LPCK at (close to) break even
LPCK Current 1,115 Target 1,140 + 2%
Aug 7, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 43%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
74% 27% 26% -53% 43%
416, 526, 664, 314, 451
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-62% -81% -136% -76% -70%
165 108 -231 91 132
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
54 -35 133 69 -134
5 -9 -56 -2 2
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
591 377 376 374 255
3,044 2,772 2,728 2,700 2,601
Capital improved slightly
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-7,893 -7,724 -7,646 -7,576 -7,525
16 19 19 69 52
0 150 59 0 0
Aug 7, 2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months cash flow -1% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 12% of market cap
- Latest net cash -79% of market cap
Sales grew 43%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
74% 27% 26% -53% 43%
416, 526, 664, 314, 451
- Sales grew 43% in the second quarter to 451 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 22% now.
- This brings the average to 11% growth.
- We predict average quarter growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 531 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-62% -81% -136% -76% -70%
165 108 -231 91 132
- The cash cost ratio went from -76% to -70% profit from 91 to 132 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -91% now.
- We use a -73% cost ratio to predict a 137 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
54 -35 133 69 -134
5 -9 -56 -2 2
- Free cashflow went negative from 67 to -132 billion rupiah in the second quarter with positive 2 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is slightly negative at -8 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -0 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 122 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
591 377 376 374 255
3,044 2,772 2,728 2,700 2,601
- Cash declined 374 to 255 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 2,700 to 2,601 billion rupiah so net cash was down -2,326 to -2,346 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -47 billion rupiah equity payout -442 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -1,904 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved slightly
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-7,893 -7,724 -7,646 -7,576 -7,525
16 19 19 69 52
0 150 59 0 0
- LPCK cumulative capital improved slightly -7,576 to -7,525 billion rupiah with + 52 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be -7,036 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 2,988 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.32 X assets with a 73 years payback & a 2% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 122 billion rupiah which means a 24 X valuation. A 25 X valuation gives a 2% higher target price 1,140 rupiah.
