LPKR less negative cashflow
LPKR Current 97 Target 86 -12%
11/5/22
1 minute read
Sales grew 7%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-3% 50% -40% 4% 7%
3,722 5,578 3,336 3,478 3,730
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-99% -104% -105% -105% -106%
-562 -1,042 -495 -572 -607
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow & investment billion rupiah
-558 2,322 -23 -1,219 -128
77 -4,053 -164 -545 -461
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
4,892 4,888 4,434 3,123 2,793
40,350 29,595 29,787 30,248 30,657
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-22,254 -23,683 -23,397 -23,865 -24,116
191 -1,682 287 -580 -251
0 253 0 111 0
11/5/22
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 0%
- Last 12 months cash flow -62% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital -27% of market cap
- Latest net cash -406% of market cap
Sales grew 7%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-3% 50% -40% 4% 7%
3,722 5,578 3,336 3,478 3,730
- Sales grew 7% in the third quarter to 3,730 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 1% now.
- This brings the average to 5% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 4,393 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-99% -104% -105% -105% -106%
-562 -1,042 -495 -572 -607
- The cash cost ratio went from -105% to -106% profit from -572 to -607 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -105% now.
- We use a -99% cost ratio to predict a -334 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow & investment billion rupiah
-558 2,322 -23 -1,219 -128
77 -4,053 -164 -545 -461
- Free cashflow went from -1,764 to -589 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -461 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -1,067 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -461 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives -634 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
4,892 4,888 4,434 3,123 2,793
40,350 29,595 29,787 30,248 30,657
- Cash declined 3,123 to 2,793 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 30,248 to 30,657 billion rupiah so net cash was down -27,125 to -27,864 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout + 2,538 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -29,556 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-22,254 -23,683 -23,397 -23,865 -24,116
191 -1,682 287 -580 -251
0 253 0 111 0
- LPKR cumulative capital worsened -23,865 to -24,116 billion rupiah with -251 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be -26,653 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 6,867 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.13 X assets with a -70 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our 12m operating cashflow forecast is 152 billion rupiah which means a 45 X valuation. A 40 X valuation gives a -12% lower target price 86 rupiah.
