LINK more negative cashflow
LINK.jk Current 3,300 Target 2,725 -17%
11/21/2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 2%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-0% 13% -14% 0% 2%
1,086 1,223 1,055 1,055 1,080
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-50% -52% -54% -57% -59%
215 198 128 13 105
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
343 625 424 481 280
-798 -1,065 -382 -608 -1,261
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
426 270 247 163 152
4,256 4,498 4,925 5,324 5,590
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-883 -300 66 -41 -1,069
283 0 0 0 0
11/21/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth -1%
- Last 12 months cash flow -17% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital -15% of market cap
- Latest net cash -60% of market cap
Sales grew 2%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-0% 13% -14% 0% 2%
1,086 1,223 1,055 1,055 1,080
- Sales grew 2% in the third quarter to 1,080 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 3% now.
- This brings the average to 0% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,143 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-50% -52% -54% -57% -59%
215 198 128 13 105
- The cash cost ratio went from -57% to -59% profit from 13 to 105 billion rupiah in the third quarter on lower non cash costs.
- The average cost ratio is at -55% now.
- We use a -59% cost ratio to predict a 119 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
343 625 424 481 280
-798 -1,065 -382 -608 -1,261
- Free cashflow went more negative from -127 to -981 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -1,261 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -377 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -382 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 85 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
426 270 247 163 152
4,256 4,498 4,925 5,324 5,590
- Cash declined 163 to 152 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 5,324 to 5,590 billion rupiah so net cash was down -5,161 to -5,438 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -341 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -5,097 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-883 -300 66 -41 -1,069
283 0 0 0 0
- LINK.jk (raised) -1,069 billion rupiah in the third quarter -1,069 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity but will pay 341 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market value of 9,080 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.81 X assets with a 33 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 341 billion rupiah which means a 27 X valuation. A 22 X valuation gives a -17% lower target price 2,725 rupiah.
