
5,622 4,892 4,888 4,434 3,123
41,227 40,350 29,595 29,787 30,248
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
-22,445 -22,254 -23,683 -23,397 -23,865
-1,258 191 -1,682 287 -580
0 0 253 0 111
Sep 7, 2022
1 minute read
- LPKR last 12 months sales growth -9%
- LPKR last 12 months cash flow -49% of market cap
- LPKR last 12 months Capital -17% of market cap
- LPKR latest net cash -322% of market cap
Sales grew 4%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
12% -3% 50% -40% 4%
3,822 3,722 5,578 3,336 3,478
- Sales grew 4% in the second quarter to 3,478 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 2% now.
- This brings the average to 3% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% again in this next 12 months to bring sales to 3,591 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-91% -99% -104% -105% -105%
-288 -562 -1,042 -495 -572
- The cash cost ratio went from -105% to -105% profit from -495 to -572 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -103% now.
- We use a -91% cost ratio to predict a -63 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
-641 -558 2,322 -23 -1,219
-178 77 -4,053 -164 -545
- Free cashflow went from -187 to -1,764 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -545 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -1,040 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -164 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives -16 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
5,622 4,892 4,888 4,434 3,123
41,227 40,350 29,595 29,787 30,248
- Cash declined 4,434 to 3,123 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 29,787 to 30,248 billion rupiah so net cash was down -25,353 to -27,125 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout + 63 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -26,398 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
-22,445 -22,254 -23,683 -23,397 -23,865
-1,258 191 -1,682 287 -580
0 0 253 0 111
- LPKR cumulative capital worsened -23,397 to -23,865 billion rupiah with -580 & + 111 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be -23,928 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 8,425 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.17 X assets with a 82 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our 12m operating cashflow forecast is 593 billion rupiah (vs 523 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 14 X valuation. A 12 X valuation gives a -16% lower target price 100 rupiah.
