Other stocks here
LINK dull after 5 quarters negative cashflow
LINK Current 4,390 Target 3,931 -10%
Apr 2, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 13%
Last 5 quarters
7% -2% 2% -0% 13%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-52% -47% -50% -51% -58%
Cashflow 5 quarters negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-250 -112 -284 -455 -440
Balance sheet higher leverage
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-2,817 -2,988 -3,491 -3,830 -4,228
Capital paid worsened, a -10% lower target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
1733, 733, 1,416, 816, 516
Apr 2, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 13%
Last 5 quarters
7% -2% 2% -0% 13%
- Sales grew 13% in the fourth quarter to 1,223 billion rupiah 7% above our 1,140 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 3% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,336 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 2022.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-52% -47% -50% -51% -58%
- The cash cost ratio went from -51% to -58% profit from 215 to 198 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -51% now.
- We use the average -51% cost ratio to predict a 331 billion rupiah profit in the fourth quarter 2022.
Cashflow 5 quarters negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-250 -112 -284 -455 -440
- Free cashflow was still negative although less so from -455 to -440 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with still high -1,065 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -323 billion rupiah now.
- We assume lower -572 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a positive 84 billion rupiah Cashflow in the fourth quarter 2022.
Balance sheet higher leverage
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-2,817 -2,988 -3,491 -3,830 -4,228
- Cash declined 426 to 270 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- Liabilities increased 4,256 to 4,498 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -3,830 to -4,228 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -121 billion rupiah equity payout -77 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -4,151 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid worsened, a -10% lower target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
1733, 733, 1,416, 816, 516
- LINK 28 quarters capital paid worsened 816 to 516 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with 300 billion rupiah new liabilities but will be 714 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 12,079 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.66 X assets with a 28 years payback & a 1% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 338 billion rupiah which means an 36 X valuation. A 32 X valuation gives a -10% lower target price 3,931 rupiah.