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LPKR still dull but cheap
LPKR Current 124 Target 140 + 13%
Apr 29, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -40%
Last 5 quarters
1% 12% -3% 50% -40%
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters
-70% -91% -99% -104% -105%
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
1,927 -819 -480 -1,730 -187
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-35,513 -35,605 -35,458 -24,707 -25,353
Capital raised improved , a 13% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-21,187 -22,445 -22,254 -23,683 -23,397
Apr 29, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -40%
Last 5 quarters
1% 12% -3% 50% -40%
- Sales declined -40% in the first quarter to 3,336 billion rupiah -38% below our 5,411 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 5% growth.
- We predict average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 4,088 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters
-70% -91% -99% -104% -105%
- The cash cost ratio went from -104% to -105% profit from -1,042 to -495 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -100% now.
- We use a lower -91% cost ratio to predict a 36 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
1,927 -819 -480 -1,730 -187
- Free cashflow went less negative from -1,730 to -187 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -164 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -804 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -164 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a positive 209 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-35,513 -35,605 -35,458 -24,707 -25,353
- Cash declined 4,888 to 4,434 billion rupiah in the first quarter
- Liabilities increased 29,595 to 29,787 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -24,707 to -25,353 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -764 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -24,589 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital raised improved , a 13% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-21,187 -22,445 -22,254 -23,683 -23,397
- LPKR 29 quarter capital raised improved -23,683 to -23,397 billion rupiah in the first quarter with a -287 billion rupiah liabilities payment & will be -22,293 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 8,783 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.17 X assets with a 96 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 494 billion rupiah which means an 18 X valuation. A 20 X valuation gives a 13% higher target price 140 rupiah.