LINK cashflow negative again
LINK Current 4,750 Target 4,520 -5%
Aug 31, 2022
1 minute read
Sales flat
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
2% -0% 13% -14% 0%
1,087 1,086 1,223 1,055 1,055
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-50% -51% -58% -58% -60%
223 215 198 128 13
Cashflow negative again
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
274 343 625 424 481
-558 -798 -1,065 -382 -608
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
281 426 270 247 163
3,772 4,256 4,498 4,925 5,324
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
1,416 165 516 582 541
683 -883 -300 66 -41
0 283 0 0 0
Aug 31, 2022
1 minute read
- LINK last 12 months sales growth -3%
- LINK last 12 months cash flow -7% of market cap
- LINK last 12 months Capital -7% of market cap
- LINK latest net cash -39% of market cap
Sales flat
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
2% -0% 13% -14% 0%
1,087 1,086 1,223 1,055 1,055
- Sales were flat in the second quarter at 1,055 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -0% now.
- This brings the average to 0% growth.
- We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,085 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-50% -51% -58% -58% -60%
223 215 198 128 13
- The cash cost ratio went from -58% to -60% profit from 128 to 13 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -57% now.
- We use the average -57% cost ratio to predict a 109 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative again
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
274 343 625 424 481
-558 -798 -1,065 -382 -608
- Free cashflow went negative again from 42 to -127 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -608 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -245 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -382 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives positive 97 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
281 426 270 247 163
3,772 4,256 4,498 4,925 5,324
- Cash declined 247 to 163 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 4,925 to 5,324 billion rupiah so net cash was down -4,678 to -5,161 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -389 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -4,772 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
1,416 165 516 582 541
683 -883 -300 66 -41
0 283 0 0 0
- LINK cumulative capital worsened 582 to 541 billion rupiah with -41 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter but will be 929 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 13,070 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.68 X assets with a 27 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 389 billion rupiah (vs -980 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 34 X valuation. A 32 X valuation gives a -5% lower target price 4,520 rupiah.
