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LINK dull after 5 quarters negative cashflow

LINK Current 4,390 Target 3,931 -10%

Apr 2, 2022
1 minute read
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Sales grew 13%
Last 5 quarters
7% -2% 2% -0% 13%
  • Sales grew 13% in the fourth quarter to 1,223 billion rupiah 7% above our 1,140 billion rupiah forecast.
  • This brings the average to 3% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,336 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 2022.

Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-52% -47% -50% -51% -58%
  • The cash cost ratio went from -51% to -58% profit from 215 to 198 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
  • The average cost ratio is at -51% now.
  • We use the average -51% cost ratio to predict a 331 billion rupiah profit in the fourth quarter 2022.
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Cashflow 5 quarters negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-250 -112 -284 -455 -440
  • Free cashflow was still negative although less so from -455 to -440 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with still high -1,065 billion rupiah investment spending.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at -323 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume lower -572 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a positive 84 billion rupiah Cashflow in the fourth quarter 2022.

Balance sheet higher leverage
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-2,817 -2,988 -3,491 -3,830 -4,228
  • Cash declined 426 to 270 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 4,256 to 4,498 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -3,830 to -4,228 billion rupiah.
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -121 billion rupiah equity payout -77 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -4,151 billion rupiah in 12 months time.

Capital paid worsened, a -10% lower target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
1733, 733, 1,416, 816, 516
  • LINK 28 quarters capital paid worsened 816 to 516 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with 300 billion rupiah new liabilities but will be 714 billion rupiah in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 12,079 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.66 X assets with a 28 years payback & a 1% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 338 billion rupiah which means an 36 X valuation. A 32 X valuation gives a -10% lower target price 3,931 rupiah.
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